It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.
It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
We’ll be bringing you a new Bracketology every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 18.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast – Worcester, Mass.; Midwest – Allentown, Pa.; West – Sioux Falls, S.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the remaining highest seeds in the tournaments through all games of March 7:
1 St. Cloud State
2t Notre Dame
2t Cornell
4 Ohio State
5t Minnesota State
5t Denver
7t Michigan
7t Clarkson
9 Minnesota Duluth
10 Northeastern
11 Penn State
12 Providence
13 Minnesota
14 Omaha
15 North Dakota
16 Bowling Green
17t Boston College
22 Mercyhurst
Current highest remaining seeds BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: Mercyhurst
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Minnesota State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• The top seeds in each conference tournament and the current conference leaders are my assumed conference tournament champions.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Canisius.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 2, Minnesota State and Denver at 5, and Michigan and Clarkson at 7.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Notre Dame
3 Cornell
4 Ohio State
5 Minnesota State
6 Denver
7 Michigan
8 Clarkson
9 Minnesota Duluth
10 Northeastern
11 Penn State
12 Providence
13 Minnesota
14 Omaha
15 Boston College
16 Mercyhurst
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Notre Dame, Cornell, Ohio State
No. 2 seeds: Minnesota State, Denver, Michigan, Clarkson
No. 3 seeds: Minnesota Duluth, Northeastern, Penn State, Providence
No. 4 seeds: Minnesota, Omaha, Boston College, Mercyhurst
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals according to geography.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
No. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 3 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 4 Minnesota State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Clarkson placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Michigan is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 5 Minnesota State is placed in No. 4 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Penn State, as a host school, must be placed first.
No. 11 Penn State is placed in No. 7 Michigan’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 9 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 8 Clarkson’s regional, the West Regional
No. 10 Northeastern is placed in No. 6 Denver’s regional, the East Regional
No. 12 Providence is placed in No. 5 Minnesota State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Mercyhurst travels to No. 1 St Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Boston College travels to No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 14 Omaha travels to No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 13 Minnesota travels to No. 4 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 7 Michigan
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
10 Northeastern vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Clarkson
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Ohio State
12 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State
It’s quite messy again.
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Penn State vs. Michigan and Minnesota vs. Ohio State.
We can’t swap Penn State since it is a host. Therefore Michigan must be swapped. We swap Michigan with Denver.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
10 Northeastern vs. 7 Michigan
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Clarkson
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Ohio State
12 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State
Now we have to swap out Minnesota. We swap Minnesota with Omaha.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
10 Northeastern vs. 7 Michigan
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Clarkson
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Ohio State
12 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State
Now we adjust for attendance.
We can swap Clarkson with Michigan to bring another team to Bridgeport.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
10 Northeastern vs. 8 Clarkson
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Ohio State
12 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State
I think swapping the matchups of Northeastern vs. Clarkson and Providence vs. Minnesota State might help a little more to Worcester.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
12 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Ohio State
10 Northeastern vs. 8 Clarkson
I think that’s about all I can do. It’s tough this week.
BUT…
The “but” is back this week.
The major issue this year is that there are basically three “Eastern-based” Regionals and there are more “Western-based” teams that seem to be in line for at-large bids. Thus, it’s tough to move some teams around for attendance purposes.
Let’s look at Notre Dame and Ohio State this week. Notre Dame is more than 500 miles from every single Regional, thus it has to fly. Ohio State is also more than 500 miles from every single Regional – except Allentown. Ohio State is only 446 miles from Allentown. Now we can form a basis for my bracket.
Based on the number one seeds, we have:
St. Cloud in Sioux Falls, Ohio State in Allentown, Cornell in Bridgeport and Notre Dame in Worcester.
What does that get us?
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Ohio State
11 Penn State vs. 5 Minnesota State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
12 Providence vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Clarkson
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Northeastern vs. 7 Michigan
We now only have Minnesota vs. Ohio State as an intraconference matchup.
We swap Minnesota with Omaha.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Ohio State
11 Penn State vs. 5 Minnesota State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
12 Providence vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 8 Clarkson
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Northeastern vs. 7 Michigan
Is there anything else? Why not swap Michigan and Clarkson to get Clarkson closer east?
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Ohio State
11 Penn State vs. 5 Minnesota State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
12 Providence vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Northeastern vs. 8 Clarkson
You can’t tell me that you don’t like this bracket much more than the other one above. I like this bracket a lot and that’s what I would go with.
See you next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Ohio State
11 Penn State vs. 5 Minnesota State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
12 Providence vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Northeastern vs. 8 Clarkson
Conference breakdowns
Big Ten — 5
NCHC — 4
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Last Week’s Brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
13 Penn State vs. 3 Cornell
10 Michigan vs. 5 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Providence vs. 7 Clarkson
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Northeastern vs. 6 Ohio State
This week’s movement:
Out: North Dakota
In: Omaha
