It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.
It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is the next installment of our Bracketology for the 2010-11 season, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 20. Make sure to check out our other entries on the Bracketology Blog, where we’ll keep you entertained, guessing and educated throughout the rest of the season.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Manchester, N.H.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Louis)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are three host institutions this year, Yale in Bridgeport, New Hampshire in Manchester and Michigan Tech in Green Bay. St. Louis’ host is the CCHA, not a specific team.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Feb. 7, 2011):
1 Yale
2 Boston College
3t Minnesota-Duluth
3t New Hampshire
5t North Dakota
5t Denver
7t Rensselaer
7t Wisconsin
9t Union
9t Merrimack
11t Notre Dame
11t Michigan
13 Western Michigan
14 Nebraska-Omaha
15t Dartmouth
15t Miami
15t Boston University
— Rochester Institute of Technology
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: RIT
CCHA: Notre Dame/Michigan (even though Miami leads in points, winning percentage favors Notre Dame/Michigan)
ECAC: Yale
Hockey East: New Hampshire
WCHA: Denver/Minnesota-Duluth
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the Top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI. The biggest tiebreaker occurs for the last at-large spot, and that is won by Dartmouth, which has the best RPI.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Yale
2 Boston College
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 New Hampshire
5 North Dakota
6 Denver
7 Rensselaer
8 Wisconsin
9 Union
10 Merrimack
11 Notre Dame
12 Michigan
13 Western Michigan
14 Nebraska-Omaha
15 Dartmouth
16 RIT
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Yale, Boston College, Minnesota-Duluth, New Hampshire
No. 2 seeds — North Dakota, Denver, Rensselaer, Wisconsin
No. 3 seeds — Union, Merrimack, Notre Dame, Michigan
No. 4 seeds — Western Michigan, Nebraska-Omaha, Dartmouth, RIT
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there are two host teams in this grouping, Yale and New Hampshire, so Yale must be placed in its home regional, the East Regional in Bridgeport and New Hampshire must be placed in Manchester.
We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 1 Yale is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 4 New Hampshire is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 2 Boston College is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Wisconsin is placed in No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 7 Rensselaer is placed in No. 2 Boston College’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 5 North Dakota is placed in No. 4 New Hampshire’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Therefore:
No. 9 Union is placed in No. 8 Wisconsin’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 10 Merrimack is placed in No. 7 Rensselaer’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Notre Dame is placed in No. 6 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 12 Michigan is placed in No. 5 North Dakota’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 15 Dartmouth is sent to No. 2 Boston College’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Nebraska-Omaha is sent to No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 13 Western Michigan is sent to No. 4 New Hampshire’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Denver
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
15 Dartmouth vs. 2 Boston College
10 Merrimack vs. 7 Rensselaer
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Union vs. 8 Wisconsin
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 New Hampshire
12 Michigan vs. 5 North Dakota
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have one.
Nebraska-Omaha vs. Minnesota-Duluth. So we have to switch Nebraska-Omaha with Dartmouth or Western Michigan. We switch the Mavericks and the Big Green.
West Regional (St. Louis):
15 Dartmouth vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Denver
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
14 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 2 Boston College
10 Merrimack vs. 7 Rensselaer
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Union vs. 8 Wisconsin
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 New Hampshire
12 Michigan vs. 5 North Dakota
What else can we do for bracket integrity or attendance? Is there anything we can do?
There are a few things that we can do, that’s for sure.
I’m not happy with a few brackets. We have Manchester, which has three Western teams. We have Green Bay with three Eastern teams. We have Wisconsin not playing in Wisconsin. We have Nebraska-Omaha not playing close to St. Louis.
It’s time to switch some things around. Let’s make some moves.
First move is to switch the Merrimack-Rensselaer matchup and the Michigan-North Dakota matchup.
West Regional (St. Louis):
15 Dartmouth vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Denver
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
14 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 2 Boston College
12 Michigan vs. 5 North Dakota
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Union vs. 8 Wisconsin
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 New Hampshire
10 Merrimack vs. 7 Rensselaer
That looks a little better to me.
I can make a switch which brings Nebraska-Omaha to St. Louis and Minnesota-Duluth to Green Bay.
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 2 Boston College
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Denver
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
15 Dartmouth vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Michigan vs. 5 North Dakota
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Union vs. 8 Wisconsin
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 New Hampshire
10 Merrimack vs. 7 Rensselaer
We have kept all the matchups in their proper bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, etc.), but now we look at attendance issues to see if we can improve it by moving teams within the bands to make a better championship atmosphere for the student-athletes and fans.
I’d like to get Wisconsin to Green Bay. I swap Wisconsin with North Dakota.
At the same time though, would it make sense to send North Dakota to St. Louis, and bring Denver to Manchester? I think I can win that argument.
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 2 Boston College
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 North Dakota
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
15 Dartmouth vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Michigan vs. 8 Wisconsin
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Union vs. 5 Denver
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 New Hampshire
10 Merrimack vs. 7 Rensselaer
Is there anything else?
One more. I did it before, and I’ll do it again. I want to bring Dartmouth, a New Hampshire school, to New Hampshire.
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 2 Boston College
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 North Dakota
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Michigan vs. 8 Wisconsin
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Union vs. 5 Denver
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Dartmouth vs. 4 New Hampshire
10 Merrimack vs. 7 Rensselaer
I like it.
So that is it. My bracket for the week.
Let’s look at one more thing. What if Miami, which leads the CCHA in points, but not winning percentage, is the assumed champion?
You substitute Miami for Dartmouth and do everything the same except the last step.
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 2 Boston College
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 North Dakota
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
15 Miami vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Michigan vs. 8 Wisconsin
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Union vs. 5 Denver
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 New Hampshire
10 Merrimack vs. 7 Rensselaer
More thoughts and education and plain wit on the blog. We’ll see you here next week for the next Bracketology.
