It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
We’ll be bringing you a new Bracketology every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 18.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast – Worcester, Mass.; Midwest – Allentown, Pa.; West – Sioux Falls, S.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of February 13:
1 St. Cloud State
2t Notre Dame
2t Cornell
2t Denver
5 Minnesota State
6 Ohio State
7 Clarkson
8 Providence
9t Minnesota
9t Omaha
9t Minnesota Duluth
12 North Dakota
13 Western Michigan
14 Northeastern
15 Michigan
16 Northern Michigan
23 Boston College
35 Canisius
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: Canisius
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Minnesota State (Northern Michigan does lead in points with two more games played)
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Canisius.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame, St. Cloud State and Denver at 1, Clarkson and Denver at 4, Minnesota and Omaha at 9 and Providence and Minnesota Duluth at 11.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Notre Dame
3 Cornell
4 Denver
5 Minnesota State
6 Ohio State
7 Clarkson
8 Providence
9 Minnesota
10 Omaha
11 Minnesota Duluth
12 North Dakota
13 Western Michigan
14 Northeastern
15 Boston College
16 Canisius
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Notre Dame, Cornell, Denver
No. 2 seeds: Minnesota State, Ohio State, Clarkson, Providence
No. 3 seeds: Minnesota, Omaha, Minnesota Duluth, North Dakota
No. 4 seeds: Western Michigan, Northeastern, Boston College, Canisius
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
No. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 3 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 4 Denver is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Providence placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Clarkson is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 6 Ohio State is placed in No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 5 Minnesota State is placed in No. 4 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
We must place North Dakota first, since it is a host school.
No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 8 Providence’s regional, the West Regional
No. 9 Minnesota is placed in No. 7 Clarkson’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 10 Omaha is placed in No. 6 Ohio State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 11 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 5 Minnesota State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Canisius travels to No. 1 St Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Boston College travels to No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 14 Northeastern travels to No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 13 Western Michigan travels to No. 4 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 7 Clarkson
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 Cornell
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 8 Providence
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Denver
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 5 Minnesota State
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Western Michigan vs. Denver.
We swap Northeastern with Western Michigan.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 7 Clarkson
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Cornell
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 8 Providence
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Denver
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 5 Minnesota State
How can we improve attendance at these regionals?
We can bring Providence back to the East. By creating a 5 vs. 12 matchup in Sioux Falls, the seeding falls nicely.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 7 Clarkson
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Cornell
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Denver
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Providence
While we are at it, why don’t we make more changes? Let’s look at Clarkson and Ohio State. While Clarkson is pretty much equidistant to Allentown, Bridgeport and Worcester, Ohio State is definitely closer to Allentown. But we can’t just switch Clarkson and Ohio State. So we move the entire matchups.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Cornell
9 Minnesota vs. 7 Clarkson
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Denver
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Providence
One step further. We have two Hockey East teams in Worcester and no ECAC teams. We have two ECAC teams in Bridgeport and no Hockey East teams.
We swap again!
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Cornell
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Providence
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Denver
9 Minnesota vs. 7 Clarkson
I think I am good now.
BUT…
There is that question of “punishing” the overall number one seed here by placing them in a regional that has a host playing in it, even though it’s the closest regional to it.
We have that case this week where St. Cloud State is playing in a regional with host North Dakota.
Some say it’s not fair, some say that’s how to cookie crumbles by having host schools having to play there, etc. That’s a whole different argument that we won’t get into here.
But, what I want to talk about is, what happens if I, as the committee, say that this is unfair to St. Cloud. Therefore, I will not place them in Sioux Falls, even though it’s the closest regional to St. Cloud.
Therefore, when I start, I am going to place St. Cloud in Allentown. And I am also going to say that the lowest number one seed should play in the regional of the host school. In this case, it’s Denver.
Following all of this, let’s see what we get:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Providence
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 Cornell
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 7 Clarkson
OK, let’s attack this again. We swap Western Michigan and Northeastern.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Providence
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Cornell
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 7 Clarkson
I swap the Providence and Ohio State matchups.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Cornell
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Providence
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 7 Clarkson
Can I be happy with this? I think so. It’s not a bad bracket at all.
The question becomes do you move out St. Cloud State or not?
For me, I do. I think it’s fair.
Debate away!
See you next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Cornell
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Providence
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 7 Clarkson
Conference breakdowns
NCHC — 6
Big Ten — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Last Week’s Brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Western Michigan vs. 4 Cornell
11 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
15 Boston College vs. 2 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota vs. 8 North Dakota
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 Denver
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson
This week’s movement:
Out: None
In: None
