As Selection Sunday approaches, it’s time for version 2.0 of Division III Bracketology. We’ll do one again on Sunday prior to the NCAA announcement, and then a “what the heck happened) postmortem.
Again this week, the NCAA has produced rankings based on the process it will use to select the Division III field. Using those rankings, let’s look at each eligible team’s chances of making the tournament.
To recap: eleven teams will get their tickets punched: 7 Pool A teams, 1 Pool B Team, and 3 Pool C teams. Pool A consists of the seven teams that will win playoff championships in leagues with an automatic qualifier: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, NCHA, NESCAC, MCHA, MIAC, and SUNYAC. One Pool B slot is reserved for an independent team or team from a conference that does not have an AQ: ECAC West and MASCAC. Pool C bids will be handed out to the highest remaining teams according to the NCAA rankings.
The rub here is that there are East and West rankings, but not a combined one. So when the rubber hits the road, the committee will be combining the separate rankings on Selection Sunday.
Here’s my guess as to where the teams still in the running stand:
A lock : Oswego, Norwich, St. Norbert . These teams all won again last weekend and can also grab their conference’s autobids if they win out this weekend.
Bet On It: Plattsburgh, Middlebury. These teams fare well in most head-to-head matchups with other contenders. The only way they don’t get in is massive upsets in the conference chanpionships.
Good Chance: Elmira, Gustavus Adolphus: Elmira is in the lead for the Pool B slot right now, but that could change – Manhattanville could jump over Elmira based on the results of the ECAC West championship. Even though it lost the MIAC title game, I still can’t see Gustavus falling behind St. Scholastica in the rankings. But it all comes down to how the committee weighs the criteria, and if UW-River Falls wins the NCHA. That would knock out the Gusties, unless there’s a 6-5 split.
On the Bubble: St. Scholastica , Bowdoin, Manhattanville: Gustavus’ loss really hurts St. Scholastica. Bowdoin needs to either win the NESCAC or have Middlebury win it. Manhattanville has to beat Elmira in the ECAC West title game.
Probably Not: Amherst, Williams, Hamline: Just too many teams ahead of them.
Must Win Their AQ: Trinity, UW-River Falls, Babson, New England, Skidmore, Lawrence, Lake Forest, Curry, Johnson & Wales.
Playing Out the String: These teams are from conferences that don’t have an AQ, so even if they win their league championship, it won’t raise them high enough in the criteria to get an at-large bid. At this point, there’s just the two teams contending for the MASCAC title: Salem State and Fitchburg State.
Thank you Seniors: These teams have concluded their seasons: Utica, Lebabon Valley (forever?), Bethel, Concordia (MN), St. John’s, St. Mary’s, Finlandia, Concordia (WI), UW-Stout, UW-Eau Claire, UW-Superior, Conn College, Wesleyan, Geneseo, Potsdam, Cortland, Buffalo State, Castleton, S. Maine, Mass-Boston U of New England, Neumann (so a new champion this season), Hobart, Wentworth (big upset loss to Johnson & Wales), Suffolk, Becker, Nichols, W. New England, Salve Regina, Westfield State, Worcester State, Framingham State, Gustavus Adolphus, Augsburg, Bethel, St. Olaf, MSOE, Northland, UW-Stevens Point, Morrisville, Fredonia, Brockport.
OK, so let’s take a shot at a possible bracket, assuming the higher seeded team wins its respective league:
ECAC East: Norwich
ECAC Northeast: Curry
MCHA: Adrian
MIAC: St. Thomas (already a winner)
NCHA: St. Norbert
NESCAC: Bowdoin
SUNYAC: Oswego
Going into the ECAC West semifinals, Elmira gets pool B. Who gets the three Pool C bids? Right now I think it’s Plattsburgh, Middlebury, and Gustavus Adolphus, which would mean a 7-4 East-West split. Upsets in the East will make it 8-3. River Falls winning the NCHA will doom Gustavus Adolphus.
Assuming 7-4: would give us:
E1: Norwich
E2: Oswego
E3: Middlebury
E4: Plattsburgh
E5: Bowdoin
E6: Elmira
E7: Curry
W1: St. Norbert
W2: Gustavus Adolphus
W3: Adrian
W4: St. Thomas
First Round:
Curry at Oswego
Elmira at Middlebury
Bowdoin at Plattsburgh
Semifinals:
Bowdoin/Plattsburgh at Norwich
Elmira/Middlebury at Oswego
St. Thomas at St. Norbert
Adrian at Gustavus Adolphus
Assuming 8-3 with an upset in the East:
E1: Norwich
E2: Oswego
E3: Middlebury
E4: Plattsburgh
E5: Bowdoin
E6: Elmira
E7: Curry (or Trinity/Amherst/Williams/Hamilton)
E8: Babson/New England/Skidmore/Johnson & Wales
W1: St. Norbert
W2: Adrian
W3: St. Thomas
First Round:
St. Thomas at Adrian
E8 at Bowdoin
E7 at Elmira
Quarterfinals:
St. Thomas/Adrian at St. Norbert
Bowdoin/E8 at Oswego
Elmira/E7 at Norwich
Plattsburgh at Middlebury
And for fun, let’s say River Falls wins the NCHA and Gustavus gets a Pool C. That would give us a potential 6-5 split:
E1: Norwich
E2: Oswego
E3: Middlebury
E4: Plattsburgh
E5: Elmira
E6: Curry
W1: St. Norbert
W2: Gustavus Adolphus
W3: Adrian
W4: UW-River Falls
W5: St. Thomas
First Round:
St. Thomas at UW-River Falls
Curry at Middlebury
Elmira at Plattsburgh
Quarterfinals:
St. Thomas/River Falls at St. Norbert
Adrian at Gustavus Adolphus
Middlebury/Curry at Oswego
Plattsburgh/Elmira at Norwich
Tune back in Sunday afternoon for the final pre-selection version of Bracketology.
