It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology — college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how the NCAA tournament could wind up if the season ended today.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament.
This is the first installment of Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Rochester, N.Y., Northeast — Manchester, N.H., Midwest — Grand Rapids, Mich., West — Denver, Colo.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are three host institutions this year, New Hampshire in Manchester, Western Michigan in Grand Rapids, and Denver in Denver.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Additionally, the NCAA includes a bonus factor for “good” nonconference road wins and throws out “bad” wins, i.e. those wins that lower your RPI. The NCAA also will only use the Teams Under Consideration criterion if that team has played at least 10 games against TUCs.
Because of this bonus factor, we won’t even talk about our PairWise Rankings (PWR) without an added bonus. We know that the bonus is at least .003 for a quality road win, so everything we talk about will use this number already factored in.
Given these facts, here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), with the bonus and the conference leaders (through all games of January 16, 2007):
1 New Hampshire
2 Minnesota
3 St. Cloud
4 Notre Dame
5 Denver
6t Maine
6t Clarkson
8 Michigan State
9 Colorado College
10t Boston University
10t Boston College
12t Michigan
12t Vermont
14 Miami
15 North Dakota
16 Bemidji State
20 St. Lawrence
21 Niagara
— Sacred Heart
Current conference leaders:
Atlantic Hockey: RIT (served by Sacred Heart)
CHA: Niagara
CCHA: Notre Dame
ECACHL : St. Lawrence
Hockey East : New Hampshire
WCHA: Minnesota
Notes
• The Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played; i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
• RIT is ineligible for the NCAA tournament; therefore, the next highest team in Atlantic Hockey gets the automatic bid per my criteria stated above. That team is Sacred Heart.
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the Top 16. Those teams are St. Lawrence, Niagara and Sacred Heart.
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.
The bubbles consist of Maine and Clarkson, who are tied for sixth, BU and BC, who are tied for 10th and Michigan and Vermont, who are tied for 12th.
Because St. Lawrence, Niagara and Sacred Heart will take spots 14-16, Miami, North Dakota and Bemidji State are left out.
Looking at the head-to-head PairWise comparisons between Maine and Clarkson, Maine wins the comparison, therefore the Black Bears are sixth in the order. As for BU and BC, BU wins that comparison, therefore it is 10th. And between Michigan and Vermont, it’s Michigan that wins the comparison.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 New Hampshire
2 Minnesota
3 St. Cloud
4 Notre Dame
5 Denver
6 Maine
7 Clarkson
8 Michigan State
9 Colorado College
10 Boston University
11 Boston College
12 Michigan
13 Vermont
14 St. Lawrence
15 Niagara
16 Sacred Heart
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds — New Hampshire, Minnesota, St. Cloud, Notre Dame
No. 2 Seeds — Denver, Maine, Clarkson, Michigan State
No. 3 Seeds — Colorado College, Boston University, Boston College, Michigan
No. 4 Seeds — Vermont, St. Lawrence, Niagara, Sacred Heart
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, this places New Hampshire in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
Because of the fact that New Hampshire is hosting a regional, they are placed first.
No. 1 New Hampshire is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 2 Minnesota is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 3 St. Cloud is placed in the West Regional in Denver.
No. 4 Notre Dame is placed in the East Regional in Rochester.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (except for a host school, which must be assigned to its home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud’s Regional, the West Regional, since Denver is a host institution.
No. 6 Maine is placed in No. 4 Notre Dame’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 7 Clarkson is placed in No. 2 Minnesota’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 8 Michigan State is placed in No. 1 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 3 Seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Therefore:
No. 9 Colorado College is placed in No. 8 Michigan State’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Boston University is placed in No. 7 Clarkson’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Boston College is placed in No. 6 Maine’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 12 Michigan is placed in No. 5 Denver’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Sacred Heart is sent to New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Niagara is sent to Minnesota’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 St. Lawrence is sent to St. Cloud’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 13 Vermont is sent to Notre Dame’s Regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
St. Lawrence vs. St. Cloud
Michigan vs. Denver
Midwest Regional:
Niagara vs. Minnesota
Boston University vs. Clarkson
East Regional:
Vermont vs. Notre Dame
Boston College vs. Maine
Northeast Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. New Hampshire
Colorado College vs. Michigan State
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have one, Boston College vs. Maine. We switch BC with Michigan.
So the tournament is now fixed.
West Regional:
St. Lawrence vs. St. Cloud
Boston College vs. Denver
Midwest Regional:
Niagara vs. Minnesota
Boston University vs. Clarkson
East Regional:
Vermont vs. Notre Dame
Michigan vs. Maine
Northeast Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. New Hampshire
Colorado College vs. Michigan State
Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the West and Midwest Regionals face each other in one semifinal (St. Cloud and Minnesota’s brackets), while the winners of the Northeast and East Regionals (New Hampshire and Notre Dame’s brackets) play the other semifinal.
Another Take
There’s another way to look at all of this. Granted, bracket integrity is the way to go, but is there another way to make the brackets look better and with bracket integrity at the same time?
There is one way and I think it would make a lot of people happy.
Let’s plot it out a little differently than what I have done here. In a perfect world you try to keep the number-one seeds as close to home as possible. Sometimes, it just can’t happen.
But let’s also remember one simple rule:
You can move teams within a band, but not out of them.
So, what if we started out differently?
No. 1 New Hampshire is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 2 Minnesota is placed in the East Regional in Rochester.
No. 3 St. Cloud is placed in the West Regional in Denver.
No. 4 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud’s Regional, the West Regional since Denver is a host institution.
No. 6 Maine is placed in No. 4 Notre Dame’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 7 Clarkson is placed in No. 2 Minnesota’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 8 Michigan State is placed in No. 1 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 9 Colorado College is placed in No. 8 Michigan State’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Boston University is placed in No. 7 Clarkson’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 11 Boston College is placed in No. 6 Maine’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Michigan is placed in No. 5 Denver’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 16 Sacred Heart is sent to New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Niagara is sent to Minnesota’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 14 St. Lawrence is sent to St. Cloud’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 13 Vermont is sent to Notre Dame’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
So our new tournament would look like this:
West Regional:
St. Lawrence vs. St. Cloud
Michigan vs. Denver
Midwest Regional:
Vermont vs. Notre Dame
Boston College vs. Maine
East Regional:
Niagara vs. Minnesota
Boston University vs. Clarkson
Northeast Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. New Hampshire
Colorado College vs. Michigan State
Make the switch of Boston College and Michigan.
Your tournament is now:
West Regional:
St. Lawrence vs. St. Cloud
Boston College vs. Denver
Midwest Regional:
Vermont vs. Notre Dame
Michigan vs. Maine
East Regional:
Niagara vs. Minnesota
Boston University vs. Clarkson
Northeast Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. New Hampshire
Colorado College vs. Michigan State
Now you’re talking.
Michigan and Notre Dame in Grand Rapids. We’ve solved an attendance issue that we were going to have in Grand Rapids with one Western team.
New York teams Clarkson and Niagara in Rochester, along with Michigan and BU. A better attendance number than would have been drawn previously. And an ECACHL team is in a regional hosted by the ECACHL.
Denver has two WCHA teams and BC. I like that.
Manchester only has UNH, but sometimes you have to have faith.
And guess what? Bracket integrity is still there, something that was important to last year’s chair, Marty Scarano, and would presumably still be important.
I know what you’re saying, I’m screwing Minnesota. But you know what, you have to send Minnesota somewhere. Is it Denver? Is it Grand Rapids or is it Rochester? I’ve done it in a way where they’re traveling, but maximizing attendance and at the same time keeping integrity.
That’s my bracket for the first time out.
That’s our first look at Bracketology. Was it what you expected? Was it not?
That’s it for this week; we’ll be back with another analysis next week.
