It’s time for our weekly look at how the NCAA tournament might shake out if the season ended today. It’s the third installment of something we call “Bracketology” — a look into the thought process behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament.
We’ll be bringing you a new one every week until our final picks just before Selection Sunday. If you take a look at the sidebar, you’ll see our projected brackets from last week; compare and contrast on your own.
Here are the facts:
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
Additionally, the NCAA recently clarified its selection criteria to include a bonus factor in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) for “good” nonconference wins.
One more note: Massachusetts-Lowell’s forfeit losses have been applied as played — not as forfeits — in our projections. Although the NCAA has not issued an official ruling on the matter, it is expected that the NCAA will leave the game results as is for selection purposes. That means that Massachusetts, Michigan State and Union will not receive credit for their forfeit wins over UML.
Given these facts, here are the top 13 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), plus Colgate, Holy Cross and Bemidji State, the leaders in the ECAC, Atlantic Hockey and CHA (through games of February 25, 2004):
1 Boston College
2 Maine
3 North Dakota
4 Minnesota-Duluth
5 Michigan
6 Minnesota
7 Wisconsin
7 New Hampshire
7 Miami
10 St. Cloud State
10 Ohio State
12 Denver
13 Michigan State
14 Colgate
27 Holy Cross
— Bemidji State
There are some differences from last week. North Dakota drops to third, despite a weekend sweep of Minnesota State, enabling Boston College and Maine to move up one spot each in the PairWise. St. Cloud State and Wisconsin have switched spots and Michigan State is in the top 13 while Massachusetts drops out. And Colgate is now the top team in the ECAC, displacing Brown.
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add Colgate, Holy Cross and Bemidji State.
From there, we can start looking at the bubble and ties in a more detailed fashion. There are two ties to break this week: the logjam at No. 7 and the tie at No. 10.
At No. 7, we have a circle among the three teams involved. Wisconsin wins the individual comparison with New Hampshire. New Hampshire wins the comparison with Miami, and Miami wins the comparison with Wisconsin. Oh, what to do? In the past these sorts of ties have been broken by the RPI, where Wisconsin is ahead of New Hampshire, which is ahead of Miami.
At No. 10, St. Cloud State wins the individual comparison with Ohio State. Therefore St. Cloud State gets the No. 10 spot, and Ohio State No. 11.
Thus, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Boston College
2 Maine
3 North Dakota
4 Minnesota-Duluth
5 Michigan
6 Minnesota
7 Wisconsin
8 New Hampshire
9 Miami
10 St. Cloud State
11 Ohio State
12 Denver
13 Michigan State
14 Colgate
15 Holy Cross
16 Bemidji State
Step Two
Assign the seeds:
No. 1 Seeds — Boston College, Maine, North Dakota, Minnesota-Duluth
No. 2 Seeds — Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire
No. 3 Seeds — Miami, St. Cloud State, Ohio State, Denver
No. 4 Seeds — Michigan State, Colgate, Holy Cross, Bemidji State
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals, starting with No. 1 Boston College.
Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional.
Maine is placed in the East Regional.
North Dakota is placed in the West Regional.
Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Midwest Regional.
Now why have we placed North Dakota in the West Regional rather than the Midwest, despite the fact that North Dakota is 70 miles closer to Grand Rapids, Mich., than to Colorado Springs, Colo.? Because in the NCAA’s eyes, a flight is a flight. If you have to get on an airplane, it doesn’t really matter how far you fly. So we give North Dakota, a higher overall seed than Minnesota-Duluth, a WCHA rink to play in, one the Sioux are used to.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that in these bands, teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional). Instead, the seeds are set such that the quarterfinals are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.
Therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
No. 8 New Hampshire goes to the Northeast Regional as the host, which is No. 1 Boston College’s Regional.
No. 7 Wisconsin goes to No. 2 Maine’s Regional, which is the East Regional
No. 6 Minnesota goes to No. 3 North Dakota’s Regional, which is the West Regional.
No. 5 Michigan goes to No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth’s Regional, which is the Midwest Regional.
No. 3 Seeds
Making the same analysis, the first-round matchups should be No. 9 v. No. 8, No. 10 v. No. 7, etc., so:
No. 9 Miami goes to No. 8 New Hampshire’s Regional, which is the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 St. Cloud State goes to No. 7 Wisconsin’s Regional, which is the East Regional.
No. 11 Ohio State goes to No. 6 Minnesota’s Regional, which is the West Regional.
No. 12 Denver goes to No. 5 Michigan’s Regional, which is the Midwest Regional.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Bemidji State goes to No. 1 Boston College’s Regional, which is the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Holy Cross goes to No. 2 Maine’s Regional, which is the East Regional.
No. 14 Colgate goes to No. 3 North Dakota’s Regional, which is the West Regional.
No. 13 Michigan State goes to No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth’s Regional, which is the Midwest Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
Midwest Regional:
13 Michigan State vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Denver vs. 5 Michigan
West Regional:
14 Colgate vs. 3 North Dakota
11 Ohio State vs. 6 Minnesota
East Regional:
15 Holy Cross vs. 2 Maine
10 St. Cloud State vs. 7 Wisconsin
Northeast Regional:
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston College
9 Miami vs. 8 New Hampshire
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have just one, between St. Cloud State and Wisconsin. There really is only one spot for St. Cloud State to move to, and that is into the Northeast Regional, swapping with Miami. So we make that move.
Let’s look now at bracket integrity and attendance issues.
We love the setup in Grand Rapids, with Michigan and Michigan State. Talk about attendance: you’ve got it there.
We would love to get Denver in the West Regional to play in Colorado. But we can’t switch Denver with Ohio State, as that creates a WCHA-WCHA matchup. However, having Colgate in Albany would enhance attendance as well.
Can we switch Holy Cross and Colgate? Yes. What if we also switched out Bemidji State in a three-way trade? Bemidji to the West Regional, Colgate to the East and Holy Cross to the Northeast?
That could work.
But then we have to look at integrity of the seeds. Now you have Bemidji playing the No. 3 overall seed, when the No. 16 Beavers should be playing the No. 1 overall seed. I don’t like that tradeoff. Two teams have to get on airplanes at this point, and the team highest in the PWR should not have to fly, so we only make a Colgate-Holy Cross swap.
That doesn’t damage seeding integrity much, But we are still uncomfortable with swapping the No. 14 PWR team with the No. 27 PWR team. It’s not very fair to the No. 2 team, in this case Maine. I don’t know that I would make that switch.
What about swapping both games, so that Colgate vs. North Dakota will now take place in Albany and Holy Cross vs. Maine in Colorado. But then one extra team has to fly. In the other scenario, only Colgate and North Dakota were flying. This way, Colgate doesn’t fly, but Holy Cross and Maine have to.
We’ll put a hold on these discussions.
There is one more thing that we may want to do: get Boston College away from Manchester. Why? Because to allow the No. 1 seed to play in a pseudo-home rink of a second-round opponent may be an unfair advantage and an unpopular decision, e.g., the situation with Michigan hosting at Yost the last two seasons. We may have this case again here. But it was not changed in the past, and I don’t think it should be changed now.
OK, so now I have to make my final decisions as to this week’s non-bonus bracket. I’ve made one change, Miami swapping with St. Cloud State. That leaves the following final arrangement:
West Regional:
15 Holy Cross vs. 3 North Dakota
11 Ohio State vs. 6 Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
13 Michigan State vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Denver vs. 5 Michigan
East Regional:
14 Colgate vs. 2 Maine
9 Miami vs. 7 Wisconsin
Northeast Regional:
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston College
10 St. Cloud State vs. 8 New Hampshire
I really didn’t like moving Colgate and Holy Cross because Maine would get hosed, but the attendance factor of Colgate in Albany is too much not to make the change.
Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the Midwest and Northeast Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Minnesota-Duluth and Boston College’s brackets), while the winners of the East and West Regionals (Maine and North Dakota’s brackets) play the other semifinal.
But, we may have just wasted all our time and brainpower because…
Bonus Time
We know there is a bonus component to the criteria, the NCAA’s tweak to the system which rewards “good” nonconference wins.
Without official word on the size of the bonuses, we take these numbers: .005 for a good road win, .003 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win, and then we break ties using the method as above.
Does anything change? Absolutely.
1 Boston College
2 Maine
3 North Dakota
4 Minnesota-Duluth
5 Michigan
6 Minnesota
7 Wisconsin
7 New Hampshire
7 Miami
10 St. Cloud State
10 Ohio State
12 Denver
13 Notre Dame
14 Colgate
27 Holy Cross
— Bemidji State
Notre Dame is now in, and Michigan State is out!
How did that happen? Notre Dame gets bonus points for beating Boston College and Wisconsin on the road, and for beating Maine at the Everblades Classic, a neutral site. In our world of 5-3-1, that’s an extra .013 tacked onto the RPI, enough to overtake Michigan State, which has just one quality win, and that at home.
So, using the same logic as above:
West Regional:
15 Holy Cross vs. 3 North Dakota
11 Ohio State vs. 6 Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
13 Notre Dame vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Denver vs. 5 Michigan
East Regional:
14 Colgate vs. 2 Maine
9 Miami vs. 7 Wisconsin
Northeast Regional:
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston College
10 St. Cloud State vs. 8 New Hampshire
That about does it for us with this bonus.
3-2-1
What if we took these numbers: .003 for a good road win, .002 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win?
1 Boston College
2 Maine
3 North Dakota
4 Minnesota-Duluth
5 Michigan
6 Minnesota
7 Wisconsin
7 New Hampshire
7 Miami
10 St. Cloud State
10 Ohio State
12 Denver
13 Notre Dame
14 Colgate
27 Holy Cross
— Bemidji State
It’s the same ranking as if the bonus were 5-3-1, and so our brackets are the same.
See you next week!
