Bracketology 2/16

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All set for version 2.0? We’ll be using the NCAA rankings for this one rather than USCHO PWR. See my previous blog post for the details, but to summarize – we can’t figure out some of the reasoning behind the NCAA rankings, but they’re the official ones, so that’s what we’ll use. AS some point I will probably do two versions – one with USCHO’s PWR (or maybe the KRACH).

Same assumptions as last time.

If the season ended today, the AQs would go to:

ECAC East — Norwich (wins tiebreaker with Southern Maine)

ECAC Northeast — Curry

MIAC — Bethel

NCHA — Wisconsin-River Falls (wins tiebreaker with UW-Stout and St. Norbert)

NESCAC — Bowdoin

SUNYAC — Oswego

Using the PWR:

The Pool B bid goes to Manhattanville, which is the top Pool B team in the PWR and is 3-0-1 in individual matchups over Neumann, the next closest Pool B team.

I’m guessing that the Pool C bids at the moment go to St. Norbert, Mass-Dartmouth and UW-Stout right now. Neumann actually wins head-to-head the PWR comparisons with UW-Stout, taking the Quality Wins and record against ranked teams comparisons, while the Blue Devils have a better winning percentage. But Neumann’s margins are so slim that I think the committee would favor Stout. This is one of those cross-region decisions that will be a tossup on Selection Sunday.

Also, UMass-Dartmouth is a Pool C team right now because of the assumption I made about taking the team currently in first place for the AQ. I’m predicting Mass-Dartmouth, which trails Curry by 2 points with a game in hand and holds the tiebreaker, will win the ECAC Northeast regular season title. If the Corsairs don’t win the AQ, it will be interesting to see how they stack up with, say, UW-Superior. On paper, UMD leads in the criteria, but Superior has played a tougher schedule…and is hosting.

That leaves us a field of (ranked by NCAA Rankings):

East:

  1. Manhattanville
  2. Oswego
  3. Norwich
  4. Mass-Dartmouth
  5. Bowdoin
  6. Curry

West:

  1. St. Norbert
  2. UW-River Falls
  3. UW-Stout
  4. Bethel

This would mean the first round would be:

  • Curry at Norwich
  • Bowdoin at Mass-Dartmouth

Quaterfinals would be:

  • Curry/Norwich at Manhattanville
  • Bowdoin/Mass-Dartmouth at Oswego
  • Bethel at St. Norbert
  • UW-Stout at UW-River Falls

Winners meet in Superior.

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