We’re at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone’s minds.
Will my team make the NCAA tournament?
Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.
The criteria are tweaked every so often, often being every year lately, in order to give what the committee believes will be the best tournament.
This year the change that was made was to change the criteria relating to the record against common opponents.
Before this year it was calculated as a winning percentage and then compared — a basic question of who has a better winning record against common opponents.
This year, each winning percentage against each common opponent is added together and the highest number wins.
For more on this please check out our FAQ.
With that in mind, it’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.
It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is the first installment of our Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Paul, Minn.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Manchester, Michigan Tech in Green Bay and Minnesota in St. Paul.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands”.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Jan. 25, 2011):
1 Boston University
2 Minnesota-Duluth
3 Ohio State
4 Notre Dame
5 Michigan
6t Merrimack
6t Northern Michigan
6t Ferris State
9t Boston College
9t Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Cornell
12 Denver
13 Minnesota
14t Michigan State
14t Miami
16 Colorado College
— Mercyhurst
Here are the current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: Mercyhurst
CCHA: Ohio State
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston University
WCHA: Minnesota-Duluth
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at how the teams rank in the Ratings Percentage Index, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is Mercyhurst.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Merrimack, Northern Michigan and Ferris State at 6, Boston College and Massachusetts-Lowell at 9 and Michigan State and Miami at 14.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Boston University
2 Minnesota-Duluth
3 Ohio State
4 Notre Dame
5 Michigan
6 Merrimack
7 Northern Michigan
8 Ferris State
9 Boston College
10 Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Cornell
12 Denver
13 Minnesota
14 Michigan State
15 Miami
16 Mercyhurst
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Boston University, Minnesota-Duluth, Ohio State, Notre Dame
No. 2 seeds — Michigan, Merrimack, Northern Michigan, Ferris State
No. 3 seeds — Boston College, Massachusetts-Lowell, Cornell, Denver
No. 4 seeds — Minnesota, Michigan State, Miami, Mercyhurst
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 3 Ohio State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 4 Notre Dame is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Ferris State is placed in No. 1 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 7 Northern Michigan is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 6 Merrimack is placed in No. 3 Ohio State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Michigan is placed in No. 4 Notre Dame’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Boston College is placed in No. 8 Ferris State’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 7 Northern Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 11 Cornell is placed in No. 6 Merrimack’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Denver is placed in No. 5 Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
But we have to place Minnesota first, as it is a host institution.
No. 13 Minnesota is sent to No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 16 Mercyhurst is sent to No. 1 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Miami is sent to No. 3 Ohio State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Michigan State is sent to No. 4 Notre Dame’s regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
Minnesota vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Northern Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Miami vs. Ohio State
Cornell vs. Merrimack
Northeast Regional:
Mercyhurst vs. Boston University
Boston College vs. Ferris State
East Regional:
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame
Denver vs. Michigan
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have a few, so let’s solve them.
Let’s look at the intra-conference matchups that involve the No. 1 seeds.
We have Minnesota vs. Minnesota-Duluth, Miami vs. Ohio State and Michigan State vs. Notre Dame.
Therefore, we must break all of them.
There are two CCHA teams that are No. 4 seeds and two CCHA teams that are No. 1 seeds. Therefore, they are moved around to avoid playing each other.
So we now have Miami vs. Boston University, Michigan State vs. Minnesota-Duluth, Mercyhurst vs. Ohio State and Minnesota vs. Notre Dame.
Why is this? Because Minnesota is the highest No. 4 seed and Notre Dame is the lowest No. 1 seed. That leaves no choice for Ohio State as to whom it plays, meaning Mercyhurst.
And then we have the case of whom Boston University plays. It will get the CCHA team with the lowest RPI. In this case, that is Miami. That leaves Michigan State to face Minnesota-Duluth.
There will be those that will scream that Boston University gets screwed here, but, this is how the process works. The criteria are laid out plain and simply and the rules will be followed.
So, along with this, because Minnesota has to play in St. Paul, we need to swap Minnesota-Duluth’s site. Notre Dame moves to St. Paul and we would like to keep Boston University in Worcester. That means that Minnesota-Duluth will now move to Green Bay, and in turn, Ohio State moves to Bridgeport.
Our brackets are now:
West Regional:
Minnesota vs. Notre Dame
Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Northern Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Michigan State vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Cornell vs. Merrimack
Northeast Regional:
Miami vs. Boston University
Boston College vs. Ferris State
East Regional:
Mercyhurst vs. Ohio State
Denver vs. Michigan
We now have a bracket that does not have any intra-conference matchups.
Can we make it better?
Attendance is always a concern. We have an East-East matchup in the Midwest Regional that we could easily swap with a West-West matchup in the East Regional.
That means that we move the Cornell-Merrimack matchup to Bridgeport and move the Denver-Michigan matchup to Green Bay.
Makes sense to me.
So what do we have now?
West Regional:
Minnesota vs. Notre Dame
Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Northern Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Michigan State vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Denver vs. Michigan
Northeast Regional:
Miami vs. Boston University
Boston College vs. Ferris State
East Regional:
Mercyhurst vs. Ohio State
Cornell vs. Merrimack
This, by all means looks like a good bracket.
So that is it. My bracket for the week.
See you here next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
St. Paul
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Notre Dame
10 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 7 Northern Michigan
Green Bay
14 Michigan State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Denver vs. 5 Michigan
Bridgeport
16 Mercyhurst vs. 3 Ohio State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Merrimack
Worcester
15 Miami vs. 1 Boston University
9 Boston College vs. 8 Ferris State
Conference breakdowns
CCHA — 7
HEA — 4
WCHA — 3
ECAC — 1
AHA — 1
Attendance woes?
None that I see.
Last week’s brackets (the 2011 NCAA tournament)
St. Louis
14 Colorado College vs. 3 Boston College
12 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 5 Michigan
Green Bay
15 Rensselaer vs. 2 North Dakota
10 Western Michigan vs. 7 Denver
Bridgeport
16 Air Force vs. 1 Yale
9 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 8 Union
Manchester
13 New Hampshire vs. 4 Miami
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Merrimack
Interesting …
• So let’s see, we have both BC and BU in Worcester and Miami here as well? If you take a look at the NCAA tournament, one would think Miami is the annual host school for the Northeast Regional …
• Along the same lines we have Michigan and Michigan State in Green Bay.
