Tournament time is starting in college hockey and that means that the hopes and dreams of some teams will be dashed and some will continue on.
Some are seemingly safe, while others know that it is win or go home time.
Here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders through all games of March 3:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Cornell
4t Boston College
4t Minnesota Duluth
4t Denver
7 Penn State
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
10t Bemidji State
10t Ohio State
12 Arizona State
13 UMass Lowell
14 Quinnipiac
15t Maine
15t Minnesota
27 American International
Current conference leaders or No. 1 seeds in their conference tournaments BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Penn State
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: North Dakota
WCHA: Minnesota State
The 16 teams that are selected for the tournament are (I have put in Atlantic Hockey champion as a placeholder for the Atlantic Hockey champion):
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Cornell
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
6 Denver
7 Penn State
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
10 Bemidji State
11 Ohio State
12 Arizona State
13 UMass Lowell
14 Quinnipiac
15 Maine
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
My predicted bracket for this week:
Loveland
1 North Dakota
6 Denver
11 Ohio State
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
12 Arizona State
15 Maine
Albany
3 Cornell
8 Massachusetts
10 Bemidji State
13 UMass Lowell
Worcester
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
9 Clarkson
14 Quinnipiac
I laid out the bracket, without regards to geography, but solely on integrity.
I came out with this:
1 North Dakota
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
10 Bemidji State
15 Maine
3 Cornell
6 Denver
11 Ohio State
14 Quinnipiac
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
12 Arizona State
13 UMass Lowell
From there I took care of the intraconference matchups by switching Quinnipiac and UMass Lowell.
1 North Dakota
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
10 Bemidji State
15 Maine
3 Cornell
6 Denver
11 Ohio State
13 UMass Lowell
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
12 Arizona State
14 Quinnipiac
Next to look at the teams that had to go to certain brackets, i.e. Denver and Penn State. So the Minnesota State bracket is assigned to Allentown and the Cornell bracket is assigned to Loveland.
1 North Dakota
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
10 Bemidji State
15 Maine
Loveland
3 Cornell
6 Denver
11 Ohio State
13 UMass Lowell
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
12 Arizona State
14 Quinnipiac
From here, Boston College to Worcester for geography, leaving North Dakota in Albany.
Albany
1 North Dakota
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
10 Bemidji State
15 Maine
Loveland
3 Cornell
6 Denver
11 Ohio State
13 UMass Lowell
Worcester
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
12 Arizona State
14 Quinnipiac
It looks like it is fully bracket integrity – but the question becomes in regards to Cornell. Should we move Cornell to Albany? My answer is yes.
So I swap Cornell and North Dakota, including their opponents.
Loveland
1 North Dakota
6 Denver
11 Ohio State
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
10 Bemidji State
15 Maine
Albany
3 Cornell
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
13 UMass Lowell
Worcester
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
12 Arizona State
14 Quinnipiac
Attendance-wise, we have hit a jackpot in Albany with this swap.
The next question to me is how to avoid having teams that are 1-2 in the standings in the same bracket. This is definitely a consideration as many fans have stated.
That means that Minnesota State and Bemidji State, Penn State and Ohio State, Cornell and Clarkson, Boston College and Massachusetts, North Dakota and Minnesota Duluth should try to avoid being in the same bracket.
We have Minnesota St and Bemidji St, along with Cornell and Clarkson in the same bracket.
The one way I see to avoid this is to swap around Clarkson, Arizona State and Bemidji State.
Clarkson to Worcester, Bemidji State to Albany and Arizona State to Allentown.
Loveland
1 North Dakota
6 Denver
11 Ohio State
16 Atlantic Hockey Champion
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
12 Arizona State
15 Maine
Albany
3 Cornell
8 Massachusetts
10 Bemidji State
13 UMass Lowell
Worcester
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
9 Clarkson
14 Quinnipiac
Now we have a nice balance with attendance in pretty good shape in all regionals.
As for Jim Connelly’s bracket, our philosophies are aligned, but the end result is different. As you can see, I took it one step further…
Loveland
1 North Dakota
6 Denver
11 Ohio State
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
10 Bemidji State
15 Maine
Albany
3 Cornell
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
13 UMass Lowell
Worcester
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota Duluth
12 Arizona State
14 Quinnipiac
Here is Jim’s philosophy:
I don’t want to call this week’s bracket “easy”, because it really isn’t. But due to a couple of factors, it was pretty simple where I had to place every team.
The No. 1 factor again is where to place North Dakota. To me, it makes no sense to send the Fighting Hawks to Albany or Worcester when you can place them on a short flight to Denver and bus to Loveland. The problem, with Denver having to also be in that region, the number one overall seed could have to face the #6 seed in round two. Sure, that’s not a big deal, but unless I moved North Dakota to the east, it seems unavoidable.
Basically, all of the top seeds are at their closest regional in seed order (yes, Loveland is close to Minnesota State than Allentown, but North Dakota gets first dibs!)
There were a few first-round matchups that had to be avoided and thus disrupted bracket integrity (UMass Lowell couldn’t face Boston College; Quinnipiac couldn’t face Cornell – that would an easy swap; Ohio State couldn’t go to Allentown because of Penn State, so swapping them with Bemidji State works as well).
I have little to no concerns about attendance in any region at this point. Sure, they won’t all sell out, but right now we’ve pretty much maximized ticket sales.
What to look for this coming week:
The bubble, that’s where the action is once again. The playoffs provide a way to measure up. It really is win or go home for a lot of teams.
Playoff series that have significant impact.
Notre Dame at Minnesota – To call this series huge is an understatement. We saw how precarious Minnesota’s spot was as it lost and lost a shootout to fall right out of the Top 15. Sitting in a tie for 15th right now, a series loss to Notre Dame and it’s go home for Minnesota. If the Gophers make it past this weekend, there is still work to be done in the Big Ten Semifinal. Two wins by Notre Dame will put it in position to break into the Top 15, but it still needs to win the Semifinal, and maybe even win the whole thing.
Michigan State at Michigan – There was a moment, February 5, when Michigan State was leading the Big Ten in winning percentage. Since then a 2-5-1 mark has Michigan State in a win it all scenario. Michigan is sitting in a tie for 17, and realistically, also in a win it all scenario.
Wisconsin at Ohio State – Wisconsin is in win it all mode, while Ohio State, tied for 10, is almost a lock for the tournament. But two wins would solidify that position.
Lake Superior State at Bemidji State – A great run by Bemidji State, 12-2-2, two 3-on-3 OT wins, have almost cemented the Beavers’ spot in the tournament. Getting through this weekend should cement the position.
Alaska Anchorage at Minnesota State – Minnesota State is in, and almost locked into a No. 1 seed. Two wins and it will be.
All ECAC teams in action this weekend are in win it all situations, as are Atlantic Hockey teams.
For those still in the regular season, UMass Lowell, Maine and Northeastern are squarely on the bubble. UMass Lowell and Maine will be in the Hockey East playoffs, but Northeastern can still not qualify.
In the NCHC, North Dakota, Minnesota Duluth and Denver have sewn up spots in the tournament. All others need to continue winning. Western Michigan, at 19, has to jump six PWR comparisons to get into the top 15. That’s a lot to jump, so it is win or go home.
