With only three conference championship games left to go, the number of D-I women’s bracket possibilities has narrowed. Here are our final predictions.
As in the past bracketology columns, we’ll predict different outcomes conditional on how many teams the NCAA is willing to fly and when flights are actually necessary.
First, here’s how we predict the NCAA will rank the teams. Automatic bids are given to the WCHA champ, the ECACHL champ (Dartmouth/Harvard), and the Hockey East champ (UConn/Providence). Five other teams are selected at-large. The rankings are based on the NCAA criteria, which are similar to the USCHO.com Pairwise Rankings.
If No. 1 seed Harvard wins the ECACHL Tournament,
1. Minnesota
2. UMD
3. Harvard
4. Dartmouth
5. Wisconsin
6. St. Lawrence
7. Mercyhurst
8. UConn/Providence
If No. 2 seed Dartmouth wins the ECACHL tournament,
1. Minnesota
2. Dartmouth
3. UMD
4. Wisconsin
5. Harvard
6. St. Lawrence
7. Mercyhurst
8. UConn/Providence
See the March 8 Bracketology for the explanation of why we think St. Lawrence will be ranked above Mercyhurst regardless of the CHA outcome and how the USCHO.com Pairwise Rankings lack an RPI adjustment that’s part of the NCAA criteria.
Now for the bracket predictions. Only two teams are seeded and guaranteed not to play each other. Beyond that, the NCAA selection committee generally seeks to minimize the number of teams that fly and the number of intraconference matchups. With non-revenue generating championships like women’s hockey, minimizing flights has typically been the greater priority. For that reason, we believe the first bracket listed below is the most likely outcome, but we’ll list other bracket possibilites to hedge that prediction.
Choice One: One Flight, Two Intraconference Matchups
The bracket pairing, if a flight is necessary only for teams in different conferences more than 300 miles apart:
Mercyhurst at Minnesota
St. Lawrence at ECAC Runner-up
Hockey East champion at ECAC Champion
Wisconsin at Minnesota-Duluth
The bracket pairing, if a flight is necessary for any teams more than 300 miles apart:
Wisconsin at Minnesota
St. Lawrence at Dartmouth
Hockey East champion at Harvard
Mercyhurst at Minnesota-Duluth
Choice Two: Two Flights, One Intraconference Matchup
The bracket pairing, if a flight is necessary only for teams in different conferences more than 300 miles apart:
St. Lawrence at Minnesota
Mercyhurst at ECAC Runner-Up
Hockey East Champion at ECAC Champion
Wisconsin at Minnesota-Duluth
The bracket pairing, if a flight is necessary for any teams more than 300 miles apart:
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Mercyhurst at ECAC Runner-Up
Hockey East Champion at ECAC Champion
St. Lawrence at Minnesota-Duluth
Choice Three: Three Flights, No Intraconference Matchups
Mercyhurst at Minnesota
ECAC Runner-up vs. Wisconsin*
Hockey East Champion at ECAC Champion
St. Lawrence at Minnesota-Duluth
*At Dartmouth, if Dartmouth is ECAC Runner-up. At Wisconsin if Harvard is the ECAC Runner-up
Tune in to CSTV at 6 p.m. ET to see what the committee decides.
