It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament would wind up come selection time using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
We’ll keep bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 22.
Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.
Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.
For the past four years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Providence, R.I.; Northeast — Manchester, N.H.; Midwest — South Bend, Ind.; West — Fargo, N.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, New Hampshire in Manchester, Notre Dame in South Bend and North Dakota in Fargo.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of March 10:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Miami
5 Michigan Tech
6 Boston University
7 Omaha
8 Denver
9 Providence
10 Boston College
11 Bowling Green
12t Quinnipiac
12t Yale
14t Minnesota
14t Massachusetts-Lowell
16 St. Cloud State
26 Robert Morris
32t Michigan State
Current conference leaders or regular season champions based on tiebreakers established by each conference:
Atlantic Hockey: Robert Morris (regular season champion)
Big Ten: Michigan State
ECAC Hockey: Quinnipiac (regular season champion)
Hockey East: Boston University (regular season champion)
NCHC: North Dakota (regular season champion)
WCHA: Minnesota State (regular season champion)
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• For conferences still in regular season play, I will be using the conference tiebreakers to determine the top seed for that conference’s tournament. For conference already in the postseason, I will be using the highest remaining seed. These teams are my assumed conference tournament champions and recipients of the autobids.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Robert Morris and Michigan State.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
There are two ties, Quinnipiac and Yale and Minnesota and Massachusetts-Lowell.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Miami
5 Michigan Tech
6 Boston University
7 Omaha
8 Denver
9 Providence
10 Boston College
11 Bowling Green
12 Quinnipiac
13 Yale
14 Minnesota
15 Robert Morris
16 Michigan State
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: North Dakota, Minnesota State, Minnesota-Duluth, Miami
No. 2 seeds: Michigan Tech, Boston University, Omaha, Denver
No. 3 seeds: Providence, Boston College, Bowling Green, Quinnipiac
No. 4 seeds: Yale, Minnesota, Robert Morris, Michigan State
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
North Dakota, as a host institution, is placed first.
No. 1 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in Fargo.
No. 2 Minnesota State is placed in the Midwest Regional in South Bend.
No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 4 Miami is placed in the East Regional in Providence.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Denver is placed in No. 1 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Omaha is placed in No. 2 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 Boston University is placed in No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 5 Michigan Tech is placed in No. 4 Miami’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9 and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Boston College is placed in No. 7 Omaha’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Bowling Green is placed in No. 6 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 12 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 5 Michigan Tech’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Michigan State is sent to No. 1 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 15 Robert Morris is sent to No. 2 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Minnesota is sent to No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 13 Yale is sent to No. 4 Miami’s regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
East Regional (Providence):
13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
12 Quinnipiac vs. 5 Michigan Tech
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Minnesota vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Bowling Green vs. 6 Boston University
Midwest Regional (South Bend):
15 Robert Morris vs. 2 Minnesota State
10 Boston College vs. 7 Omaha
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Michigan State vs. 1 North Dakota
9 Providence vs. 8 Denver
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none this week.
Then let’s leave everything as it is. Now, you know that can’t happen, right?
Why not?
The PWR has not changed much over the past week except in the fourth band, so our argument remains the same. I think it’s familiar by now.
Let’s look at the East and Northeast regionals.
There are three Western teams in the Northeast Regional and two ECAC Hockey teams in the East Regional. I’m not so concerned about the East as I would be the Northeast.
We have Providence and Boston College sitting in the West and Midwest regionals, respectively, and it would be nice to bring one of them back East to help bolster attendance in the East.
I have gotten many notes stating that the West Regional is sold out and the Midwest Regional has good ticket sales and asking why I am moving teams to these regionals for attendance purposes. I am not doing it for those regionals; I am doing it to boost attendance in the East and Northeast regionals.
The other point is that why would we not want to make a great atmosphere in the sold-out regionals? After all, one of the mandates of the committee is to make the atmosphere a great one for the student-athletes.
Now back to our analysis.
With Boston University sitting in the two band and in the East, you can’t bring back both Providence and Boston College. So we need to decide who to bring back.
I will look at the PWR. Providence is 9, Boston College is 10. So let’s work on bringing the higher seed back East.
Providence, though not the host in the East Regional, is still a nice draw in Providence. So I would like to place the Friars there.
This means that Quinnipiac must move to Manchester, and in turn, Bowling Green must move. But I would like to move the Falcons to South Bend because of the proximity, and then that means Boston College moves to take Providence’s spot.
But if I do that, I create a WCHA-WCHA matchup, so I will also swap Denver and Michigan Tech.
East Regional (Providence):
13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
9 Providence vs. 5 Michigan Tech
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Minnesota vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Quinnipiac vs. 6 Boston University
Midwest Regional (South Bend):
15 Robert Morris vs. 2 Minnesota State
11 Bowling Green vs. 8 Denver
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Michigan State vs. 1 North Dakota
10 Boston College vs. 7 Omaha
And there you have it.
We’ve maximized what we have had in terms of Eastern teams in the East Regional.
See you here next week for the next Bracketology, and you can check out the Bracketology Blog for some musings during the week.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
East Regional (Providence):
13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
9 Providence vs. 5 Michigan Tech
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Minnesota vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Quinnipiac vs. 6 Boston University
Midwest Regional (South Bend):
15 Robert Morris vs. 2 Minnesota State
11 Bowling Green vs. 8 Denver
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Michigan State vs. 1 North Dakota
10 Boston College vs. 7 Omaha
Conference breakdowns
NCHC — 5
Hockey East — 3
WCHA — 3
Big Ten — 2
ECAC Hockey — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move
In: Michigan State
Out: Michigan
Attendance woes?
I think we are OK.
Last week’s brackets
East Regional (Providence):
13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
9 Providence vs. 5 Omaha
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Bowling Green vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Quinnipiac vs. 6 Boston University
Midwest Regional (South Bend):
15 Michigan vs. 2 Minnesota State
10 Boston College vs. 7 Michigan Tech
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Robert Morris vs. 1 North Dakota
11 Minnesota vs. 8 Denver
