It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.
It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
We’ll be bringing you a new Bracketology every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 18.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast – Worcester, Mass.; Midwest – Allentown, Pa.; West – Sioux Falls, S.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of February 20:
1 St. Cloud State
2t Notre Dame
2t Cornell
4t Minnesota State
4t Denver
6 Ohio State
7 Clarkson
8t Minnesota
8t Providence
8t Minnesota Duluth
11 Michigan
12 Northeastern
13 North Dakota
14 Omaha
15 Western Michigan
16 Northern Michigan
20 Boston College
26 Mercyhurst
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: Mercyhurst
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Minnesota State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Canisius.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 2, Minnesota State and Denver at 4, and Minnesota, Providence and Minnesota Duluth at 8.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Notre Dame
3 Cornell
4 Minnesota State
5 Denver
6 Ohio State
7 Clarkson
8 Minnesota
9 Providence
10 Minnesota Duluth
11 Michigan
12 Northeastern
13 North Dakota
14 Omaha
15 Boston College
16 Mercyhurst
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Notre Dame, Cornell, Minnesota State
No. 2 seeds: Denver, Ohio State, Clarkson, Minnesota
No. 3 seeds: Providence, Minnesota Duluth, Michigan, Northeastern
No. 4 seeds: North Dakota, Omaha, Boston College, Mercyhurst
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
No. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 3 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 4 Minnesota State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Minnesota placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Clarkson is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 6 Ohio State is placed in No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Minnesota State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Minnesota’s regional, the West Regional
No. 10 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 7 Clarkson’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 11 Michigan is placed in No. 6 Ohio State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 12 Northeastern is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
But we must place North Dakota first, since it is a host school.
No. 13 North Dakota travels to No. 1 St Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 16 Mercyhurst travels to No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 15 Boston College travels to No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 14 Omaha travels to No. 4 Minnesota State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 3 Cornell
11 Michigan vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Minnesota State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
I’m going to say it now – this is a mess.
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have St. Cloud vs. North Dakota and Michigan vs. Ohio State.
If we do things as we do normally, we head down this road:
We need to move St. Cloud since we can’t move North Dakota. I am going to swap St. Cloud with Minnesota State.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 3 Cornell
11 Michigan vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
I have created another NCHC-NCHC matchup, so now we need to move Omaha. We swap Omaha with Mercyhurst since we protecting the number one seed, as the committee has done in the past.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Omaha vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 3 Cornell
11 Michigan vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
Now we look at the Michigan-Ohio State matchup. We can swap Michigan with Minnesota Duluth, as we can’t swap with Providence. That would create another all Big Ten matchup.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Omaha vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 3 Cornell
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
Now we can look at how to improve attendance at these regionals?
Providence to Bridgeport is one way.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Omaha vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 3 Cornell
9 Providence vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Minnesota
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
I think that’s about all I can do. It’s tough this week.
BUT…
Knowing that we have a mess of a bracket because of a host school, let’s take a look at it another way. Now I will fully admit that this is not the method called out for by the Handbook. But let’s explore it anyway.
Let’s take it with matchups and move them to brackets which make sense, bracket integrity-wise, attendance-wise.
What I mean here is that we going to look at matchups and then place them in brackets.
e.g. we create the matchups for the number on seeds:
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
And in turn
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
11 Michigan vs. 6 Ohio State
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
Let’s place these matchups in brackets that make sense starting with the first set of matchups.
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State needs to be in the West Regional.
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell makes sense in Bridgeport and the East Regional.
Now, we have to figure out where to put St. Cloud and Notre Dame.
I see a Boston College-Notre Dame matchup, so I am going to with this headed to Worcester and the Northeast Regional, leaving St. Cloud in the Midwest Regional.
Now we look bracket the second set with integrity in mind and we get:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
11 Michigan vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson
We have one intraconference matchup to look at and that is Michigan-Ohio State. How do we solve it? Michigan to Worcester and Minnesota Duluth to Bridgeport.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson
Attendance concerns? I still want Providence in Bridgeport. I move the entire matchup.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson
Is there anything else that can be done? Not in this situation.
Call it what you will, it seems like I made up a bracket out of thin air without any regards for the rules and how things are supposed to go. And you would be right to a certain extent. But you can’t tell me that this is not something the committee, and probably you yourselves, wouldn’t think about doing, right?
See you next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson
Conference breakdowns
NCHC — 5
Big Ten — 4
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Last Week’s Brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 St. Cloud State
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Cornell
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Providence
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 7 Clarkson
This week’s movement:
Out: Western Michigan
In: Michigan
