It’s time for the final Bracketology of the season. Here I will predict how I think the NCAA Ice Hockey Committee will think and what the bracket will look like when it is announced (noon Sunday ET, ESPNU).
First, here is my predicted bracket and then I’ll explain how I got there afterwards:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Princeton vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 6 Minnesota State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Michigan Tech vs. 3 Cornell
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Providence
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
10 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver
Here is the final top 16 of the final PairWise Rankings (PWR) and the autobids not in the Top 16:
Autobids:
Atlantic Hockey: Air Force
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Princeton
Hockey East: Boston University
NCHC: Denver
WCHA: Michigan Tech
1 St. Cloud State
2t Notre Dame
2t Cornell
4t Ohio State
4t Denver
6 Minnesota State
7 Providence
8t Michigan
8t Northeastern
10 Clarkson
11 Penn State
12t Minnesota Duluth
12t Minnesota
14 North Dakota
15 Boston University
16t Boston College
16t Bowling Green
16t Princeton
21 Michigan Tech
27 Air Force
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any autobids that are not in the Top 16.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 2, Ohio State and Denver at 4, Michigan and Northeastern at 8 and Minnesota Duluth and Minnesota at 12.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Notre Dame
3 Cornell
4 Ohio State
5 Denver
6 Minnesota State
7 Providence
8 Michigan
9 Northeastern
10 Clarkson
11 Penn State
12 Minnesota Duluth
13 Boston University
14 Princeton
15 Michigan Tech
16 Air Force
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Notre Dame, Cornell, Ohio State
No. 2 seeds: Denver, Minnesota State, Providence, Michigan
No. 3 seeds: Northeastern, Clarkson, Penn State, Minnesota Duluth
No. 4 seeds: Boston University, Princeton, Michigan Tech, Air Force
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals according to geography.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
No. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 3 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 4 Ohio State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Michigan is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Providence is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 6 Minnesota State is placed in No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Penn State, as a host school, must be placed first.
No. 11 Penn State is placed in No. 7 Providence’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 9 Northeastern is placed in No. 8 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional
No. 10 Clarkson is placed in No. 6 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 12 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Air Force travels to No. 1 St Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Michigan Tech travels to No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 14 Princeton travels to No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
No. 13 Boston University travels to No. 4 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Michigan Tech vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 7 Providence
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Princeton vs. 3 Cornell
10 Clarkson vs. 6 Minnesota State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 5 Denver
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Princeton vs. Cornell and Minnesota Duluth vs. Denver.
We swap Princeton with Michigan Tech and then we swap Minnesota Duluth with Clarkson.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Princeton vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 7 Providence
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Michigan Tech vs. 3 Cornell
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Minnesota State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
10 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver
Now that we have solved all intra-conference matchups, let’s look at attendance.
We see that Bridgeport could use a little help. But how can we help it?
We can try to bring Providence or Northeastern to Bridgeport.
I swap Providence with Minnesota State.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Princeton vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 6 Minnesota State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Michigan Tech vs. 3 Cornell
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Providence
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
10 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver
My other choice would have been bringing Northeastern to Bridgeport; that would mean swapping it and Minnesota Duluth. But with Providence higher in the PairWise, I move Providence instead.
We can do some more things like try to get the all-Minnesota matchup to Sioux Falls, but I am not inclined to think that the movements are worth messing with the bracket integrity too much.
So I will stand pat with this.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
My predicted bracket
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Princeton vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Penn State vs. 6 Minnesota State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Michigan Tech vs. 3 Cornell
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Providence
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
10 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver
Conference breakdowns
Big Ten — 4
NCHC — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 3
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
Last week’s brackets
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Northern Michigan vs. 4 Ohio State
12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
9 Providence vs. 6 Minnesota State
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
10 Michigan vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
11 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern
This week’s movement
Out: Mercyhurst, Northern Michigan, Boston College, Minnesota
In: Air Force, Michigan Tech, Boston University, Princeton
