For years, you have read as Jayson Moy has provided you with breakdowns on the PairWise Rankings and how, from week-to-week, that might impact how the NCAA tournament is seeded.
His bracketology has become famous, often duplicated, though rarely ever matched.
Jayson and I have decided that this season, we’re taking it to a new level.
Each week, we will alternate who will write this editorial part of Bracketology, but we’ll also be including our own unique views on how we think the NCAA should seed the tournament. Two rationales could, and often will, lead to two different final brackets each week.
We’re also going to cut to the chase. If you don’t know the criteria that the NCAA uses to select teams and, from there, seed each regional, you can read about it here. But by now, most of you understand that, so why waste your time with what you’re already familiar with as instead we’ll get to what you want to know each week.
So with that in mind, here are two separate brackets, one from me and another from Jayson, and our rationale on how each came to be. First, though, the 16 teams that, if the tournament were to begin today would qualify:
1. North Dakota
2. Cornell
3. Minnesota State
4. Denver
5. Boston College
6. Penn State
7. Massachusetts
8. Clarkson
9. Providence
10. Ohio State
11. Arizona State
12. Minnesota Duluth
13. Northeastern
14. New Hampshire
15. North Michigan
16. American International
Jim’s bracket – Jan. 29, 2020
Allentown, Pa.
1. North Dakota
2. Penn State
3. Arizona State
4. AIC
Loveland, Colo.
1. Denver
2. Boston College
3. Minnesota Duluth
4. Northeastern
Albany, N.Y.
1. Cornell
2. Massachusetts
3. Ohio State
4. Northern Michigan
Worcester, Mass.
1. Minnesota State
2. Clarkson
3. Providence
4. New Hampshire
Rationale:
I decided to attempt to keep things as simple as possible. Knowing that Denver, as host, was the number one seed in Loveland made things a little tricky, as did having to force Penn State to the Allentown regional as that host.
Once I had those in place, I positioned the remaining number one seeds. Because North Dakota is flying anywhere it does, sure there could be some flexibility, but I also decided to place them in Allentown as it technically is closest and North Dakota will help boost that attendance.
Cornell as the third overall seed goes to Albany and Minnesota State goes to Worcester.
From there, again keeping it simple, I placed the complimentary number four seeds in each region and also attempted to create the other matchup in that region that maintains bracket integrity. I was surprised that each and every first-round matchup is perfect (hint: a perfect matchup has the overall seeds adding up to 17 – i.e. 1 vs. 16, 2 vs 15, etc.).
The one place I struggle is that North Dakota, as top seed, wouldn’t have the lowest remaining seed in the second round, assuming all top seeds win. Whereas they should get the winner of Clarkson-Providence, they instead get the winner of Penn State-Arizona State. To me, this isn’t critical. It’s much more important to make sure first round matchups are perfect. Once a team reaches the second round, all eight remaining teams should be, in theory, very even.
We avoided any intra-conference first-round matchups and also are in position to have strong attendance in all four regions.
Jayson’s bracket – Jan. 29, 2020
Albany, N.Y.
1. North Dakota
2. Clarkson
3. Providence
4. American International
Loveland, Colo.
1. Denver
2. Boston College
3. Minnesota Duluth
4. Northern Michigan
Worcester, Mass.
1. Cornell
2. Massachusetts
3. Ohio State
4. New Hampshire
Allentown, Pa.
1. Minnesota State
2. Penn State
3. Arizona State
4. Northeastern
Rationale:
Jayson placed Denver and Penn St first. Because of bracket integrity, he chose to place Minnesota State in Allentown.
That leaves where to place North Dakota and Cornell. Filling out the remainder of the regional, he placed UNH in Cornell’s bracket to give Cornell the lowest Eastern team of UNH/Northeastern. Then Northeastern has to play Minnesota State due to the WCHA-WCHA matchup.
After examining the grouping of teams, he decided to put the North Dakota bracket in Albany and Cornell in Worcester due to attendance reasons.
This is where Jayson and I significantly differ in current rationale. I think that if he is using this approach, bringing the North Dakota bracket to Worcester (North Dakota, Providence and AIC will be strong draws) and the Cornell bracket to Albany (Cornell, UMass and UNH will all draw well there) would serve attendance better. But that’s why we do these exercises.
The week ahead…
If last week taught us anything, it’s the fact that it isn’t only games between ranked teams that could have significant impact on the PairWise Rankings.
Who would have seen Maine jumping from 31st to 17th in one weekend? That’s the benefit of sweeping a team around the top of the RPI.
But let’s look at some games and series that could also have some major PairWise implications:
Cornell at Quinnipiac (Friday): Quinnipiac has been a bubble team for much of the last month, hoping onto the right side and falling to the wrong side. Currently, the Bobcats are on the wrong side of the PairWise bubble, but a win against Cornell on Friday could boost their RPI significantly, maybe enough to get them into the top 12 of the PairWise by week’s end.
Boston College at Massachusetts (Friday): Many BC fans might already be thinking Beanpot, but a game with significant PairWise implications is the Eagles Friday night tilt with UMass. Two losses to Maine pushed BC from a number one seed, and another loss to UMass could drop the Eagles lower in the second-seed band. The two teams split an earlies series this season with both winning on the road.
Providence at Northeastern (Friday): A similar case can be made for Northeastern that Friday’s game against Providence means as much or more to the PairWise than Monday’s Beanpot tilt against Harvard. In fact, with Providence currently ninth and Northeastern 13th, this single game could go even further for the winner if the two are close come end of the season in a head-to-head battle. They’ve already split their first two games, so winning that series could create a positional change in the PairWise that could mean the difference in an NCAA seed or – more importantly – whether or not a team qualifies for the NCAA tournament.
Robert Morris at Arizona State (Friday & Saturday): In all honesty, Arizona State and its opponent each weekend could be listed here for the remainder of the season as any weekend can either give the Sun Devils a healthy boost with a sweep or be detrimental if they get swept. Robert Morris, currently 46th in the PairWise could have that latter effect if Arizona State can’t at least split this series. The Sun Devils might feel comfortable at 11th, but a bad weekend in sunny Tempe and they could find themselves on the outside looking in.
Minnesota Duluth at Denver (Friday & Saturday): Denver was the only top 20 team to sweep its series last weekend, and because of that is now in the band of NCAA top seeds. On the other hand, Minnesota Duluth is one bad weekend away from falling out of the top 15 in the PairWise. I don’t think two losses to Denver would take them down that far, but if teams like Northeastern, New Hampshire and Northern Michigan all perform well, a sweep in the Mile High City could be damaging.
