It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.
It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
We’ll be bringing you a new Bracketology every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 18.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast – Worcester, Mass.; Midwest – Allentown, Pa.; West – Sioux Falls, S.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of January 23:
1t Notre Dame
1t Cornell
3 St. Cloud State
4t Clarkson
4t Denver
6 Minnesota State
7 Ohio State
8 Western Michigan
9t Minnesota
9t Providence
11 Minnesota Duluth
12 North Dakota
13 Northeastern
14 Omaha
15 Michigan
16 Penn State
17t Boston College
31 Canisius
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: Canisius
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Clarkson
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Minnesota State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Canisius.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 1, Clarkosn and Denver at 4, Minnesota and Providence at 9.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Notre Dame
2 Cornell
3 St. Cloud State
4 Clarkson
5 Denver
6 Minnesota State
7 Ohio State
8 Western Michigan
9 Minnesota
10 Providence
11 Minnesota Duluth
12 North Dakota
13 Northeastern
14 Omaha
15 Boston College
16 Canisius
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: Notre Dame, Cornell, St. Cloud State, Clarkson
No. 2 seeds: Denver, Minnesota State, Ohio State, Western Michigan
No. 3 seeds: Minnesota, Providence, Minnesota Duluth, North Dakota
No. 4 seeds: Northeastern, Omaha, Boston College, Canisius
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 2 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 3 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
No. 4 Clarkson is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Western Michigan is placed in No. 1 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 7 Ohio State is placed in No. 2 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 6 Minnesota State is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
North Dakota is a host, therefore it needs to be placed first in this pod:
No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 6 Minnesota State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 9 Minnesota is placed in No. 8 Western Michgan’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 10 Providence is placed in No. 7 Ohio State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 11 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Canisius travels to No. 1 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 15 Boston College travels to No. 2 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 14 Omaha travels to No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 13 Northeastern travels to No. 4 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Western Michigan
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
10 Providence vs. 7 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Omaha vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Northeastern vs. 4 Clarkson
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 5 Denver
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Omaha vs. St. Cloud State and Minnesota-Duluth vs. Denver.
Let’s solve these, shall we?
In this case, we’ll need to swap Omaha with Northeastern as the only choice we really have. With Boston College not being in the Top 16 as an at-large, it is not fair to Cornell to swap Omaha with Cornell in order to leave Northeastern in Worcester.
Then we can only swap Minnesota-Duluth with Providence. This really needs to be done because we’ve now moved Northeastern out of Worcester.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Western Michigan
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Clarkson
10 Providence vs. 5 Denver
Now we have solved the intra-conference matchups.
How can we improve attendance at these regionals?
There’s not a lot you can do with the way it falls out at the moment.
BUT…
Is there another way to look at this? Mark Bedics at the NCAA pointed out distance to regionals to me. So I took it a step further.
Let’s look at the current number one seed in Notre Dame. What is the distance for Notre Dame to the regionals?
Allentown – 640 miles
Sioux Falls – 677 miles
Bridgeport – 761 miles
Worcester – 855 miles
Notre Dame is more than 500 miles to any regional site. That means, according to the NCAA Handbook, that they need to fly.
What do always talk about here at Bracketology? That a flight is a flight so it doesn’t matter where you go. We always say that about Denver, don’t we?
Let’s take a look at the current number two seed in Cornell. What is the distance for Cornell to the regionals?
Allentown – 179 miles
Bridgeport – 260 miles
Worcester – 293 miles
Well, look at that? The closest regional for Cornell is actually Allentown, the Midwest Regional.
Let’s take this into consideration with the caveat added – all teams in the number one seed band are placed in the closest proximity to their campuses – as long as it’s by bus.
So, let’s see:
Notre Dame – more than 500 miles, needs to fly to any regional
Cornell – 179 miles to Allentown
St. Cloud State – 222 miles to Sioux Falls
Clarkson – 325 miles to Worcester (329 to Bridgeport and 347 to Allentown)
If you look at it this way, with the caveat as a factor, you get this:
No. 1 Notre Dame is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Cornell is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 3 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
No. 4 Clarkson is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester
Let’s fill it in from there.
No. 8 Western Michigan is placed in No. 1 Notre Dame’s regional, the East Regional
No. 7 Ohio State is placed in No. 2 Cornell’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 6 Minnesota State is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
North Dakota is a host, therefore it needs to be placed first in this pod:
No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 6 Minnesota State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 9 Minnesota is placed in No. 8 Western Michgan’s regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Providence is placed in No. 7 Ohio State’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 11 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 16 Canisius travels to No. 1 Notre Dame’s regional, the East Regional
No. 15 Boston College travels to No. 2 Cornell’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 14 Omaha travels to No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 13 Northeastern travels to No. 4 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
Our brackets:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
10 Providence vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Western Michigan
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Omaha vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Northeastern vs. 4 Clarkson
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 5 Denver
Same intraconference matchups are there, the same swaps are made.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Western Michigan
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Clarkson
10 Providence vs. 5 Denver
Your first thoughts on this? I’ve just killed attendance in Bridgeport.
I would still stick with the first bracket, but it’s worth taking a look at, especially since this week, Penn State is not in the tournament and thus Allentown becomes a bit of an attendance concern.
See you next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Western Michigan
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Clarkson
10 Providence vs. 5 Denver
Conference breakdowns
NCHC — 6
Big Ten — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Last Week’s Brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
12 Penn State vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Minnesota Duluth vs. 2 Clarkson
9 Providence vs. 7 Western Michigan
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
15 Minnesota vs. 3 St. Cloud State
10 North Dakota vs. 8 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Northeastern vs. 4 Cornell
11 Omaha vs. 5 Ohio State
This week’s movement:
Out: Penn State
In: Boston College
