It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.
It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
We’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on the evening of March 24.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Providence, R.I.(March 30-31); Northeast – Manchester, N.H.(March 29-30); Midwest – Allentown, Pa.(March 30-31); West – Fargo, N.D.(March 29-30).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, University of New Hampshire in Manchester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Fargo.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2019 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of February 12:
1t St. Cloud State
1t Massachusetts
3 Ohio State
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Quinnipiac
6 Minnesota State
7 Denver
8 Cornell
9 Arizona State
10 Western Michigan
11t UMass Lowell
11t Clarkson
13t Harvard
13t Northeastern
15 Bowling Green
16t Providence
16t Notre Dame
28 American International
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Ohio State
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Massachusetts
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Minnesota State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is American International.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Massachusetts at 1, UMass Lowell and Clarkson at 11, Harvard and Northeastern at 13 and Providence and Notre Dame at 16.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Massachusetts
3 Ohio State
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Quinnipiac
6 Minnesota State
7 Denver
8 Cornell
9 Arizona State
10 Western Michigan
11 UMass Lowell
12 Clarkson
13 Harvard
14 Northeastern
15 Bowling Green
16 American International
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Ohio State, Minnesota Duluth
No. 2 seeds: Quinnipiac, Minnesota State, Denver, Cornell
No. 3 seeds: Arizona State, Western Michigan, UMass Lowell, Clarkson
No. 4 seeds: Harvard, Northeastern, Bowling Green, American International
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is place in Fargo
No. 2 Massachusetts is placed in Manchester
No. 3 Ohio State is placed in Allentown
No. 4 Minnesota Duluth is placed in Providence
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Cornell is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Denver is placed in No. 2 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 6 Minnesota State is placed in No. 3 Ohio State’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 5 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 4 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the East Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Arizona State is placed in No. 8 Cornell’s regional, the West Regional
No. 10 Western Michigan is placed in No. 7 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 11 UMass Lowell is placed in No. 6 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 12 Clarkson is placed in No. 5 Quinnipiac’s regional, the East Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Bowling Green travels to No. 2 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 Northeastern travels to No. 3 Ohio State’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 13 Harvard travels to No. 4 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the East Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Arizona State vs. 8 Cornell
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 Ohio State
11 UMass Lowell vs. 6 Minnesota State
East Regional (Providence):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
12 Clarkson vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Western Michigan vs. 7 Denver
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Clarkson vs. Quinnipiac
We can simply swap Clarkson with Western Michigan. But wouldn’t we like to get UMass Lowell to Manchester? Let’s make it a three-way swap.
Clarkson to Allentown, UMass Lowell to Manchester and Western Michigan to Providence.
Kalamazoo to Allentown is 650miles, Kalamazoo to Providence is 882 miles – Western Michigan flies either way.
Potsdam to Allentown is 348 miles, Potsdam to Providence is 357 miles – Clarkson is closer to Allentown.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Arizona State vs. 8 Cornell
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 Ohio State
12 Clarkson vs. 6 Minnesota State
East Regional (Providence):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Western Michigan vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 UMass Lowell vs. 7 Denver
More attendance items. I see another three-way swap in the fourth band.
Bowling Green to Allentown, Northeastern to Providence (since Northeastern can’t go to Manchester to play Massachusetts) and Harvard to Manchester.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Arizona State vs. 8 Cornell
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 3 Ohio State
12 Clarkson vs. 6 Minnesota State
East Regional (Providence):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Western Michigan vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 UMass Lowell vs. 7 Denver
I think this is about all we can do this week.
That’s my bracket for the week based on how I think the committee will think.
See you next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Arizona State vs. 8 Cornell
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 3 Ohio State
12 Clarkson vs. 6 Minnesota State
East Regional (Providence):
14 Northeastern vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Western Michigan vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 UMass Lowell vs. 7 Denver
Conference breakdowns
NCHC — 4
ECAC Hockey — 4
Hockey East — 3
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Big Ten — 1
Independent – 1
Last Week’s Bracket
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Western Michigan vs. 6 Minnesota State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
13 UMass Lowell vs. 3 Ohio State
12 Clarkson vs. 8 Arizona State
East Regional (Providence):
15 Providence vs. 4 Quinnipiac
10 Cornell vs. 5 Minnesota Duluth
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 Northeastern vs. 7 Denver
Out: Providence (15)
In: Harvard (13)
