This is the final Bracketology of the season — the one that you’ve been waiting for, in which all the weeks of reading culminates in our projected brackets for the NCAA Division I men’s tournament.
Before we get to the picks, we remind you of the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Additionally, the NCAA recently clarified its selection criteria to include a bonus factor for “good” nonconference wins, those against non-league opponents in the top 15 of the Ratings Percentage Index.
Without official word on the size of the bonuses, we take these numbers: .003 for a good road win, .002 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.
Now remember, nonconference wins against conference opponents do not count toward the bonus. For example, when Alaska-Anchorage defeated Minnesota in the Nye Frontier Classic, that didn’t count.
Given these facts, here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR) with estimated bonus points, as well as autobid qualifiers not in the top 16 (through all games):
1 Boston College
2 Colorado College
3 Denver
4 Minnesota
5 Cornell
6 Michigan
7t North Dakota
7t New Hampshire
9 Harvard
10 Ohio State
11t Wisconsin
11t Boston University
11t Maine
14 Colgate
15 Dartmouth
16t Michigan State
16t Vermont
16t Massachusetts-Lowell
22t Bemidji State
28 Mercyhurst
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add all of the conference leaders, based on winning percentage.
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.
Breaking ties in the PWR using head-to-head comparisons among the tied teams, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Boston College
2 Colorado College
3 Denver
4 Minnesota
5 Cornell
6 Michigan
7 North Dakota
8 New Hampshire
9 Harvard
10 Ohio State
11 Wisconsin
12 Boston University
13 Maine
14 Colgate
15 Bemidji State
16 Mercyhurst
All ties were broken because of individual comparison wins.
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds — Boston College, Colorado College, Denver, Minnesota
No. 2 Seeds — Cornell, Michigan, North Dakota, New Hampshire
No. 3 Seeds — Harvard, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Boston University
No. 4 Seeds — Maine, Colgate, Bemidji State, Mercyhurst
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
We place host schools first and then place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 4 Minnesota is placed in the West Regional in Minneapolis as the host.
No. 1 Boston College is placed in the East Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 Colorado College is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 3 Denver is placed in the Northeast Regional in Amherst.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
No. 8 UNH is placed in No. 1 Boston College’s Regional, the East.
No. 7 North Dakota is placed in No. 2 Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 Denver’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 5 Cornell is placed in No. 4 Minnesota’s Regional, the West.
No. 3 Seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
But we have BU as a host, so we have to slide a little bit.
Therefore:
No. 12 Boston University is placed in No. 8 New Hampshire’s Regional, the East, as the host.
No. 10 Ohio State is placed in No. 6 Michigan’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 9 Harvard is placed in No. 7 North Dakota’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 11 Wisconsin is placed in No. 5 Cornell’s Regional, the West.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, and this time we’re going back to taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Mercyhurst is placed in No. 1 Boston College’s Regional, the East Regional
No. 15 Bemidji State is placed in No. 2 Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 14 Colgate is placed in No. 3 Denver’s Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 13 Maine is placed in No. 4 Minnesota’s Regional, the West Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
13 Maine vs. 4 Minnesota
11 Wisconsin vs. 5 Cornell
Midwest Regional:
15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Colorado College
9 Harvard vs. 7 North Dakota
East Regional:
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
12 Boston University vs. 8 New Hampshire
Northeast Regional:
14 Colgate vs. 3 Denver
10 Ohio State vs. 6 Michigan
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have one, so we have to switch out UNH because we can’t switch out BU. So we switch UNH with Michigan and we have our bracket.
West Regional:
13 Maine vs. 4 Minnesota
11 Wisconsin vs. 5 Cornell
Midwest Regional:
15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Colorado College
9 Harvard vs. 7 North Dakota
East Regional:
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
12 Boston University vs. 6 Michigan
Northeast Regional:
14 Colgate vs. 3 Denver
10 Ohio State vs. 8 New Hampshire
Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the East and West Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Boston College and Minnesota’s brackets), while the winners of the Northeast and Midwest Regionals (Denver and Colorado College’s brackets) play the other semifinal.
Some Thoughts
There are so many things that I find disturbing with this bracket. If you went through to the second round you have these matchups — 4 vs. 5, 2 vs. 7, 1 vs. 6 and 3 vs. 8. I just am not comfortable with it. I want 1 vs. 8 and 3 vs. 6. You can get there by simply switching the Denver vs. Colgate and Mercyhurst vs. Boston College games.
But after that, you have first round matchups of 4-13, 11-5, 15-2, 9-7, 16-1, 12-6, 14-3 and 10-8. That’s four separate mismatches.
We have to see if we can do better.
We’ve already moved BC and Denver’s locations to make a better second round matchup. What can we move to make a better first round equity? We can’t move BU and Wisconsin since BU is the host. But we can move Harvard and Ohio State.
If we do that, what do we have?
West Regional:
13 Maine vs. 4 Minnesota
11 Wisconsin vs. 5 Cornell
Midwest Regional:
15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Colorado College
10 Ohio State vs. 7 North Dakota
East Regional:
14 Colgate vs. 3 Denver
12 Boston University vs. 6 Michigan
Northeast Regional:
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
9 Harvard vs. 8 New Hampshire
Now we only have two games which are out of whack instead of four. And we can’t do a thing about it because BU is a host school.
So let’s run down our checklist.
• We have 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5 matchups possible in the second round.
• We have eight games in the first round, with six of them having perfect competitive equity, and only two games that are one seed off
This is the bracket that I like better.
Another Way, Perhaps?
What if instead of placing BC in Worcester to begin our seeding process, we began with BC in Amherst?
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
We place host schools first and then place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 4 Minnesota is placed in the West Regional in Minneapolis as the host.
No. 1 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Amherst.
No. 2 Colorado College is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 3 Denver is placed in the East Regional in Worcester.
Place the No. 2 seeds.
No. 8 UNH is placed in No. 1 Boston College’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 7 North Dakota is placed in No. 2 Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 Denver’s Regional, the East.
No. 5 Cornell is placed in No. 4 Minnesota’s Regional, the West.
Place the No. 3 seeds.
No. 12 Boston University is placed in No. 6 Michigan’s Regional, the East, as the host.
No. 9 Harvard is placed in No. 8 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 10 Ohio State is placed in No. 7 North Dakota’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 11 Wisconsin is placed in No. 5 Cornell’s Regional, the West.
Place the No. 4 seeds.
No. 16 Mercyhurst is placed in No. 1 Boston College’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 15 Bemidji State is placed in No. 2 Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 14 Colgate is placed in No. 3 Denver’s Regional, the East.
No. 13 Maine is placed in No. 4 Minnesota’s Regional, the West.
Our brackets:
West Regional:
13 Maine vs. 4 Minnesota
11 Wisconsin vs. 5 Cornell
Midwest Regional:
15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Colorado College
10 Ohio State vs. 7 North Dakota
East Regional:
14 Colgate vs. 3 Denver
12 Boston University vs. 6 Michigan
Northeast Regional:
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
9 Harvard vs. 8 New Hampshire
That’s exactly what we came up with before. It matches.
I’ve now done it two ways. It is as close to perfect as you can get with a host school forcing a seed to a regional.
That is our bracket.
We’ll see at 11 a.m. ET Sunday.
