We’re at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone’s minds.
Will my team make the NCAA tournament? Where does it sit in the PairWise Rankings (PWR)?
Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.
Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.
With that in mind, it’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
This is the first installment of Bracketology for 2019 and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on the evening of March 24.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Providence, R.I. (March 30-31); Northeast – Manchester, N.H. (March 29-30); Midwest – Allentown, Pa. (March 30-31); West – Fargo, N.D.(March 29-30).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, University of New Hampshire in Manchester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Fargo.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2019 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of January 22:
1t St. Cloud State
1t Massachusetts
3 Denver
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Ohio State
6 Quinnipiac
7 Northeastern
8 Minnesota State
9 Cornell
10 Clarkson
11 Arizona State
12 Bowling Green
13 Western Michigan
14t Notre Dame
14t Union
16 Providence
38 American International
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Ohio State
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Massachusetts
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Minnesota State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is American International.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Massachusetts at 1 and Notre Dame and Union at 14.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Massachusetts
3 Denver
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Ohio State
6 Quinnipiac
7 Northeastern
8 Minnesota State
9 Cornell
10 Clarkson
11 Arizona State
12 Bowling Green
13 Western Michigan
14 Notre Dame
15 Union
16 American International
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Denver, Minnesota Duluth
No. 2 seeds: Ohio State, Quinnipiac, Northeastern, Minnesota State
No. 3 seeds: Cornell, Clarkson, Arizona State, Bowling Green
No. 4 seeds: Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Union, American International
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is place in Fargo
No. 2 Massachusetts is placed in Manchester
No. 3 Denver is placed in Allentown
No. 4 Minnesota Duluth is placed in Providence
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Minnesota State is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Northeastern is placed in No. 2 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 6 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 3 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 5 Ohio State is placed in No. 4 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the East Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Cornell is placed in No. 8 Minnesota State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 10 Clarkson is placed in No. 7 Northeastern’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 11 Arizona State is placed in No. 6 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 12 Bowling Green is placed in No. 5 Ohio State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Union travels to No. 2 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 Notre Dame travels to No. 3 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 13 Western Michigan travels to No. 4 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the East Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Cornell vs. 8 Minnesota State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Denver
11 Arizona State vs. 6 Quinnipiac
East Regional (Providence):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
12 Bowling Green vs. 5 Ohio State
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Union vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern
Let me answer the question right now – why is Denver in Allentown and not Providence and why is Minnesota-Duluth sent to Providence and not Allentown.
There is no simple answer, but for me, the answer is that Denver is closer to Allentown than Providence. And since they are higher in the PairWise than Minnesota Duluth, it gets sent to Allentown. There is no other reason – at this time.
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Western Michigan vs. Minnesota-Duluth.
Let’s solve it by finding a suitable swap.
We can’t swap Western Michigan with Notre Dame because that creates another NCHC-NCHC matchup with Western Michigan and Denver. So we swap Western Michigan with Union. That solves the issue.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Cornell vs. 8 Minnesota State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Denver
11 Arizona State vs. 6 Quinnipiac
East Regional (Providence):
15 Union vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
12 Bowling Green vs. 5 Ohio State
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern
Now we have no intra-conference matchups.
How can we improve attendance at these regionals?
Providence looks like it could use some Eastern influence. We can swap individual teams, or entire matchups if we want.
With that in mind, how can we get some teams closer to their fan bases?
Allentown is closer than Providence for the Ohio-based teams. Perhaps a swap of matchups in the 2-3 band?
Meaning we send the Arizona State-Quinnipiac matchup to Providence and the Bowling Green-Ohio State matchup to Allentown.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Cornell vs. 8 Minnesota State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Denver
12 Bowling Green vs. 5 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
15 Union vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
11 Arizona State vs. 6 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern
Now I think that creates about the best attendance-wise bracket while keeping as much bracket integrity as possible.
Now let’s head back to what I mentioned before – why is Denver in Allentown and Minnesota Duluth in Providence? No other reason other than distance.
Looking at how we made the swap of the 2-3 bands for Allentown and Providence, what if we just randomly put Denver in Providence and then put Minnesota-Duluth in Allentown?
You would still need to make the swap to eliminate the Western Michigan-Minnesota-Duluth matchup. But here is what you would get:
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Cornell vs. 8 Minnesota State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Union vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
12 Bowling Green vs. 5 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Denver
11 Arizona State vs. 6 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern
Bracket integrity wise, this aligns almost perfectly, because you only made one switch – Western Michigan swapping with Union.
But attendance-wise, I think you benefit a little more with Union in Providence. So I would make a swap here of Union and Notre Dame.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Cornell vs. 8 Minnesota State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Notre Dame vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
12 Bowling Green vs. 5 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
15 Union vs. 3 Denver
11 Arizona State vs. 6 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern
Just a slight difference with Denver and Minnesota-Duluth interchanged.
So which one is better? It’s hard to say, but bracket integrity-wise, it’s this one.
Therefore, I choose this bracket.
I think this is about all we can do this week.
This is quite an even field, though ECAC and NCHC take up eight slots, it’s still pretty diverse.
So that is it. My bracket for the week.
But remember: There are so many changes between now and the actual bracket announcement.
See you next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Cornell vs. 8 Minnesota State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Notre Dame vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
12 Bowling Green vs. 5 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
15 Union vs. 3 Denver
11 Arizona State vs. 6 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern
Conference breakdowns
ECAC Hockey — 4
NCHC — 4
Big Ten — 2
Hockey East — 2
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Independent – 1
A Year Ago
What did the first Bracketology last year look like?
Let’s take a look.
The Brackets I predicted in the first Bracketology last year from January 2018.
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
12 Penn State vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Minnesota Duluth vs. 2 Clarkson
9 Providence vs. 7 Western Michigan
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
15 Minnesota vs. 3 St. Cloud State
10 North Dakota vs. 8 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Northeastern vs. 4 Cornell
11 Omaha vs. 5 Ohio State
And the actual bracket from last year:
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Princeton vs. 4 Ohio State
11 Penn State vs. 5 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Michigan Tech vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Providence
West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Minnesota State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Boston University vs. 3 Cornell
9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan
Who was in and who was out from the first Bracketology to the actual bracket?
Out: Western Michigan (7), North Dakota (10), Omaha (11), Minnesota (15), Canisius (16)
In: Michigan (8), Boston University (13), Princeton (14), Michigan Tech (15), Air Force (16)
Of those teams that were in, Princeton, Michigan Tech and Air Force won autobids, Boston University won an autobid, but did finish 15th in the PairWise. Michigan played its way in.
North Dakota and Minnesota got squeezed out by the autobids.
Things can change, you can play your way in and the autobid can change things quite a bit.
