Final Bracketology: The prediction for the 2019 NCAA men’s hockey tournament bracket

Minnesota State and Bowling Green both make the NCAA tournament after playing in Saturday’s WCHA championship game, an overtime victory for the Mavericks (photo: Tim Brule).

It’s time for the final Bracketology of the season. Here, I will predict how I think the NCAA Ice Hockey Committee will think and what the bracket will look like when it is announced at 7 p.m. EDT Sunday on ESPNU.

First, here is my predicted bracket and then I’ll explain how I got there afterwards:

West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Ohio State vs. 8 Denver

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Quinnipiac

East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson

Here is the final top 16 of the final PairWise Rankings (PWR) and the autobids not in the Top 16:

Autobids:

Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Clarkson
Hockey East: Northeastern
NCHC: Minnesota Duluth
WCHA: Minnesota State

1t St. Cloud State
1t Minnesota Duluth
3 Minnesota State
4 Massachusetts
5 Clarkson
6 Northeastern
7 Quinnipiac
8 Denver
9 Ohio State
10 Arizona State
11 Cornell
12t Notre Dame
12t Harvard
14 Providence
15 Bowling Green
16 Penn State
31t American International

Step one

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is American International.

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.

The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Minnesota Duluth at 1 and Notre Dame and Harvard at 12.

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:

1 St. Cloud State
2 Minnesota Duluth
3 Minnesota State
4 Massachusetts
5 Clarkson
6 Northeastern
7 Quinnipiac
8 Denver
9 Ohio State
10 Arizona State
11 Cornell
12 Notre Dame
13 Harvard
14 Providence
15 Bowling Green
16 American International

Step two

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.

No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Minnesota Duluth, Minnesota State, Massachusetts

No. 2 seeds: Clarkson, Northeastern, Quinnipiac, Denver

No. 3 seeds: Ohio State, Arizona State, Cornell, Notre Dame

No. 4 seeds: Harvard, Providence, Bowling Green, American International

Step three

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals according to geography.

No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Fargo

No. 2 Minnesota Duluth is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown

No. 3 Minnesota State is placed in the East Regional in Providence

No. 4 Massachusetts is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester

Step four

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.

No. 2 seeds

No. 8 Denver is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional

No. 7 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 2 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional

No. 6 Northeastern is placed in No. 3 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional

No. 5 Clarkson is placed in No. 4 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional

No. 3 seeds

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.

No. 9 Ohio State is placed in No. 8 Denver’s regional, the West Regional

No. 10 Arizona State is placed in No. 7 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Midwest Regional

No. 11 Cornell is placed in No. 6 Northeastern’s regional, the East Regional

No. 12 Notre Dame is placed in No. 5 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional

No. 4 seeds

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.

No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional

No. 15 Bowling Green travels to No. 2 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional

No. 14 Providence travels to No. 3 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional

No. 13 Harvard travels to No. 4 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional

The brackets as we have set them up:

West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Ohio State vs. 8 Denver

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Quinnipiac

East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none.

Now that we have solved all intra-conference matchups, let’s look at attendance.

I don’t see anything.

I will stand pat with the perfect bracket and integrity.

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.

My predicted bracket

West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Ohio State vs. 8 Denver

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Quinnipiac

East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson

Conference breakdowns

ECAC Hockey — 4
Hockey East — 3
NCHC — 3
Big Ten — 2
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
Independents — 1