It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology — College Hockey Style. It’s our weekly look at how the NCAA tournament would wind up if the season ended today.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament.
This is the next installment of Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Rochester, N.Y., Northeast — Manchester, N.H., Midwest — Grand Rapids, Mich., West — Denver, Colo.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are three host institutions this year, New Hampshire in Manchester, Western Michigan in Grand Rapids, and Denver in Denver.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Additionally, the NCAA includes a bonus factor for “good” nonconference road wins and throws out “bad” wins, i.e. those wins that lower your RPI. The NCAA also will only use the Teams Under Consideration criterion if that team has played at least 10 games against TUCs.
Because of this bonus factor, we won’t even talk about our PairWise Rankings (PWR) without an added bonus. We know that the bonus is at least .003 for a quality road win, so everything we talk about will use this number already factored in.
Given these facts, here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), with the bonus and the conference leaders (through all games of February 6, 2007):
1 New Hampshire
2 Minnesota
3 St. Cloud
4 Notre Dame
5 Denver
6 Maine
7 Clarkson
8t Colorado College
8t North Dakota
10t Michigan
10t Boston University
12 Vermont
13t Michigan State
13t Boston College
15 Miami
16 Michigan Tech
17 St. Lawrence
18 Bemidji State
— Sacred Heart
Current conference leaders:
Atlantic Hockey: RIT (served by Sacred Heart)
CHA: Bemidji State
CCHA: Notre Dame
ECACHL : St. Lawrence
Hockey East : New Hampshire
WCHA: Minnesota
Notes
• The Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
• RIT is ineligible for the NCAA tournament, therefore the next highest team in Atlantic Hockey gets the automatic bid per my criteria stated above. That team is Sacred Heart.
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in league leaders not currently in the Top 16. Those teams are St. Lawrence, Bemidji State and Sacred Heart.
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.
The bubbles consist Colorado College and North Dakota at 8, Michigan and Boston University at 10 and Michigan State and Boston College at 13.
Using head-to-head comparisons, Colorado College, Michigan and Boston College each win the individual comparisons to take the higher spots. In the case of Michigan State and Boston College, it matters.
Because St. Lawrence, Bemidji State and Sacred Heart will take spots 14-16, Michigan State, Miami and Michigan Tech are left out.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 New Hampshire
2 Minnesota
3 St. Cloud
4 Notre Dame
5 Denver
6 Maine
7 Clarkson
8 Colorado College
9 North Dakota
10 Michigan
11 Boston University
12 Vermont
13 Boston College
14 St. Lawrence
15 Bemidji State
16 Sacred Heart
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds – New Hampshire, Minnesota, St. Cloud, Notre Dame
No. 2 Seeds – Denver, Maine, Clarkson, Colorado College
No. 3 Seeds – North Dakota, Michigan, Boston University, Vermont
No. 4 Seeds – Boston College, St. Lawrence, Bemidji State, Sacred Heart
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Because New Hampshire is hosting a regional, the Wildcats are placed first.
No. 1 New Hampshire is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 2 Minnesota is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 3 St. Cloud is placed in the East Regional in Rochester.
No. 4 Notre Dame is placed in the West Regional in Denver.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Notre Dame’s Regional, the West Regional, since Denver is a host institution.
No. 6 Maine is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 7 Clarkson is placed in No. 2 Minnesota’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 8 Colorado College is placed in No. 1 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 3 Seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Therefore:
No. 9 North Dakota is placed in No. 8 Colorado College’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Michigan is placed in No. 7 Clarkson’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Boston University is placed in No. 6 Maine’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 12 Vermont is placed in No. 5 Denver’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Sacred Heart is sent to New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Bemidji State is sent to Minnesota’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 St. Lawrence is sent to St. Cloud’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 13 Boston College is sent to Notre Dame’s Regional, the West Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
Boston College vs. Notre Dame
Vermont vs. Denver
Midwest Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Minnesota
Michigan vs. Clarkson
East Regional:
St. Lawrence vs. St. Cloud
Boston University vs. Maine
Northeast Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. New Hampshire
North Dakota vs. Colorado College
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have two — North Dakota vs. Colorado College and Boston University vs. Maine.
We can simply switch North Dakota with Boston University in that band.
So the tournament is now fixed.
West Regional:
Boston College vs. Notre Dame
Vermont vs. Denver
Midwest Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Minnesota
Michigan vs. Clarkson
East Regional:
St. Lawrence vs. St. Cloud
North Dakota vs. Maine
Northeast Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. New Hampshire
Boston University vs. Colorado College
Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the East and Midwest Regionals face each other in one semifinal (St. Cloud and Minnesota’s brackets), while the winners of the Northeast and West Regionals (New Hampshire and Notre Dame’s brackets) play the other semifinal.
