It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.
It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
We’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on the evening of March 24.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Providence, R.I.(March 30-31); Northeast – Manchester, N.H.(March 29-30); Midwest – Allentown, Pa.(March 30-31); West – Fargo, N.D.(March 29-30).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, University of New Hampshire in Manchester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Fargo.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2019 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders or number one seeds in their conference tournaments through all games of March 5:
1t St. Cloud State
1t Massachusetts
3 Minnesota Duluth
4 Minnesota State
5 Quinnipiac
6 Denver
7 Ohio State
8 Arizona State
9t Providence
9t Clarkson
11 Northeastern
12 Cornell
13 Harvard
14 Western Michigan
15 Notre Dame
16 Penn State
32 American International
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage or number one seeds in their conference tournaments BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Ohio State
ECAC Hockey: Quinnipiac
Hockey East: Massachusetts
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Minnesota State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is American International.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Massachusetts at 1, and Providence and Clarkson at 9
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Massachusetts
3 Minnesota Duluth
4 Minnesota State
5 Quinnipiac
6 Denver
7 Ohio State
8 Arizona State
9 Providence
10 Clarkson
11 Northeastern
12 Cornell
13 Harvard
14 Western Michigan
15 Notre Dame
16 American International
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Minnesota Duluth, Minnesota State
No. 2 seeds: Quinnipiac, Denver, Ohio State, Arizona State
No. 3 seeds: Providence, Clarkson, Northeastern, Cornell
No. 4 seeds: Harvard, Western Michigan, Notre Dame, American International
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is place in Fargo
No. 2 Massachusetts is placed in Manchester
No. 3 Minnesota Duluth is placed in Allentown
No. 4 Minnesota State is placed in Providence
This has been done based on distance – nothing else. Minnesota Duluth is closer to Allentown than Providence.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Arizona State is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Ohio State is placed in No. 2 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 5 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 4 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Arizona State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 10 Clarkson is placed in No. 7 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 11 Northeastern is placed in No. 6 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 12 Cornell is placed in No. 5 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Notre Dame travels to No. 2 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 Western Michigan travels to No. 3 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 13 Harvard travels to No. 4 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Providence vs. 8 Arizona State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Western Michigan vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
11 Northeastern vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Providence):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota State
12 Cornell vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have two in Cornell versus Quinnipiac and Western Michigan versus Minnesota Duluth.
In the past, as we have stated, Providence is known to be moved to play in Providence. But in this case, Providence is in Fargo. And all the teams in the third band are eastern teams. So is it right to move an Eastern team to Providence, just to have Providence play in Providence?
Let’s say that this is a major factor. We also take into account other possibilities. As Cornell is the lowest third-banded team, it is placed West. Then we place by proximity.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Cornell vs. 8 Arizona State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Western Michigan vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
10 Clarkson vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Providence):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota State
9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 Northeastern vs. 7 Ohio State
And because Ohio State is closer to Allentown, we move the entire matchup.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Cornell vs. 8 Arizona State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Western Michigan vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota State
9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 Northeastern vs. 6 Denver
Now we take care of Western Michigan and Minnesota Duluth.
We swap Western and Notre Dame.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Cornell vs. 8 Arizona State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota State
9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 Northeastern vs. 6 Denver
And that looks like it for this week.
That’s my bracket for the week based on how I think the committee will think – I just can’t get away from the Providence should be in Providence precedent that was set in previous years.
See you next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Cornell vs. 8 Arizona State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
10 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota State
9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 Northeastern vs. 6 Denver
Conference breakdowns
ECAC Hockey — 4
NCHC — 4
Hockey East — 3
Big Ten – 2
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Independent – 1
WCHA — 1
Last Week’s Bracket
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
11 Western Michigan vs. 5 Minnesota State
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
12 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
13 Cornell vs. 4 Denver
9 Providence vs. 6 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Northeastern vs. 8 Arizona State
Out: Bowling Green (15)
In: Notre Dame (15)
