We’re at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone’s minds.
Will my team make the NCAA tournament? Where does it sit in the PairWise Rankings (PWR)?
Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.
Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.
Five of the last six years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
With that in mind, it’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
This is the next installment of Bracketology for 2017, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 19.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Providence, R.I.; Northeast – Manchester, N.H.; Midwest – Cincinnati, Ohio; West – Fargo, N.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, New Hampshire in Manchester, Miami in Cincinnati and North Dakota in Fargo.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of February 7:
1 Minnesota-Duluth
2 Denver
3 Boston University
4 Minnesota
5 Harvard
6 Western Michigan
7 Union
8t Providence
8t North Dakota
8t Boston College
11 Penn State
12 Massachusetts-Lowell
13 Cornell
14 Vermont
15 Wisconsin
16 St. Cloud State
17 Air Force
24 Bemidji State
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: Air Force
Big Ten: Minnesota (wins tiebreaker on better record vs Penn State (2-0 vs 0-0))
ECAC Hockey: Union
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: Minnesota-Duluth
WCHA: Bemidji State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Air Force and Bemidji State.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of none this week.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Minnesota-Duluth
2 Denver
3 Boston University
4 Minnesota
5 Harvard
6 Western Michigan
7 Union
8 Providence
9 North Dakota
10 Boston College
11 Penn State
12 Massachusetts-Lowell
13 Cornell
14 Vermont
15 Air Force
16 Bemidji State
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: Minnesota-Duluth, Denver, Boston University, Minnesota
No. 2 seeds: Harvard, Western Michigan, Union, Providence
No. 3 seeds: North Dakota, Boston College, Penn State, Massachusetts-Lowell
No. 4 seeds: Cornell, Vermont, Air Force, Bemidji State
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the West Regional in Fargo
No. 2 Denver is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.
No. 3 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 4 Minnesota is placed in the East Regional in Providence.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Providence is placed in No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Union is placed in No. 2 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 Western Michigan is placed in No. 3 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 5 Harvard is placed in No. 4 Minnesota’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
North Dakota is a host, therefore they are placed first in this pod:
No. 9 North Dakota is placed in No. 8 Providence’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Boston College is placed in No. 7 Union’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Penn State is placed in No. 6 Western Michigan’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 12 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 5 Harvard’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Bemidji State is sent to No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 15 Air Force is sent to No. 2 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Vermont is sent to No. 3 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 13 Cornell is sent to No. 4 Minnesota’s regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
East Regional (Providence):
13 Cornell vs. 4 Minnesota
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Harvard
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Vermont vs. 3 Boston University
11 Penn State vs. 6 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
10 Boston College vs. 7 Union
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 North Dakota vs. 8 Providence
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have one this week – Vermont vs. Boston University.
We can make a quick switch between Vermont and Cornell.
East Regional (Providence):
14 Vermont vs. 4 Minnesota
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Harvard
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Cornell vs. 3 Boston University
11 Penn State vs. 6 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
10 Boston College vs. 7 Union
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 North Dakota vs. 8 Providence
Now let’s look at maximizing attendance.
It looks to me like we can move a bunch of things here. For example, why can’t we just swap the entire matchups in the second and third bands to make things more geographically fit?
i.e. we put Penn State-WMU in Cincinnati. We put Lowell-Harvard in Manchester and we put BC-Union in Providence.
East Regional (Providence):
14 Vermont vs. 4 Minnesota
10 Boston College vs. 7 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Cornell vs. 3 Boston University
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Harvard
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
11 Penn State vs. 6 Western Michigan
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 North Dakota vs. 8 Providence
That looks like it can work. My only wish is that I could put Providence in Providence – remember, Brown is the host there, not Providence. The only way I can do that is to put Penn State there by swapping Penn State and BC, and then swapping Providence with Union.
East Regional (Providence):
14 Vermont vs. 4 Minnesota
11 Penn State vs. 8 Providence
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Cornell vs. 3 Boston University
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Harvard
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
10 Boston College vs. 6 Western Michigan
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 North Dakota vs. 7 Union
That really screws up the bracket integrity though. Do I do it? I would have to think long and hard before I said, “No, I won’t.” But would the committee do that? How can they resist putting Providence in Providence? I am not sure.
Can we approach the bracket another way?
There is always that school of thought that you should not put the number one overall seed in the same regional as a host school. We are of course referring to the fact that UMD is currently in the same regional as North Dakota.
Let’s change it up a bit then and see what happens.
Here’s how we place the number one seeds:
UMD in Cincinnati, Denver in Providence, BU in Manchester and Minnesota in Fargo.
That means our bracket falls out like this:
East Regional (Providence):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
11 Penn State vs. 7 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Vermont vs. 3 Boston University
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 6 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Boston College vs. 8 Providence
West Regional (Fargo):
13 Cornell vs. 4 Minnesota
9 North Dakota vs. 5 Harvard
Now let’s eliminate the intra-conference matchups of Boston College vs. Providence and Vermont vs. Boston University.
Vermont is simple, we swap Vermont with Cornell.
East Regional (Providence):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
11 Penn State vs. 7 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Cornell vs. 3 Boston University
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 6 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Boston College vs. 8 Providence
West Regional (Fargo):
14 Vermont vs. 4 Minnesota
9 North Dakota vs. 5 Harvard
Now let’s take care of Boston College and Providence. Before we do what most people would do, swap Penn State and Boston College, let’s go back to the idea that we want to put Providence in Providence.
Let’s move the teams in the second band instead, meaning let’s move Providence to Providence and then make it geographically sound after that.
East Regional (Providence):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
11 Penn State vs. 8 Providence
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Cornell vs. 3 Boston University
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 7 Union
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Boston College vs. 6 Western Michigan
West Regional (Fargo):
14 Vermont vs. 4 Minnesota
9 North Dakota vs. 5 Harvard
We would love to move Boston College to Providence, but we can’t in this case. So that looks like a bracket to me.
The other thing here that I think the committee will look at is that there is an ECAC team hosting in Providence. But there are zero ECAC teams in that regional at the moment. Will the committee want that?
So I am not sure which bracket is good here and which way the committee would go.
For me, for the sake of having to choose one this week, I will choose the first scenario because it preserves the bracket integrity.
See you here in a few weeks for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
East Regional (Providence):
14 Vermont vs. 4 Minnesota
10 Boston College vs. 7 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Cornell vs. 3 Boston University
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Harvard
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
11 Penn State vs. 6 Western Michigan
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 North Dakota vs. 8 Providence
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
NCHC — 4
ECAC Hockey — 3
Big Ten — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Movement
In: Cornell, Air Force
Out: Wisconsin, Canisius
Last Week’s Bracket
East Regional (Providence):
16 Canisius vs. 2 Denver
11 Providence vs. 6 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Wisconsin vs. 3 Boston University
10 Boston College vs. 8 Harvard
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 4 Western Michigan
12 Vermont vs. 5 Penn State
West Regional (Fargo):
15 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 North Dakota vs. 7 Minnesota
