We’re inching ever so close to Selection Sunday so let’s take another look at Bracketology.
Right now, there are just nine college hockey games remaining after the NCHC (North Dakota) and Big Ten (Minnesota) crowned their champions. Hockey East has whittled their field to two teams, ECAC is down to three and WCHA and AHA still have their final four to be played.
If you haven’t read Bracketology to date, read last week’s to familiarize yourself with the NCAA’s memo on how the field will be selected.
To cut down to the length, Jayson and Jim are simply going to walk through our process and develop our current NCAA regional field, beginning this week with Jayson:
Jayson: Let’s take a look at who I think is in the field already. These are my locks. This week, I have 12 of them.
AIC
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Quinnipiac
Boston College
Massachusetts
North Dakota
St. Cloud State
Minnesota Duluth
Minnesota State
Bemidji State
Let me skip ahead and look at the teams that need to win its conference tournament in order to get in. Some of these teams are also on the bubble.
Army
Niagara
Canisius
St Lawrence
Colgate
UMass Lowell
Lake Superior State
Northern Michigan
If any of these teams win its tournament, they will grab the autobid and one of the four bubble spots available – there are four possible autobids available here.
Now let’s look at the true bubble teams. I count nine of them.
Army West Point
Notre Dame
Boston University
Providence
Connecticut
Denver
Omaha
Bowling Green
Lake Superior State
The only teams left playing are Army and Lake Superior – win and in. Simple for it. But, a loss in the semifinal and I find it hard for Army to get in, while Lake Superior still has a chance.
I want to apply some numbers to what I am looking at here. Let’s take a look at some of the records of these teams against locks or bubble teams that are above them in seedings or standings.
Notre Dame (0-3-1 vs Wisconsin, 2-2 vs Minnesota, 2-2 vs Michigan)
Omaha (2-4-0 vs North Dakota, 1-1 vs SCSU, 0-1-1 vs UMD)
Denver (2-5 vs NoDak, 0-2 vs SCSU, 0-2 vs UMD)
LSSU (0-2 vs Minnesota State, 1-2-1 vs Bemidji (WCHA Semi coming), 2-0 vs BG)
Bowling Green (0-2 vs Minnesota State, 1-3 vs Bemidji St, 0-2 vs LSSU)
BU (1-1 vs BC, 2-0 vs UMass)
UConn (1-2-1 vs BC, 0-1 vs BU, 0-2-1 vs UMass, 2-2 vs Prov)
Providence (0-2 vs BC, 0-2-2 vs UMass, 1-1 vs BU, 2-2 vs UConn)
Army (1-3 vs AIC)
Let me eliminate some teams to start.
Bowling Green has a record of 1-7-0 against Minnesota State, Bemidji State and Lake Superior.
Connecticut has a record of 1-5-2 against Boston College, Boston University and Massachusetts.
Providence has a record of 1-5-2 against Boston College, Boston University and Massachusetts.
Army is 1-3 against AIC.
All other teams, except Lake Superior, have at least two wins against the top two teams in the conference.
Lake Superior has one win against Bemidji State, but is still playing. Thus, I leave them on the bubble.
I would eliminate those four at this time.
That leaves five teams:
Notre Dame
Boston University
Denver
Omaha
Lake Superior State
For the four spots that are left.
How about their records versus the top teams?
Notre Dame (0-3-1 vs Wisconsin, 2-2 vs Minnesota, 2-2 vs Michigan)
Boston University (1-1 vs BC, 2-0 vs UMass)
Denver (2-5 vs North Dakota, 0-2 vs SCSU, 0-2 vs UMD)
Omaha (2-4-0 vs North Dakota, 1-1 vs SCSU, 0-1-1 vs UMD)
Lake Superior (0-2 vs Minnesota State, 1-2-1 vs Bemidji (with WCHA Semi to go))
Right off the bat I will call Boston University, with a record of 3-1-0 against BC and UMass, at the top of this list.
That leaves three spots.
Denver and Omaha are the next two teams on my list, as both have two wins over North Dakota, Omaha with a win over St. Cloud and a tie against UMD, but a loss to Denver in the NCHC Quarterfinals. That gives Omaha the edge over Denver.
That leaves one spot.
Neither Notre Dame or Lake Superior have a win over the top team in the conference.
But, Lake Superior is still playing. A win over Bemidji State will give them a 2-2-1 record against them, matching Notre Dame’s 2-2 against Minnesota. But then, it gives them a chance to take on Minnesota State in the Championship.
Notre Dame though has a 2-2 record against Michigan, who I have as in the tournament while Lake Superior doesn’t have any more games against teams that will be in the tournament.
So, I have to give the slight edge here, as of today, to Notre Dame.
My ranking of the five bubble teams:
Boston University
Denver
Omaha
Notre Dame
Lake Superior State
If there are no surprises from autobids, my 16 teams are:
AIC
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Quinnipiac
Boston College
Massachusetts
North Dakota
St. Cloud State
Minnesota Duluth
Minnesota State
Bemidji State
Boston University
Omaha
Denver
Notre Dame
Let’s rank the teams.
My top four teams are:
North Dakota
Boston College
Minnesota State
Minnesota
My second band includes:
Wisconsin
St. Cloud State
Quinnipiac
Minnesota Duluth
My third band includes:
Michigan
Massachusetts
Bemidji State
Boston University
My fourth band includes:
Omaha
Denver
Notre Dame
AIC
Let’s bracket.
Fargo – North Dakota
Bridgeport – Boston College
Albany – Minnesota
Loveland – Minnesota State
Second Band:
Fargo – Wisconsin
Bridgeport – Quinnipiac
Albany – St. Cloud State
Loveland – Minnesota Duluth
Third Band:
Fargo – Bemidji State
Bridgeport – Boston University
Albany – Massachusetts
Loveland – Michigan
Fourth Band
Fargo – Notre Dame
Bridgeport – AIC
Albany – Omaha
Loveland – Denver
My brackets:
Fargo
Notre Dame vs North Dakota
Bemidji State vs Wisconsin
Albany
Omaha vs. Minnesota
Massachusetts vs. St. Cloud State
Bridgeport
AIC vs. Boston College
Boston University vs. Quinnipiac
Loveland
Denver vs. Minnesota State
Michigan vs. Minnesota Duluth
I would only make one change in this bracket and that is to put Quinnipiac in Albany, swapping them with St Cloud State. This is for potential attendance purposes and because the ECAC is hosting in Albany.
Fargo
Notre Dame vs North Dakota
Bemidji State vs Wisconsin
Albany
Omaha vs. Minnesota
Massachusetts vs. Quinnipiac
Bridgeport
AIC vs. Boston College
Boston University vs. St Cloud
Loveland
Denver vs. Minnesota State
Michigan vs. Minnesota Duluth
Jim: I am going to take a slightly different approach from Jayson. I, too, will give you 12 locks. Teams that, in my opinion, can’t be bumped regardless of the four remaining league tournament champions.
My 12 locks:
North Dakota
Boston College
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Minnesota State
St. Cloud State
Massachusetts
Minnesota Duluth
Quinnipiac
Michigan
American International
Bemidji State
I, too, will develop a bubble. But I’m going to try to build my bubble based on my perceived relative strength of each league. I’ll explain why I am doing this.
When the NCAA committee gets together, they are going to have to somehow find ways to rank teams and I believe that one of the first thing they will do is rank the conferences based on overall strength given the limited about of non-conference play.
I’ll keep mine the same from past Bracketology columns:
Tier I: NCHC
Tier II: Hockey East, Big Ten
Tier III: ECAC
Tier IV: AHA, WCHA
I’m going to attempt to balance the field based on these perceived rankings.
So, my bubble teams are:
Tier I: Omaha, Denver
Tier II: Boston University, Providence, Connecticut, Notre Dame
Tier III: None
Tier IV: Army, Lake Superior, Bowling Green
Thus, for me, I want to prioritize balancing the number of teams in the top tiers as I fill my final four bubble teams.
Thus, without even doing much math, I’m inserting Omaha and Boston University into the field based on their overall winning percentage.
Those two feel easy for me and gives me a conference allocation of spots of:
NCHC: 4
Hockey East, Big Ten: 3
ECAC: 1 (of three eligible teams)
WCHA: 2
AHA: 1
I still have to fill two more slots, and have Denver, Providence, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Army, Lake Superior and Bowling Green to fill these slots.
Right now, I’m going to use the “eye test,” or my version of it, to take two teams out. I’m removing Denver because, despite a strong conference, a 10-13-1 mark simply isn’t strong enough for me. Wins still matter and despite a strong team, Denver’s slow start this season hurt. I’m also eliminating Bowling Green. The team did have a couple of quality wins at Quinnipiac, but went 1-7 in games against the top of the WCHA.
That leaves me with Providence, UConn, Notre Dame, Army and Lake Superior. Five teams for two spots.
With Hockey East being a Tier II conference, a fourth team would give that conference 36.4% of its teams in the tournament. NCHC already has 50%. Big Ten already has 37.5%. So I think that’s a fair balance. The top tier conference has 50% participation and the second tier conferences have 36.4% and 37.5% respectively.
My question is: which of these Hockey East teams – UConn and Providence – should be selected? Here is where the math gets tricky.
When you look at the PairWise, something that the NCAA has said they will use ONLY to compare teams within their own conference, Providence has slipped just behind UConn (by .0001 in the RPI). That’s pretty close so you have to worry about the subjectivity of the committee. Would they prioritize the fact that Providence beat UConn in the Hockey East tournament? Difficult to tell.
For my purposes, though, I’m going with the straight PairWise and picking UConn.
So, who is my final team? Well, again, subjectivity is coming into play. I’m picking Lake Superior because they are in a conference with four teams that are under consideration in my opinion. Might not be sound reasoning. But it creates the following NCAA field, by seeding bands:
First Band:
North Dakota
Boston College
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Second Band:
Minnesota State
St. Cloud State
Massachusetts
Minnesota Duluth
Third Band:
Quinnipiac
Michigan
American International
Bemidji State
Fourth Band:
Boston University
Omaha
Connecticut
Lake Superior
I’m laying out my regionals as follows:
Fargo:
North Dakota vs. Lake Superior
St. Cloud State vs. Bemidji State
Loveland:
Minnesota vs. Boston University
Minnesota Duluth vs. Michigan
Bridgeport:
Wisconsin vs. Connecticut
Minnesota State vs. AIC
Albany:
Boston College vs. Omaha
UMass vs. Quinnipiac
Ideally, I’d keep all six eastern teams in the east regions, but with Boston College a number one seed and both Boston University and UConn fourth seeds, that’s not possible.
There is very little uniformity to both Jayson and Jim’s brackets. Which shows you the challenge the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee will have on Sunday.
So here are this week’s brackets:
Jayson:
Fargo
Notre Dame vs North Dakota
Bemidji State vs Wisconsin
Albany
Omaha vs. Minnesota
Massachusetts vs. Quinnipiac
Bridgeport
AIC vs. Boston College
Boston University vs. St Cloud
Loveland
Denver vs. Minnesota State
Michigan vs. Minnesota Duluth
Jim:
Fargo:
North Dakota vs. Lake Superior
St. Cloud State vs. Bemidji State
Albany
Boston College vs. Omaha
UMass vs. Quinnipiac
Bridgeport
Wisconsin vs. Connecticut
Minnesota State vs. AIC
Loveland
Minnesota vs. Boston University
Minnesota Duluth vs. Michigan
