Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Jim: Hello again, Paula.
Here we are in a week that I feel like takes place every single season. After week after week of upsets and parity in the college hockey world, we end up with a weekend where the top college hockey teams basically hold serve. Among the top 20 teams in last week’s poll, only St. Cloud State (swept by Denver), Omaha and North Dakota (two ranked teams that split) and Cornell dropped games.
The concern for me of that bunch is Cornell. The Big Red dominated before head coach Mike Schafer, a legend in the coaching ranks, fell ill first with COVID and then heart problems. Ben Syer, a long-time assistant at both Cornell and other schools, has been running the team. There is no doubt in my mind that Syer is qualified, but Cornell is now 1-3-3 in its last seven.
I wonder when a team has a personality as large as Mike Schafer, does his absence impact the locker room?
Paula: Jimmy, I have to think that what Schafer is going through has impacted his team, regardless of how well Syer is running things. Every coaching change for any team necessitates adjustments. Hypothetically, Syer could do everything that Schafer prescribes – down to shifts, plays, strategies – and it’s still not Schafer behind the bench. We all know that he’s a larger-than-life kind of guy, and the energy that he brings to the program is unique.
There’s no question that his absence has an impact in intangible ways in the locker room, in practice, in games.
Additionally, what Schafer is going through has an emotional impact on everyone in the Cornell hockey program and right now, emotional reserves are low for a lot of people.
But look at the stretch during which the Big Red have gone 1-3-3. They’re still 7-1-3 at home this season, with that single home loss coming in a one-goal decision against Princeton at the start of this span. Since Jan. 8, they beat Quinnipiac at home in OT, eked out three home ties (but gave up the extra point to the visitors in each game) and have a pair of one-goal road losses to Brown and Colgate.
Cornell looks to me like a team doing all it can to hold on during a rough spell and the remainder of their schedule is challenging. Four out of their six final games are on the road, where the Big Red have a .500 record, and one of those games is against Quinnipiac.
Cornell isn’t the only team dealing with crucial absences as the regular season winds down. I count nine NCAA teams have sent players to China with the U.S. Olympic team. Big Ten fans are talking about how this will affect Michigan and Minnesota, for obvious reasons.
How do you see the absences impacting the teams represented in Beijing?
Jim: As I write this, I’m sitting at the TD Garden in Boston watching the Beanpot where seven players are missing to various Olympic teams. Does it impact the games? Certainly. But isn’t this also where a “next-man-up” mentality has to creep into locker rooms? If teams sit there and think about a “woe is me” mentality, you’re going to be on the losing end when the day finishes.
I look at Northeastern, though, which lost Devon Levi to the Canadian Olympic team two weeks ago. TJ Semptimphelter registered 30 saves in a loss to UMass Lowell and then earned a 5-4 victory against Vermont making 29 saves on Friday. BU’s Drew Commesso, who will play for Team USA, was replaced by Vinny Duplessis, who earned a 27-save shutout against Maine on Friday.
It’s not impossible to believe that the next level of players can be as good – sometimes even better than they player who they replace. Isn’t that part of sports? Ask Tom Brady. Ask Cal Ripken. Sometimes the absence of one of the best can yield results one would never imagine.
Paula: Two Big Ten goaltenders come to mind when I think of players stepping rising to a particular occasion, although the circumstances of their ascensions couldn’t be more different.
When Jack LaFontaine made a sudden departure from Minnesota Jan. 9, the Golden Gophers had been riding his performance all season and were obvious contenders for the Big Ten conference title. Junior Justen Close spent two seasons as LaFontaine’s backup and one complete game to his credit – a win Jan. 2 against St. Thomas – when he became the Minnesota starter Jan. 14. Since then, he’s gone 5-3-0 and the Gophers are still in the hunt for a title with six games remaining. With a .914 save percentage and 2.01 goals-against average, Close is doing his part. The Gophers are five points behind first-place Ohio State, a team they play on the road this weekend.
The other goalie is Ohio State freshman Jakub Dobeš, who replaced three-year starter Tommy Nappier. The Buckeyes were picked in preseason to finish in last place, but the steady play of Dobeš has helped this surprising Ohio State team remain competitive all season long.
And while one player can make a difference, Dobeš isn’t the only player to make the most of a new opportunity in Columbus. Senior forward Jake Wise, who had three goals in 50 games in three seasons with Boston University, is second on the OSU squad in goals with 10. It doesn’t hurt that freshman forward Georgii Merkulov is making the most of his first year in college, leading all rookies nationally in goals per game with 18 in 29 contests.
To your bigger point, this is the time of the year when we expect programs as well as individuals to show what they’re made of. Last weekend, we saw nearly all of the top teams in the nation take care of business and control what they could. I’m not surprised to see this – as you pointed out, we tend to see it at about this time each year – and I won’t be surprised to hear a few unfamiliar players make some noise in the coming weeks.
It is a big part of sports that players succeed when given the opportunity. Additionally, what we’ll see as the regular season winds down are players who can thrive partly because of the culture in which they’re playing. Good coaching staffs know how to put players in positions to succeed.
Jim: I echo all of the sentiments about players playing in big games. As the season rolls longer, so often you see experience win out, mostly because the best players have played in difficult situations in the past. Sure, special teams and goaltending wins, but experience to me is often what puts a team over the top.
Then we go back to Ohio State. The Buckeyes were predicted to finish last in the Big Ten, but their young players have performed above expectations and right now the Buckeyes are a team that is about as close as possible to clinching an NCAA tournament berth.
Looking at the PairWise, what other teams can you look at that, at this point late in the season, surprise you on their position – good or bad?
Paula: There are some mighty good teams right below Ohio State in the PairWise that are not in control of their own NCAA berth destinies right now.
Tied at No. 12, both North Dakota and Notre Dame may be victims of the strength of their respective conferences rather than benefitting from them. The Fighting Hawks and the Fighting Irish are both strong, competitive, and mostly consistent teams, each playing in conferences that are very competitive nearly top to bottom.
The weirdness of North Dakota sitting in second place in the NCHC while St. Cloud is in sixth in that conference with a .452 league win percentage yet an RPI that gives the Huskies the PWR edge.
Look at the teams that are Nos. 14 through 20 in the PWR: UMass Lowell, Merrimack, Providence, Northeastern, Clarkson, BU and AIC. Five Hockey East teams, including Lowell, the league’s current leader. Boston University is 8-1-0 in the second half. Merrimack is 8-2-0 in the second half. That Massachusetts is the only Hockey East team in the NCAA tournament right now is stunning, quite frankly.
The drop-off after that has some really competitive teams as well, like No. 21 Omaha – with wins this season over North Dakota, Minnesota Duluth, Western Michigan and St. Cloud – and the two teams tied for different reasons at No. 24, Harvard and Cornell.
As we’ve seen some of the top teams rewarded for their consistency recently, I think we may see some of the teams on the PairWise bubble – and even teams much further down in the rankings – pull out a few upsets come conference playoff time.
Who knows? Maybe Northern Michigan will make some magic and send four teams from the Mitten to the tournament.
I love surprise endings.
