With the conference tournaments in full swing, there are already teams that have finished their seasons while some continue to hold hope that they will automatically go or be selected to be in the NCAA tournament.
Let’s get to it.
Here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the highest seeds of all the conference tournaments through all games of March 10:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Cornell
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Denver
6 Boston College
7 Penn State
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
10 Ohio State
11 UMass Lowell
12t Bemidji State
12t Arizona State
14 Michigan
15 Maine
16 Quinnipiac
26 American International
Highest seeds in their conference tournaments BOLDED Above:
Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Penn State
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: North Dakota
WCHA: Minnesota State
The 16 teams that are selected for the tournament are (I have put in Atlantic Hockey champion as a placeholder for the Atlantic Hockey champion):
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Cornell
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Denver
6 Boston College
7 Penn State
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
10 Ohio State
11 UMass Lowell
12 Bemidji State
13 Arizona State
14 Michigan
15 Maine
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
My predicted bracket for this week:
Worcester
1 North Dakota
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
11 UMass Lowell
14 Michigan
Albany
3 Cornell
6 Boston College
10 Ohio State
15 Maine
Loveland
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Denver
12 Bemidji State
13 Arizona State
Like I did last week, I laid out the bracket, without regards to geography, but solely on integrity. Then I swapped out the intraconference matchups of Penn State/Ohio State and Boston College/UMass Lowell.
After that, I assigned the sites for each bracket based on Denver and Penn State, then Cornell to the closest regional and the remaining one to North Dakota.
I made one change for attendance purposes, and that was switching Michigan and Maine.
I like this bracket, but there are those that might want to swap Massachusetts/Clarkson to Albany and Boston College/Ohio State to Worcester. I am not going to go that way, I think the bracket is fine this way.
As for Jim Connelly’s bracket, our philosophies are aligned, but the end result is different. As you can see, I took it one step further…
Worcester
1 North Dakota
8 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson
16 Atlantic Hockey champion
Allentown
2 Minnesota State
7 Penn State
11 UMass Lowell
15 Maine
Albany
3 Cornell
6 Boston College
10 Ohio State
14 Michigan
Loveland
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Denver
12 Bemidji State
13 Arizona State
Here is Jim’s philosophy:
My philosophy was to lay out as much as I could factoring in the host teams. Sure I tried to keep teams as close to home as possible but placing North Dakota in Worcester, more than anything, helped maintain bracket integrity. I’m not sure the committee will ever follow this route.
My one temptation that I avoided was moving Clarkson from Worcester to Albany and, thus, sending Ohio State to Worcester. The main reason I did was how much that would disturb first-round bracket integrity.
Even if the committee doesn’t think this way, I think the number one priority should be making sure teams that should play in the first round, do. Right now I like my brackets for maintaining integrity and doing a decent job on attendance.
What to look for this coming week:
The bubble, that’s where the action is once again. Win or go home is real evident this week.
The biggest loser this week was Quinnipiac – and it didn’t even play. The Bobcats dropped to 16 with out playing a single game, passed by Michigan and Maine.
Minnesota also dropped out after a 2-1 series win over Notre Dame.
Let’s look at the playoff series this week.
Atlantic Hockey
Everyone needs to win to get in. Sacred Heart at 23 is the closest to the bubble, but making up eight PWR wins is a lot for anyone to do with so few games left.
Big Ten
Minnesota at Penn State – Based on the fact that Minnesota dropped 3 spots while splitting a series, this is as close to must-win as possible. While the bubble is still there, and who knows what happens to Michigan, Maine, Quinnipiac and Western Michigan, but realistically the only way is to win. Penn State is already in the tournament.
Michigan at Ohio State – A sweep of Michigan State moved Michigan to 14. That means that a win over Ohio State would put the odds more in Michigan’s favor – no matter whom it plays next week. Ohio State is more than likely in the tournament, but I am sure there will be some scenarios where it doesn’t get in.
ECAC
Some teams need to win to get in – Rensselaer, Harvard, Colgate, Yale and Princeton. Cornell and Clarkson are in. That leaves:
Yale at Quinnipiac – The Bobcats dropped out while idle last week. Needless to say, anything but two wins this weekend will not suffice. Even if the Bobcats lose two this weekend, there might be a shot. A 2-1 series win would also leave hope as it would play again next week.
Hockey East
Boston University, Providence and Connecticut all need to win to get in.
Boston College, Massachusetts and UMass Lowell seem to have spots locked up, though Lowell will have scenarios where it can not get in.
Maine and Northeastern are truly on the bubble. It’s quite plain and simple – neither can go 0-2 this weekend.
NCHC
North Dakota, Minnesota Duluth, Denver are all in.
Colorado College, Miami, Omaha and St. Cloud all need to win to get in.
Western Michigan is flailing and needs to get through to next weekend and get some help to move up on the bubble. It will be tough as I think it is closer to win or don’t get in.
WCHA
Bowling Green and Michigan Tech need to win to get in.
Minnesota State is in.
Bemidji State stumbled a bit going 2-1 in it’s quarterfinal series, but a win would keep it solid for a spot. A loss and then we have to wait and see.
Independents
Let’s not forget about Arizona State. It would appear the Sun Devils are safe at the moment. But there will be scenarios where they can’t get in.
