It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.
It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
We’ll be bringing you a new Bracketology every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 18.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast – Worcester, Mass.; Midwest – Allentown, Pa.; West – Sioux Falls, S.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of January 30:
1t Notre Dame
1t Cornell
3 St. Cloud State
4t Clarkson
4t Denver
6 Ohio State
7 Minnesota State
8 Omaha
9 Providence
10 Minnesota Duluth
11t Minnesota
11t North Dakota
13 Western Michigan
14 Northeastern
15 Penn State
16 Michigan
20 Boston College
31 Canisius
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: Canisius
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Clarkson
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: St. Cloud State (Denver does lead in points though)
WCHA: Minnesota State (Northern Michigan does lead in points though)
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Canisius.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 1, Clarkson and Denver at 4, Minnesota and North Dakota at 11.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Notre Dame
2 Cornell
3 St. Cloud State
4 Clarkson
5 Denver
6 Ohio State
7 Minnesota State
8 Omaha
9 Providence
10 Minnesota Duluth
11 Minnesota
12 North Dakota
13 Western Michigan
14 Northeastern
15 Boston College
16 Canisius
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: Notre Dame, Cornell, St. Cloud State, Clarkson
No. 2 seeds: Denver, Ohio State, Minnesota State, Omaha
No. 3 seeds: Providence, Minnesota Duluth, Minnesota, North Dakota
No. 4 seeds: Western Michigan, Northeastern, Boston College, Canisius
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 2 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 3 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
No. 4 Clarkson is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Omaha is placed in No. 1 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 7 Minnesota State is placed in No. 2 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 6 Ohio State is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
North Dakota is a host, therefore it needs to be placed first in this pod:
No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 6 Ohio State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Omaha’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 10 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 7 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 11 Minnesota is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Canisius travels to No. 1 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 15 Boston College travels to No. 2 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 14 Northeastern travels to No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 13 Western Michigan travels to No. 4 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Providence vs. 8 Omaha
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
11 Minnesota vs. 5 Denver
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none this week.
How can we improve attendance at these regionals?
We can bring Providence to Worcester.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
11 Minnesota vs. 8 Omaha
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
9 Providence vs. 5 Denver
How else can we look at this from an attendance point of view?
You could also swap out the East and Northeast Regionals. i.e. Have Cornell as the top seed in Worcester and Clarkson as the top seed in Bridgeport. That would bring BC into Massachusetts.
I am not inclined to do this, as you’re not gaining much here.
The other debate that we could start includes bringing Northeastern to Worcester and sending Western Michigan to Sioux Falls. This does in fact create a NCHC-NCHC matchup in Western Michigan-St Cloud State. But remember that you could invoke the six teams from one conference rule and create this matchup.
But history has seen that the Committee only invokes this rule if it naturally occurs, and even sometimes breaks it up, but they never have intentionally created an intra-conference matchup.
Thus, I am inclined to keep it as is.
There’s not a lot you can do with the way it falls out at the moment.
BUT…
Last week we looked at distances to the regionals for the number one seeds. Let’s do that again.
Refreshing ourselves from last week we asked – What is the distance for Notre Dame to the regionals?
Allentown – 640 miles
Sioux Falls – 677 miles
Bridgeport – 761 miles
Worcester – 855 miles
Notre Dame is more than 500 miles to any regional site. That means, according to the NCAA Handbook, that they need to fly.
What do always talk about here at Bracketology? That a flight is a flight so it doesn’t matter where you go. We always say that about Denver, don’t we?
Let’s take a look at the current number two seed in Cornell. What is the distance for Cornell to the regionals?
Allentown – 179 miles
Bridgeport – 260 miles
Worcester – 293 miles
The closest regional for Cornell is actually Allentown, the Midwest Regional.
Let’s take this into consideration with the caveat added – all teams in the number one seed band are placed in the closest proximity to their campuses – as long as it’s by bus.
So, let’s see:
Notre Dame – more than 500 miles, needs to fly to any regional
Cornell – 179 miles to Allentown
St. Cloud State – 222 miles to Sioux Falls
Clarkson – 325 miles to Worcester (329 to Bridgeport and 347 to Allentown)
If you look at it this way, with the caveat as a factor, you get this:
No. 1 Notre Dame is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Cornell is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 3 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
No. 4 Clarkson is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester
Let’s fill it in from there.
No. 8 Omaha is placed in No. 1 Notre Dame’s regional, the East Regional
No. 7 Minnesota State is placed in No. 2 Cornell’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 6 Ohio State is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
North Dakota is a host, therefore it needs to be placed first in this pod:
No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 6 Ohio State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Omaha’s regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 7 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 11 Minnesota is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 16 Canisius travels to No. 1 Notre Dame’s regional, the East Regional
No. 15 Boston College travels to No. 2 Cornell’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 14 Northeastern travels to No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 13 Western Michigan travels to No. 4 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
Our brackets:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Providence vs. 8 Omaha
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
11 Minnesota vs. 5 Denver
Looking at attendance issues, we don’t have any room to move here at all using the same debate regarding the six teams from the NCHC that we made above.
My thoughts? Attendance takes a beating in Bridgeport and Worcester. But this is the trouble at the current moment with how the PairWise is shaking out.
The issue?
There are essentially three “Eastern” Regionals and most of the PairWise consists of “Western” teams. It causes attendance issues here that can’t be solved. But that’s what happens in the wacky world of the PairWise.
See you next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
11 Minnesota vs. 8 Omaha
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
9 Providence vs. 5 Denver
Conference breakdowns
NCHC — 6
Big Ten — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Last Week’s Brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Western Michigan
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Clarkson
10 Providence vs. 5 Denver
This week’s movement:
Out: None
In: None
