It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.
It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
We’ll keep bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Providence, R.I.; Northeast — Manchester, N.H.; Midwest — Toledo, Ohio; West — Grand Rapids, Mich.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, New Hampshire in Manchester, Bowling Green in Toledo and Michigan in Grand Rapids.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Feb. 12, 2013):
1 Quinnipiac
2 Minnesota
3t Miami
3t Boston College
5 New Hampshire
6t North Dakota
6t Western Michigan
8 St. Cloud State
9 Yale
10 Minnesota State
11 Niagara
12t Denver
12t Notre Dame
12t Dartmouth
12t Alaska
12t Boston University
Here are the current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: Niagara
CCHA: Western Michigan
ECAC Hockey: Quinnipiac
Hockey East: Boston College
WCHA: St. Cloud State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at how the teams rank in the Ratings Percentage Index, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. There are none.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Miami and Boston College at 3, Western Michigan and North Dakota at 6, and the huge logjam at 12.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Quinnipiac
2 Minnesota
3 Miami
4 Boston College
5 New Hampshire
6 North Dakota
7 Western Michigan
8 St. Cloud State
9 Yale
10 Minnesota State
11 Niagara
12 Denver
13 Notre Dame
14 Dartmouth
15 Alaska
16 Boston University
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College
No. 2 seeds — New Hampshire, North Dakota, Western Michigan, St. Cloud State
No. 3 seeds — Yale, Minnesota State, Niagara, Denver
No. 4 seeds — Notre Dame, Dartmouth, Alaska, Boston University
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Quinnipiac is placed in the East Regional in Providence.
No. 2 Minnesota is placed in the West Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 3 Miami is placed in the Midwest Regional in Toledo.
No. 4 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless it is a host school, in which case it must be assigned to its home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
We must assign New Hampshire, a host, first.
No. 5 New Hampshire is placed in No. 4 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 8 St. Cloud State is placed in No. 1 Quinnipiac’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 7 Western Michigan is placed in No. 2 Minnesota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 6 North Dakota is placed in No. 3 Miami’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Yale is placed in No. 8 St. Cloud State’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 10 Minnesota State is placed in No. 7 Western Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 11 Niagara is placed in No. 6 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Denver is placed in No. 5 New Hampshire’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Boston University is sent to No. 1 Quinnipiac’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 15 Alaska is sent to No. 2 Minnesota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 14 Dartmouth is sent to No. 3 Miami’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 13 Notre Dame is sent to No. 4 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (Grand Rapids):
15 Alaska vs. 2 Minnesota
10 Minnesota State vs. 7 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Toledo):
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 Miami
11 Niagara vs. 6 North Dakota
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Notre Dame vs. 4 Boston College
12 Denver vs. 5 New Hampshire
East Regional (Providence):
16 Boston University vs. 1 Quinnipiac
9 Yale vs. 8 St. Cloud State
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have none. Zero, zip, nada, none.
Can we make it better?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: attendance, attendance, attendance.
Where can we get better attendance?
I would like to bring Dartmouth back to New Hampshire and move Notre Dame to Toledo or Grand Rapids. Can we do that?
We can’t put Notre Dame in Toledo because of the CCHA-CCHA matchup it creates. We can put it in Grand Rapids, though.
But we can’t move Alaska to Toledo, either, so Dartmouth looks like the odd team out here and it can’t be moved.
So our new bracket:
West Regional (Grand Rapids):
13 Notre Dame vs. 2 Minnesota
10 Minnesota State vs. 7 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Toledo):
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 Miami
11 Niagara vs. 6 North Dakota
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Alaska vs. 4 Boston College
12 Denver vs. 5 New Hampshire
East Regional (Providence):
16 Boston University vs. 1 Quinnipiac
9 Yale vs. 8 St. Cloud State
I can’t make any other moves than that. I really like the way it has shaped up.
So that is it. My bracket for the week.
See you here next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
Grand Rapids
13 Notre Dame vs. 2 Minnesota
10 Minnesota State vs. 7 Western Michigan
Toledo
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 Miami
11 Niagara vs. 6 North Dakota
Manchester
15 Alaska vs. 4 Boston College
12 Denver vs. 5 New Hampshire
Providence
16 Boston University vs. 1 Quinnipiac
9 Yale vs. 8 St. Cloud State
Conference breakdowns
WCHA — 5
CCHA — 4
ECAC — 3
HEA — 3
AHA — 1
On the move
In: None
Out: None
Attendance woes?
I like it. I’d just like Dartmouth in Manchester for more attendance.
Last week’s brackets
Grand Rapids
14 Alaska vs. 2 Minnesota
11 Denver vs. 6 Western Michigan
Toledo
13 Boston University vs. 3 Miami
10 North Dakota vs. 7 Yale
Manchester
15 Dartmouth vs. 4 Boston College
12 Minnesota State vs. 5 New Hampshire
Providence
16 Notre Dame vs. 1 Quinnipiac
9 Niagara vs. 8 St. Cloud State
