It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.
It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
This is the penultimate Bracketology as the next one will be when I make my final picks before the field is announced on the evening of March 24.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Providence, R.I. (March 30-31); Northeast – Manchester, N.H. (March 29-30); Midwest – Allentown, Pa. (March 30-31); West – Fargo, N.D. (March 29-30).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, University of New Hampshire in Manchester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Fargo.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2019 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the highest seeds remaining in their conference tournaments through all games of March 19:
1t St. Cloud State
1t Massachusetts
3 Minnesota State
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Quinnipiac
6 Denver
7 Ohio State
8 Northeastern
9 Clarkson
10 Arizona State
11 Cornell
12 Harvard
13 Bowling Green
14t Providence
14t Notre Dame
16 Penn State
32 American International
Current remaining highest seeds in their conference tournaments BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Massachusetts
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Minnesota State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• The highest remaining seed in all of the conference tournaments is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is American International.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Massachusetts at 1, and Providence and Notre Dame at 14
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Massachusetts
3 Minnesota State
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Quinnipiac
6 Denver
7 Ohio State
8 Northeastern
9 Clarkson
10 Arizona State
11 Cornell
12 Harvard
13 Bowling Green
14 Providence
15 Notre Dame
16 American International
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth
No. 2 seeds: Quinnipiac, Devner, Ohio State, Northeastern
No. 3 seeds: Clarkson, Arizona State, Cornell, Harvard
No. 4 seeds: Bowling Green, Providence, Notre Dame, American International
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is place in Fargo
No. 2 Massachusetts is placed in Manchester
No. 3 Minnesota State is placed in Allentown
No. 4 Minnesota Duluth is placed in Providence
This has been done based on distance – nothing else. Minnesota State is closer to Allentown than Providence.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Northeastern is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Ohio State is placed in No. 2 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 5 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 4 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the East Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Clarkson is placed in No. 8 Northeastern’s regional, the West Regional
No. 10 Arizona State is placed in No. 7 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 11 Cornell is placed in No. 6 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 12 Harvard is placed in No. 5 Quinnipiac’s regional, the East Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Notre Dame travels to No. 2 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 Providence travels to No. 3 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 13 Bowling Green travels to No. 4 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the East Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Providence):
13 Bowling Green vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
12 Harvard vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Ohio State
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Harvard versus Quinnipiac.
Since there are three ECAC teams in the third band, only Arizona State can play Quinnipiac. Thus, we have Arizona State play Quinnipiac.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Providence):
13 Bowling Green vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
12 Harvard vs. 7 Ohio State
Now let’s look at placing teams as close to their campus as possible. This is an important criteria for the NCAA Championship Committee. This does not mean ”where there are a lot of alumni/alumnae” – it is about the student-athlete experience and the students and campus. That is more important than where there may be an alumni/alumnae base.
This is sometimes misinterpreted as attendance – it’s about being close to campus and about what makes it an experience for the students and the student-athlete.
Thus, we want Providence in Providence – it’s as simple as that.
We swap Providence and Bowling Green. But we can’t, because that creates an all-WCHA matchup. Thus Bowling Green has to go to Manchester and Notre Dame to Allentown.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Denver
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
12 Harvard vs. 7 Ohio State
Next up we look at the second band where we take a look at Denver, Ohio State and Northeastern.
Northeastern to Manchester – based on our what we just stated, this makes sense.
Ohio State to Allentown – this also makes sense.
Which leaves Denver in Fargo.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Clarkson vs. 6 Denver
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
12 Harvard vs. 8 Northeastern
There can be some argument for bracket integrity. Why not swap Clarkson and Harvard?
That’s a great argument. It does go against the closest to campus, but you would be rewarding a higher seed with a game closer to its’ campus. And the integrity would be better.
Therefore, I am going to do it.
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Harvard vs. 6 Denver
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern
I think this is more fair and true to the seeding while taking into account proximity to campus.
And that looks like it for this week.
See you next week for the Final Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Harvard vs. 6 Denver
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 7 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern
Conference breakdowns
ECAC Hockey — 4
Hockey East — 3
NCHC — 3
Big Ten – 2
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Independent – 1
Last Week’s Bracket
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Denver
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Minnesota State
12 Cornell vs. 6 Ohio State
East Regional (Providence):
14 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
11 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern
Out: Western Michigan
In: Bowling Green
