Welcome to the next installment of our Bracketology, and we’ll keep bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Paul, Minn.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Michigan Tech in Green Bay and Minnesota in St. Paul.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands”.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Feb. 21, 2012):
1 Boston College
2t Michigan
2t Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Ferris State
5 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Boston University
7 Union
8t Minnesota
8t Maine
10 Michigan State
11t Miami
11t Denver
13 Ohio State
14 North Dakota
15 Cornell
16 Merrimack
28 Air Force
Here are the current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: Air Force
CCHA: Ferris State
ECAC Hockey: Union
Hockey East: Boston College
WCHA: Minnesota
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at how the teams rank in the Ratings Percentage Index, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is Air Force.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Michigan and Massachusetts-Lowell at 2, Minnesota and Maine at 8, and Miami and Denver at 11.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, and adding in any conference leaders not already in the Top 16, are:
1 Boston College
2 Michigan
3 Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Ferris State
5 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Boston University
7 Union
8 Minnesota
9 Maine
10 Michigan State
11 Miami
12 Denver
13 Ohio State
14 North Dakota
15 Cornell
16 Air Force
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Boston College, Michigan, Massachusetts-Lowell, Ferris State
No. 2 seeds — Minnesota-Duluth, Boston University, Union, Minnesota
No. 3 seeds — Maine, Michigan State, Miami, Denver
No. 4 seeds — Ohio State, North Dakota, Cornell, Air Force
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 Michigan is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 4 Ferris State is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
We have to place Minnesota first as a host institution.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Minnesota is placed in No. 4 Ferris State’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Union is placed in No. 1 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 6 Boston University is placed in No. 2 Michigan’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Maine is placed in No. 8 Minnesota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Michigan State is placed in No. 7 Union’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 11 Miami is placed in No. 6 Boston University’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Denver is placed in No. 5 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Air Force is sent to No. 1 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Cornell is sent to No. 2 Michigan’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 North Dakota is sent to No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 13 Ohio State is sent to No. 4 Ferris State’s regional, the West Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
Ohio State vs. Ferris State
Maine vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Cornell vs. Michigan
Miami vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
Air Force vs. Boston College
Michigan State vs. Union
East Regional:
North Dakota vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Denver vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have Ohio State vs. Ferris State in the 1-4 seeding band.
Thus we make a quick switch of North Dakota and Ohio State.
So our bracket is now:
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Maine vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Cornell vs. Michigan
Miami vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
Air Force vs. Boston College
Michigan State vs. Union
East Regional:
Ohio State vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Denver vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Now we have to break the other intra-conference matchup in Denver vs. Minnesota-Duluth.
We swap Denver with Miami.
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Maine vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Cornell vs. Michigan
Denver vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
Air Force vs. Boston College
Michigan State vs. Union
East Regional:
Ohio State vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Miami vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Is there anything else that we can do?
Let’s look at some attendance considerations vs. bracket integrity again.
There is a possible swap of locations for two matchups.
We can look at swapping the Denver vs. BU matchup with Miami and UMD. This looks good on paper because Miami and UMD will bring more fans to Green Bay and moving BU to Bridgeport will bring more fans there.
So let’s do that.
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Maine vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Cornell vs. Michigan
Miami vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Northeast Regional:
Air Force vs. Boston College
Michigan State vs. Union
East Regional:
Ohio State vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Denver vs. Boston University
How about swapping Maine with Michigan State? This will draw some attendance over to Worcester and possibly more attendance to St. Paul.
We are breaking up an 8-9 and a 7-10 matchup. These are two perfect matched games in terms of bracket integrity. But we don’t sacrifice much by just making it a 8-10 and 7-9 matchup.
So I am going to do it.
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Michigan State vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Cornell vs. Michigan
Miami vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Northeast Regional:
Air Force vs. Boston College
Maine vs. Union
East Regional:
Ohio State vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Denver vs. Boston University
If I could find a way to bring Cornell to the East or Northeast, I would do that.
Let’s see what a bracket looks like if we do that.
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Michigan State vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Air Force vs. Michigan
Miami vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Northeast Regional:
Cornell vs. Boston College
Maine vs. Union
East Regional:
Ohio State vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Denver vs. Boston University
or
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Michigan State vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Air Force vs. Michigan
Miami vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Northeast Regional:
Ohio State vs. Boston College
Maine vs. Union
East Regional:
Cornell vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Denver vs. Boston University
The second one is actually preferred, because then we can bring more attendance into Bridgeport with three Eastern teams, rather than only two.
But in this case, I can’t do it because it would mean breaking up the 1-16 matchup of BC and Air Force. That I will not do to protect the No. 1 seed.
So for this week, we leave Cornell in its place.
So that is it. My bracket for the week.
See you here next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
St. Paul
14 North Dakota vs. 4 Ferris State
10 Michigan State vs. 8 Minnesota
Green Bay
15 Cornell vs. 2 Michigan
11 Miami vs. 5 Minnesota-Duluth
Bridgeport
13 Ohio State vs. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell
12 Denver vs. 6 Boston University
Worcester
16 Air Force vs. 1 Boston College
9 Maine vs. 7 Union
Conference breakdowns
CCHA — 5
HEA — 4
WCHA — 4
ECAC — 2
AHA — 1
On The Move
In: Cornell, North Dakota
Out: Merrimack, Northern Michigan
Attendance woes?
I am quite comfortable.
Last week’s brackets
St. Paul
14 Minnesota vs. 1 Ferris State
11 Merrimack vs. 5 Michigan
Green Bay
13 Miami vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
9 Northern Michigan vs. 7 Denver
Bridgeport
15 Ohio State vs. 3 Boston University
12 Michigan State vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
Worcester
16 Air Force vs. 2 Boston College
10 Union vs. 8 Maine
