It’s that time of the year where once again nearly all discussion has turned to the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Expectedly so, many in the West Region are focused on how many Western teams will make this season’s tournament field.
The first stop in attempting to decipher the madness is to take a look at the most recent, and final public, NCAA West Region Poll. It is:
1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-Stout
4. UW-River Falls
5. Adrian
6. Hamline
7. Wis.-Superior
The West has not landed four teams in the field since the 1997-98 season, despite the tournament expanding from eight teams that year, to nine, and now to its present configuration of 10. The magic 6-4 East-West split it something the region heavily desires, though for all intents and purposes it is once again looking like a pipe dream this year.
In fact, it’s looking questionable as to whether the West will even land a third team in this year’s field. Before getting into why, however, let’s take a look at what we know.
What We Know
As a quick refresher, the tournament field is comprised of six automatic Pool A bids which go to the conference tournament champions of the MIAC, NCHA, ECACE, NESCAC, SUNYAC and ECACNE.
There is one Pool B bid, which goes the top-ranked team from the ECACW or MCHA, as the bid is reserved for conferences who do not own a Pool A bid.
The final three bids are Pool C bids, which every team in the country who did not win a Pool A bid is eligible for.
With that in mind:
• St. Norbert is in and will be the top seed in the region. A win over Stout on Saturday will land them the NCHA Pool A bid. A loss and they are a lock for one of the three Pool C bids.
• St. Thomas is in. The Tommies have won the MIAC Pool A bid and will be the second seeded Western team in the field.
• Stout, the next highest ranked Western team, will earn the NCHA Pool A bid with a win at St. Norbert on Saturday. Otherwise, they will need a Pool C bid to make the field.
• River Falls needs a Pool C to make the field.
• Adrian needs a Pool C to make the field.
• No one else has even a remote chance.
Taken directly from the USCHO.com D-III PairWise Comparison page, we know that:
“The NCAA Division III men’s ice hockey championship manual states that at-large teams shall be selected by winning percentage, opponents winning percentage, opponents opponents’ winning percentage, head-to-head record, record against common opponents, and record against ranked teams, but not necessarily in that order.
“The NCAA championship manual does not specify any weighting for each of the criteria. Therefore, the selection committee may exercise the authority to weigh each of the criteria arbitrarily during any given season’s selection process. The committee has chosen not to reveal publicly how it weights the criteria.â€
It should also be noted that only in-region games against Division III opponents are taken into consideration by the preceding criteria.
And finally, we know that due to the NCAA’s refusal to make the process transparent, as it is in Division I, analysis can prove a dubious and painstaking task. Confusion over the way the committee may interpret the new two-tiered strength-of-schedule criteria increases the difficulty of analysis, but more than one NCAA representative last week iterated that opponents opponents’ winning percentage is supposed to be used to validate opponents winning percentage. Take it for what it’s worth, as we must also, but suffice to say the unnecessary smoke and mirrors won’t stop us from trying to sort this all out.
Stout
If the Blue Devils win the NCHA championship they will be in the field along with St. Norbert and St. Thomas.
That much is easy, but the question as to what happens if Stout loses Saturday is a much more difficult one to tackle. A loss would drop them into the Pool C mix, and as the Blue Devils are currently the highest ranked Western team in that fold, it’s worth taking a look at them first.
The first thing to note is that based on the current East Region rankings, a loss by Middlebury or Norwich would doom the Blue Devils’ hopes. In order to figure it out why, let’s look at how Stout matches up with those two.
Middlebury vs UW-Stout
WIN 0.6667 0 0.6964 1
OWP 0.5383 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5262 1 0.5145 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 5- 4- 0 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 3 1
Norwich vs UW-Stout
WIN 0.7500 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5614 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5197 1 0.5145 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 8- 3- 0 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 4 0
It’s nearly inconceivable Stout would be selected over either, so if one were to lose and pick up one of the three Pool C bids, let’s look at the next two teams Stout would be compared to as of now.
Manhattanville vs UW-Stout
WIN 0.7115 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5457 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5368 1 0.5145 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 7- 5- 3 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 4 0
Hobart vs UW-Stout
WIN 0.7037 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5530 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5298 1 0.5145 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 6- 7- 2 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 4 0
In that case, it is lights out for the Blue Devils and it will be an 8-2 split.
Now, what happens if Norwich and Middlebury both win? Stout clearly loses comparisons with Hobart and Manhattanville, but who would be compared with the Blue Devils for the final Pool C spot? As of now, none other than defending champion Oswego.
Oswego vs UW-Stout
WIN 0.7308 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5443 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5057 0 0.5145 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 6- 2 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 3 1
Once again it is not looking good. There is possibly a way the West committee could help out the Blue Devils if it comes down to this comparison, but we’ll get to that a little later. As it stands now, however, it looks like Stout needs to win at St. Norbert on Saturday to make the field.
River Falls
Seemingly left for dead following an opening round playoff loss to St. Scholastica, some may be surprised to see them here.
We aren’t.
If Stout does lose at St. Norbert Saturday is there a chance the Falcons could slide into the third spot in the region and become the first Western team considered for Pool C?
We think there is, but we’ll let the numbers do the talking. River Falls is in the exact same boat as Stout in terms of comparisons against Middlebury, Norwich, Manhattanville and Hobart.
Middlebury vs UW-River Falls
WIN 0.6667 0 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5383 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5262 1 0.5154 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 5- 4- 0 1 4- 4- 1 0
============================================
PTS 3 0
Norwich vs UW-River Falls
WIN 0.7500 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5614 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5197 1 0.5154 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 8- 3- 0 1 4- 4- 1 0
============================================
PTS 4 0
Manhattanville vs UW-River Falls
WIN 0.7115 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5457 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5368 1 0.5154 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 7- 5- 3 1 4- 4- 1 0
============================================
PTS 4 0
Hobart vs UW-River Falls
WIN 0.7037 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5530 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5298 1 0.5154 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 6- 7- 2 0 4- 4- 1 1
============================================
PTS 3 1
This is where the similarity with Stout ends, however. What if it came down to a River Falls comparison with Oswego?
Oswego vs UW-River Falls
WIN 0.7308 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5443 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5057 0 0.5154 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 6- 2 0 4- 4- 1 1
============================================
PTS 2 2
For this to come into play, River Falls would need Stout to lose, Middlebury and Norwich to win, and then would have to leapfrog Stout in the West region poll. It sounded outrageous to us at first, too. Then we realized the Falcons already jumped up one spot without playing. What’s another?
Were it to occur, it looks like the Falcons would at least stand a fighting chance, particularly due to their record against ranked opponents. It doesn’t blow Oswego’s out of the water, but as the committee seemed to weigh that criterion heavily last season it looks like the Falcons may still be in the picture, however barely.
Adrian
One of the most interesting storylines of the season has been the rise of first year program Adrian in the MCHA. The case of the Bulldogs illustrates exceedingly well how difficult this process can be to get a grasp on.
Since that league doesn’t have an automatic qualifier, the Bulldogs are forced to compete with teams from the ECAC West to secure a bid at Pool B, despite winning their conference tournament. A quick glance at the USCHO PairWise Comparisons (PWC), which approximates the numbers the committee will be looking at Sunday, gives a clear edge to Elmira for that bid.
Adrian vs Elmira
WIN 0.9545 1 0.8269 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5516 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5322 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 0- 0- 0 0 10- 2- 4 1
============================================
PTS 1 3
This sends Adrian searching for a Pool C bid. However, we see a series of very curious developments when looking at how the Western committee has ranked Adrian thus far.
Every year there is some controversy when it comes time to select the tournament field. In 2005, Trinity’s lack of a home rink sent them to a lower-seeded Geneseo team. In 2006 New England College lost their conference title game and was sent home in favor of a third team from the ECAC West.
In 2007, UMass-Dartmouth (UMD) jumped from fourth to first in the East Region rankings and then didn’t submit a bid to host a game, sending them to play at a lower-ranked Middlebury team. And that’s just recently.
Why rehash these old grievances? It’s to underscore the point that when you have a subjective process, there are bound to be decisions that go against the conventional wisdom of observers of that system. The merits of why Adrian should or shouldn’t be included in the tournament can be discussed ad infinitum. Take this typical exchange:
Adrian fan: They have 26 wins. 20 in a row. Only 3 losses.
Adrian nonfan: But they’re only 3-2 outside of the MCHA, which is not a very strong conference.
Adrian fan: You can’t fault them for the schedule they were forced to play. Besides all those losses came in the beginning of the season and they’re a first year program with a ton of freshmen.
Adrian nonfan: Well you have to look at the whole of the numbers. And there’s a lot of teams with just slightly more losses and a much more difficult schedule.
Adrian fan: Yes, but they only have three losses.
You can see how this could go on forever.
So the purpose of this section of the article is to explain what is happening to Adrian, why it is happening, why it means that the process needs to be fixed, and why the Western committee is getting skunked by the Eastern committee and probably has been for quite some time.
Let’s start by going back in time to February 19. The first public NCAA rankings were released and the west looked like this:
1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-River Falls
4. Adrian
5. UW-Stout
6. UW-Stevens Point
7. Bethel
A straight comparison of the statistics, however, shows Adrian trailing nearly every team in most comparisons except winning percentage. Remember Adrian’s schedule: 20 MCHA games, one exhibition, five games against Eastern opponents. For the sake of these Western rankings, those five games out east and one exhibition don’t count at all.
In interconference play against the MIAC and NCHA this season, the MCHA had an overall record of 5-25-4 (.205 winning percentage). This results in several things happening.
First, Adrian’s SOS is among the weakest in the nation. Because the league average in any closed set of games (such as the MCHA conference schedule) has to be .500, if MCHA teams only played MCHA teams, Adrian’s opponent’s winning percentage (the primary determination of strength of schedule by the NCAA) would be slightly below .500 (because Adrian’s high win total would decrease the number from the .500 average, as they are not their own opponent).
Then add in the fact that in the games Adrian’s opponents did play outside the conference in the region they had a .205 winning percentage, and Adrian’s opponent’s winning percentage decreases dramatically.
Because so many of Adrian’s opponents’ opponents are also MCHA teams, the second component of strength of schedule is also weak for the Bulldogs. The conclusion being that the high win total came against a weak schedule.
Is it fair to punish Adrian for how poorly the rest of their league did in non-conference games? That’s another discussion. The fact of the matter is, the NCAA does punish them for that because they played no in-region non-conference games themselves.
Secondly, Adrian can gain very little ground in Common Opponents. Only five NCHA and MIAC teams have a loss to an MCHA team (a team they would have in common with Adrian). Only two teams have a tie. As a result, most of the teams Adrian compares with for rankings in common opponents have the same number of losses as do the Bulldogs. That means that Adrian can’t really gain any ground on their opponents through the common opponent’s statistic.
And then there is the fact that Adrian has not played a ranked team. Because Adrian didn’t play a non-conference game against a Western opponent, the only way they would have any games against ranked teams is if an MCHA team was ranked. More on that later.
Finally, Adrian has no head-to-head comparisons with ranked teams. See above.
So we’ve established that Adrian leads teams in winning percentage but trails heavily in strength of schedule. They can not gain ground on common opponents, and have no record either head-to-head or against ranked teams. This is actually a pretty damning assessment of Adrian’s statistical situation. So, given all these detractors, what explains the Bulldogs’ fourth place ranking that initial week?
A snapshot of those teams showed that all teams ranked above Adrian had a winning percentage against ranked teams of .500 or better. The teams ranked below Adrian had a winning percentage below .500 against ranked teams. Was the committee giving Adrian some credit for their very high winning percentage, saying their 0-0 record against ranked teams counted as .500, and the rest was a wash because nobody had a comparison on them? Well, let’s see what happened the next week:
NCAA Western Regional Rankings 2/26/08
1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-Stout
4. Adrian
5. UW-River Falls
6. Hamline
7. Bethel
What happened to River Falls is clear. They dropped two games in the NCHA playoffs and fell behind Adrian. But what changed that allowed Stout to jump from fifth to third? Both Stout and Adrian won two games on the weekend. Stout defeated Stevens Point twice, but Stevens Point wasn’t a ranked team at that point.
Adrian also won two games — against Concordia (WI) in the MCHA playoffs. Obviously Stout’s SOS increased while Adrian’s decreased, possibly significantly (two games against Concordia added a combined 4-50, or .074 to Adrian’s strength of schedule rank).
But if everything else was equal that means that we can determine that the difference in ranking between Adrian and Stout in the first week was so incredibly small that the difference in the SOS added by Stevens Point to Stout’s strength of schedule (28-18-8) compared to the 4-50-0* added to Adrian’s strength of schedule was enough to tip the comparison in their favor.
Remember: Adrian has no common opponents, head-to-head, or record against ranked teams — and Stout did not play a team that was ranked. The only things that changed were the teams’ winning percentages (both teams won two games) and their strengths of schedules.
*An aside: Conferences will have to adapt to this new strength of schedule system if it remains in place for future seasons. The Bulldogs were hurt in the criteria by playing an eighth seeded team that, by their record, really didn’t belong in postseason play. Conferences should be looking to get down to six or fewer playoff teams. Six team tournaments still benefit top seeds by giving them a pass through the first round, but when they do play it is against a higher caliber of opponent — specifically one with a record that helps a team’s schedule strength.
Adrian has been constrained the entire year by their conference — first by the 20 game league schedule, then by the playoff system. With the MCHA getting the automatic qualifier next season, this may be a moot point — or not, as Adrian will still have to be considered for seeding purposes. The MCHA should carefully examine its league schedule and playoff system this off-season to prevent this type of scenario happening to their team again.
Back to the rankings. We’re left with one of two theories as to why Stout leapfrogged Adrian. One is that the difference in the first week really was that close. But that would seem to indicate there is some formula, or method of thinking, where one level of winning percentage exceeds another one based on a certain level of schedule strength. And that Adrian and Stout were almost exactly at that level.
The other is that the Western committee was unable to bring themselves to put Adrian as the highest possible contender for Pool C, and wanted to make sure a NCHA team stood between the Bulldogs and an NCAA birth.
Occam’s Razor can be simplified to state “All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best.” Which is more likely: that a very subjective secretive process actually has a very specific mathematical formula and these two teams were right on the cusp of it or that the Western committee wanted a NCHA team to have first crack at an at-large bid?
Maybe this one move can be explained away as coincidence. Both teams were headed to their semifinals and the NCHA is a stronger conference than the MCHA (the head-to-head numbers bear that out). But then why wasn’t Stout ranked ahead of Adrian to begin with? And what changed during that week to change what had Adrian ranked ahead. As you’ll see below, we can explain most of everything else that happened in the NCAA rankings, but Stout jumping Adrian this week is the one X-factor we seem to have no explanation for.
NCAA Western Regional Rankings 3/4/08
1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-Stout
4. UW-River Falls
5. Adrian
6. Hamline
7. Wis.-Superior
This week, Adrian dropped behind an idle River Falls team — after winning its league championship. And unlike the previous week, they played quality opponents in MSOE (15-13) and Finlandia (a winning percentage above .600). So what changed? Superior became a ranked team, giving River Falls an additional 2-0 in record against ranked teams. That moved them above .500 and what seems to be the magic number to get above Adrian.
The question becomes: is there precedent to consider a 0-0 record against ranked teams as a .500 record? It seems like, in a subjective process, that statistic would just reinforce the notion that Adrian is playing a weaker schedule than everybody else. As a result, even if they “won†the comparison against a team with a record against ranked teams below .500, it would reinforce the notion of their ‘inflated’ record, and end up benefiting the team compared against Adrian.
When it comes to Pool C, that could prove the difference between getting an extra Western team into the tournament or not. In that regard, it seems like what the Western committee has done with regard to Adrian makes the least amount of sense. 0-0 is not .500. So, one of two things would make more sense.
Place Adrian at the top of the regional rankings, perhaps even above St. Norbert. The Eastern committee did this last season when they mysteriously moved UMass-Dartmouth (UMD) from fourth to first on a week where teams above them won games. The Corsairs had the same schedule strength concerns the Bulldogs do, playing in the ECAC Northeast.
The Eastern committee slid UMD up the rankings — protecting them in case they faltered — knowing how well they matched up against Western teams. If the West had done this with Adrian — and given them a little help (see below) — they could have claimed the lack of ranked teams didn’t matter because they had won so many games, and hoped that a close comparison with Manhattanville got them into the tournament.
Or, conversely, don’t rank Adrian at all. If their schedule strength really is that weak (and the committee seems to feel it’s worth ranking them below three different NCHA teams), then Adrian wouldn’t get an at-large bid anyway and shouldn’t be considered. The fact they have no games outside of the MCHA in the West means that no other team will benefit or drop from having them ranked, so why not include a team that does have games against ranked opponents and actually helps someone else out?
It appears as if the committee is hesitant to remove the Bulldogs from the equation completely. This could be due to the tradition of having the MCHA champion at least ranked (MSOE was frequently in the bottom half of the Western rankings), with one or two MIAC teams and the rest of the rankings filled out from the NCHA.
But if the committee doesn’t feel the Bulldogs are one of the elite teams in the region because of their record, then the numbers don’t really play out having them in the rankings at all. It would appear the committee is merely paying lip service to the Bulldogs with no intention of giving them a chance to compare for Pool C, even though they may have a better chance of getting in than some of the teams that have mysteriously moved ahead of them.
The one caveat to this discussion is that we are going by the final published rankings. The committee will make one final, non-public ranking Sunday afternoon, which will not be released. Last year, the Western committee moved UW-Superior, the host school for the final four, ahead of UW-Stout, which had better criteria, on the final rankings.
As a result, Stout was never seriously considered for a Pool C spot, as the national committee assumed the Western committee knew what they were doing and had an actual reason for ranking Superior above Stout. That reason appeared to be that “If Elmira got in when they were hosting, Superior would get in when they were hosting.â€
For the second straight year, the Eastern committee outmaneuvered the Western committee, keeping the traditional 7-3 split.
And they look to be doing it again. A glance at the final published East Region NCAA Poll show some curious developments. Oswego, a team that matches up more poorly against Western teams than other schools has dropped down the rankings. Utica is the final ranked team, which bolsters the resumes of teams like Elmira and Manhattanville, who must defeat Adrian in a straight up comparison for Pool B.
Last year a high record against ranked teams, mostly those in positions 10-15 in the Eastern rankings, got Norwich into the tournament over what many believed to be a more deserving Neumann squad. It seems as if the Eastern committee is three steps ahead of the Western committee, and the West needs to wise up and pick a way to try and maximize the teams they get into the tournament. One region already is.
What to do?
Well, it depends. It’s clear that if Stout loses to St. Norbert, the West Region committee is going to be forced to pick one pony and ride it. The big question is: who should it be?
It’s pretty clear it will have to be Stout, River Falls or Adrian.
What if it is Stout?
The committee must remove Superior from the rankings as the Blue Devils are 0-2 against the Yellowjackets this season. So what if they elected to do that and instead moved Stevens Point back into the poll? Leaving Superior in would be inexplicable as Stout is 3-0-1 against the Pointers this season and all of a sudden the Oswego comparison would look like:
Oswego vs UW-Stout
WIN 0.7308 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5443 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5057 0 0.5145 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 6- 2 0 4- 4- 3 1
============================================
PTS 2 2
Rather interesting. Call the SOS comparisons a wash and which wins out: Oswego’s slight advantage in winning percentage or Stout’s minimal advantage in record against ranked opponents? That argument could last all night.
What if it’s River Falls?
Unfortunately there isn’t anything that works out as well for River Falls. They are 1-0-1 against Superior and 1-0 against Hamline. They have beaten Bethel on the year but moving the Royals back in would serve no purpose as it is Superior or Hamline who would drop out and nothing would really change. River Falls is locked into its numbers for the most part.
Oswego vs UW-River Falls
WIN 0.7308 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5443 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5057 0 0.5154 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 6- 2 0 4- 4- 1 1
============================================
PTS 2 2
Compare that with the Stout example outlined above and it’s anyone’s guess as to who matches up better with Oswego. In either case we find it hard to believe the West committee would go down without an extensive, and perhaps prolonged, fight.
What if it’s Adrian?
Ah yes, the most interesting possibility of all if for nothing more than it allows us to have the most fun with the numbers.
As has been mentioned in past columns, as well as above, the only selection criterion the Bulldogs are able to beat anyone against is winning percentage. Simply speaking, this puts the Bulldogs at a 2-1 or 3-1 disadvantage against everyone else in the tournament mix. Not having played any ranked teams is a problem. So let’s fix that.
Congratulations Finlandia, you are now the seventh ranked team in the West Region.
Were this to occur, what happens to Adrian’s comparisons considering the Bulldogs were 3-0 against the Lions this season?
Adrian vs Hobart
WIN 0.9545 1 0.7037 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5530 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5298 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 6- 7- 2 0
============================================
PTS 2 2
Adrian vs Middlebury
WIN 0.9545 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5383 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5262 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 5- 4- 0 0
============================================
PTS 2 2
Adrian vs Norwich
WIN 0.9545 1 0.7500 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5614 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5197 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 8- 3- 0 0
============================================
PTS 2 2
Adrian vs Oswego
WIN 0.9545 1 0.7308 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5443 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5057 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 3- 6- 2 0
============================================
PTS 2 2
Well that certainly is interesting. By now I’m sure someone has noticed we didn’t include Manhattanville. For good reason, as Adrian’s comparison with the Valiants needed to be singled out, so here it is:
Adrian vs Manhattanville
WIN 0.9545 1 0.7115 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5457 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5368 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 7- 5- 3 0
============================================
PTS 2 2
The first thing to note is that merely by ranking Finlandia all of a sudden the Bulldogs beat every Eastern team in winning percentage and record against ranked teams. The only thing the Easterners can lay claim to is a stronger schedule. If the West went to bat for Adrian would that really outweigh Adrian’s advantage in the other two? Who knows.
Now, back to Manhattanville. It looks just like Adrian’s comparison with everyone else, but as Adrian played Neumann and Potsdam this season, that means they have common opponents with Manhattanville. The secondary criteria allow these to be considered in this case, so what if we factored those in?
Adrian vs Manhattanville
WIN 0.9545 1 0.7115 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5457 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5368 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 2- 2- 0 1 1- 3- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 7- 5- 3 0
============================================
PTS 3 2
Now not only does Adrian beat an Eastern team that appears locked into a Pool C bid in winning percentage and record against ranked teams, but they also hold an advantage in common opponents.
Quite a ruckus it would cause, but in a pure numbers-sense, is it possible Adrian is the West Region’s best bet to land a Pool C bid? Well, when everything is weighed evenly it sure looks like they may be.
Now whether it’s Stout, River Falls or Adrian that ends up being the West’s lone gunman come conference call time, any of these actions should be ones the committee is willing to take.
Whether it was moving UMass-Dartmouth mysteriously to number one last season, perhaps moving Oswego below two teams this week that fare much better against the West, or perhaps including Trinity and Utica in this week’s poll to bolster the résumés of the East’s major players, the East committee has routinely demonstrated a clear understanding of the numbers. In turn, they have used them to the advantage of the entire region.
Especially in light of the Superior-Stout ranking debacle outlined above last season, it’s time the West starts doing the same.
Conclusions
We’ve even managed to change our own minds, repeatedly, and we’ve even convinced ourselves a 6-4 split is a mathematical possibility.
If Stout beats St. Norbert, the West committee must run with Adrian. River Falls gets crushed by Manhattanville and Hobart. The Bulldogs are the only hope. If this scenario transpires and Adrian gets in, it really could be 6-4.
It would only make it 7-3 in this case, but the same applies if St. Norbert wins but Norwich or Middlebury lose. It would be a completely futile act to put Stout or River Falls as the top Western Pool C contender as neither gets a whiff of Middlebury, Norwich, Manhattanville or Hobart.
Unfortunately, we believe the West committee has no intention of doing anything to help Adrian, even if it’s the only logical option.
Therefore, parsed down as best we can:
It will be a 7-3 split if Stout wins. (St. Norbert, Stout, St. Thomas)
It’s too close to call if Stout loses and Middlebury and Norwich both win. It’s 7-3 or 8-2 depending on who the West ponies up against potentially Oswego. The 8-2 scenario would then be most likely, but the West could still squeak three teams in with shrewd positioning of ranked teams — which we doubt they are capable of doing.
Anything else and it is 8-2.
Will the West committee once again reap what they have sewn? We’ll find out Sunday.
