We’re at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone’s minds.
Will my team make the NCAA tournament? Where does it sit in the PairWise Rankings?
Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.
Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.
Five of the last six years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
With that in mind, it’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
We’ll be bringing you a new look every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 19.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Providence, R.I.; Northeast — Manchester, N.H.; Midwest — Cincinnati; West — Fargo, N.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, New Hampshire in Manchester, Miami in Cincinnati and North Dakota in Fargo.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2017 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings, and the conference leaders or number one seeds in their tournament through all games of March 5:
1 Denver
2 Minnesota Duluth
3 Harvard
4 Western Michigan
5 Minnesota
6 UMass Lowell
7 Boston University
8 Union
9 Penn State
10 Cornell
11t Providence
11t North Dakota
13t Wisconsin
13t Notre Dame
15 Vermont
16 Air Force
26 Canisius
27 Bemidji State
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage or as the No. 1 seed in its respective tournament:
Atlantic Hockey: Canisius
Big Ten: Minnesota
ECAC Hockey: Harvard
Hockey East: UMass Lowell
NCHC: Denver
WCHA: Bemidji State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
• For conferences where the regular season has concluded, I have taken the highest remaining seed in that conference’s tournament as the assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders or top remaining seeds in the conference tournaments that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Bemidji State and Canisius.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Providence/North Dakota and Wisconsin/Notre Dame this week.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Denver
2 Minnesota Duluth
3 Harvard
4 Western Michigan
5 Minnesota
6 UMass Lowell
7 Boston University
8 Union
9 Penn State
10 Cornell
11 Providence
12 North Dakota
13 Wisconsin
14 Notre Dame
15 Canisius
16 Bemidji State
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: Denver, Minnesota Duluth, Harvard, Western Michigan
No. 2 seeds: Minnesota, UMass Lowell, Boston University, Union
No. 3 seeds: Penn State, Cornell, Providence, North Dakota
No. 4 seeds: Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Canisius, Bemidji State
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Denver is placed in the West Regional in Fargo
No. 2 Minnesota Duluth is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.
No. 3 Harvard is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 4 Western Michigan is placed in the East Regional in Providence.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Union is placed in No. 1 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Boston University is placed in No. 2 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 UMass Lowell is placed in No. 3 Harvard’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 5 Minnesota is placed in No. 4 Western Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
As a host school, North Dakota is placed first.
No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 8 Union’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 9 Penn State is placed in No. 7 Boston University’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 10 Cornell is placed in No. 6 UMass Lowell’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 11 Providence is placed in No. 5 Minnesota’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Bemidji State is sent to No. 1 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 15 Canisius is sent to No. 2 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Notre Dame is sent to No. 3 Harvard’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 13 Wisconsin is sent to No. 4 Western Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Western Michigan
11 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Harvard
10 Cornell vs. 6 UMass Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Canisius vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
9 Penn State vs. 7 Boston University
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 8 Union
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none this week.
Time to look at maximizing attendance.
I see one swap that will send an East team East and a West team West: Union and Minnesota.
By doing this, we’ve come closer to bracket integrity in the second and third bands as well.
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Western Michigan
11 Providence vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Harvard
10 Cornell vs. 6 UMass Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Canisius vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
9 Penn State vs. 7 Boston University
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota
Is there anything else that we can do here? I don’t think so.
So it’s quite simple this week.
There’s a lot in flux right now as five of six tournaments will be underway this weekend. There’s a lot at stake for some teams, most noticeably those on the bubble.
Teams like Air Force, St. Cloud State and Boston College have to make it out of this round or else it might be over for them. Sink or swim time as they say, and we’ll know more once it thins out a bit after the weekend.
See you here next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Western Michigan
11 Providence vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Harvard
10 Cornell vs. 6 UMass Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Canisius vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
9 Penn State vs. 7 Boston University
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota
Conference breakdowns
NCHC — 4
Hockey East — 4
ECAC Hockey — 3
Big Ten — 3
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1
Movement
In: North Dakota
Out: Ohio State
Last week’s brackets
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 3 Harvard
12 Providence vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bemidji State vs. 4 Minnesota
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 Western Michigan
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
9 Penn State vs. 6 UMass Lowell
