The topsy-turvy world of college hockey is seeing the bubble change rapidly from week to week.
There are so many games and results that are affecting what is happening at the moment.
For this week, let’s see what we have predicted as a bracket and our reasonings.
Here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of Feb. 18:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Cornell
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Denver
6 Boston College
7 Clarkson
8 Massachusetts
9 Northeastern
10 Penn State
11 Arizona State
12t Bemidji State
12t Ohio State
14 Maine
15t Western Michigan
15t UMass Lowell
15t Minnesota
30 American International
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage or number one seeds in their conference tournaments BOLDED above:
Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Minnesota
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: North Dakota
WCHA: Minnesota State
The 16 teams that are selected for the tournament are:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Cornell
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Denver
6 Boston College
7 Clarkson
8 Massachusetts
9 Northeastern
10 Penn State
11 Arizona State
12 Bemidji State
13 Ohio State
14 Maine
15 Minnesota
16 American International
My predicted bracket for this week:
Worcester
1 North Dakota
7 Clarkson
9 Northeastern
16 AIC
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
8 Massachusetts
10 Penn State
15 Minnesota
Albany
3 Cornell
6 Boston College
11 Arizona State
14 Maine
Loveland
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Denver
12 Bemidji State
13 Ohio State
The bracket lays itself out nicely as to which matchups there will be. The biggest determining factor for myself is how to place the top seeds in which bracket.
I placed Minnesota Duluth in Loveland based on bracket integrity. As Denver is the 5 seed, the integrity remains in place in this bracket.
I placed Minnesota State in Allentown because of Penn State being placed there and preserving some bracket integrity (2-15 and 7-10 are the ideal bracket integrity).
I placed Cornell in Albany because of distance.
That left North Dakota in Worcester.
From there, the only decision is where to put the Clarkson-Northeastern and Boston College-Arizona State matchups – in Worcester or in Albany.
I chose to put Clarkson-Northeastern in Worcester for attendance reasons mainly. While North Dakota fans travel well, the combined attendance of the Clarkson-Northeastern fans would bring a better balance to attendance in Worcester.
As for Jim Connelly’s bracket, our philosophies are aligned, but the end result is different.
Albany
1 North Dakota
7 Clarkson
9 Northeastern
16 AIC
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
8 Massachusetts
10 Penn State
15 Minnesota
Worcester
3 Cornell
6 Boston College
11 Arizona State
14 Maine
Loveland
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Denver
12 Bemidji State
13 Ohio State
Jim’s Philosophy:
This was actually a very straight-forward bracket. I aligned the entire bracket (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, etc.) and had just one conflict that required me to make a minor switch – No. 7 Clarkson for No. 8 Massachusetts. Once that switch was made, the biggest issue I had was assigning which bracket went to each region.
Obviously, the bracket with Minnesota State as top seed headed to Allentown as Penn State is the third-seed. Similar, the bracket with Minnesota Duluth as top seed is placed in Loveland, Colo., with Denver as the second-seed.
The other two are not as simple. I decided to place North Dakota in Albany. Certainly their fans will head anywhere, that goes without saying. But you also have AIC 90 minutes away. This is the closest regional for Clarkson and Northeastern will travel well, heading just three hours west on the Mass Pike.
That left Cornell, Maine, Boston College and Arizona State in Worcester which will create and excellent atmosphere with three of the teams relatively close and the fourth, Arizona State, with one of the largest alumni bases of any school in the nation.
I feel pretty good about this bracket if it ever were to come to fruition. Bracket integrity isn’t perfect but it is very good. Albany and Worcester might not be packed venues, but switching the two brackets won’t do much to change that.
We’re both of the same mindset this week, but it goes to show you, there are differing philosophies. Now, put six minds in the same room and you may get six different brackets.
You have to love it.
What to look for this coming week:
The bubble, that’s where the action is once again.
A nice winning streak brought Bemidji State and Maine into the picture. A losing streak has taken Providence and Michigan State out of the picture.
What is important this week on that all important bubble?
The bubble to me consists of:
12t Bemidji State (47)
12t Ohio State (47)
14 Maine (46)
15t Western Michigan (44)
15t UMass Lowell(44)
15t Minnesota (44)
18 Quinnipiac (42)
19 Providence (41)
20 Michigan (40)
Minnesota Duluth at Western Michigan – This series is big for a number of reasons. Duluth is trying to lock up a one seed. Western Michigan is looking to move off the bubble in an upwards manner. It’s safe to say that a sweep by WMU would raise the RPI of WMU and allow it to take over a comparison with at least one team (Maine).
UMass Lowell vs. Massachusetts – A weekend set that UMass Lowell has to win at least one to stay close to the bubble. Losing two games would set Lowell’s RPI back, losing possible comparisons to Minnesota and possibly Quinnipiac and/or Providence.
Minnesota at Penn State – Minnesota currently leads the Big Ten by winning percentage and a sweep here would, without a doubt, move Minnesota off the bubble and above the cut line.
Quinnipiac at Rensselaer/Union – Quinnipiac can’t afford to stumble here against two teams lower than it in the PWR. RPI ramifications should it lose at least one would be crushing. Winning from here on out might be what Quinnipiac might have to do.
Providence vs. Merrimack – A loss in one game leaves Providence with the task of sweeping Maine over the next weekends and then a good showing in the Hockey East tournament. Providence basically needs to win from here on out.
Michigan at Notre Dame – Win from here on out for Michigan. A sweep this weekend and another sweep against Minnesota would place them squarely on the bubble with little wiggle room as it heads to the Big Ten tournament.
Boston College vs. Northeastern – Not a bubble matchup, but these two teams are looking to help their fortunes and stay in front of fans closer to home in either Worcester or Albany. An important game for Hockey East standings as well.
