We’re three weeks into Braceketology and we’re already seeing some conference tournament results that are having lasting impact.
Last weekend, it was Ohio State losing its series in three games to Penn State. The Buckeyes have no games remaining to change their PairWise possibilities, and right now OSU sits right on the tournament bubble – 15th – given that whatever team wins Atlantic Hockey will take the 16th seed.
Right now, the Buckeyes become cheerleaders and they have to root for frontrunners, particularly in Hockey East, the ECAC and the CCHA. If any team currently not in the top 15 of the PairWise wins any of these conference titles, Ohio State’s chances of qualifying become slim to none.
The fact that Penn State remains alive in the Big Ten playoffs could have a nice, positive impact on the NCAA tournament. Should the Nittany Lions win their next two games and earn the B1G autobid, they would be assigned to Allentown as regional host and likely save the attendance for the region. Right now, that appears a destination that could feel pretty empty.
Here are the brackets both I and Jayson put forward this week with our approach on how we get there:
Jim’s Bracket & Approach
I’ll start with the basics – seeding the tournament 1 through 16 using bracket integrity:
Minnesota State
Quinnipiac
Notre Dame
AIC
Michigan
St. Cloud State
Michigan Tech
Ohio State
Denver
North Dakota
Minnesota Duluth
Ohio State
Minnesota
Western Michigan
Massachusetts
UMass Lowell
Remember, that in each region, the top team plays the bottom and the middle teams play one another. Thus, we have two conflicts with Michigan and Ohio State, two B1G teams, set to meet along with North Dakota and Minnesota Duluth set to play from the NCHC.
Let’s address the second first. I feel that switching Quinnipiac and North Dakota makes sense, particularly when I look at where I geographically align each region.
Similarly, I’d like to get Northeastern our of Denver’s region as we know the Pioneers have to play in Loveland. With so few eastern teams in this field, I’d prefer to have Northeastern in either Worcester or Albany. So switching Northeastern and Ohio State makes sense to me.
Thus we end up with four brackets, and I’ll assign my regions at this point.
Allentown
1. Minnesota State
2. North Dakota
3. Notre Dame
4. AIC
Albany
1. Michigan
2. St. Cloud State
3. Michigan Tech
4. Northeastern
Loveland
1. Denver
2. Quinnipiac
3. Minnesota Duluth
4. Ohio State
Worcester
1. Minnesota
2. Western Michigan
3. Massachusetts
4. UMass Lowell
You’ll ask why I assigned each region as I did?
Worcester will have to local teams in UMass and UMass Lowell. Loveland of course has its host Denver. Allentown, a region where I have massive concerns about attendance, gets the greatest traveling fan base in North Dakota. And, while Albany is a concern, you’ll have Michigan, which has a solid national fan base and Northeastern, a school that is less than three hours away.
We’ve mentioned this in the past. I don’t find the regional locations this year ideal in terms of attendance. But with this bracket, I see a pretty solid fan base in most places.
Now if Penn State wins the Big Ten…
Jayson’s Bracket & Approach
Once again this week, let me start out by putting everyone into bracket integrity. That means:
1 Minnesota State
8 Quinnipiac
9 Notre Dame
16 AIC
2 Michigan
7 St. Cloud State
10 Michigan Tech
15 Ohio State
3 Denver
6 North Dakota
11 Minnesota Duluth
14 Northeastern
4 Minnesota
5 Western Michigan
12 Massachusetts
13 UMass Lowell
Now I will check for intra-conference matchups. I have Michigan-Ohio State and North Dakota-Minnesota-Duluth.
First we swap Ohio State and Northeastern.
We have three NCHC teams in the second bands. So we can only move Minnesota-Duluth to play Quinnipiac. Therefore we swap Minnesota-Duluth and Notre Dame.
Therefore our brackets are now:
1 Minnesota State
8 Quinnipiac
11 Minnesota Duluth
16 AIC
2 Michigan
7 St. Cloud State
10 Michigan Tech
14 Northeastern
3 Denver
6 North Dakota
9 Notre Dame
15 Ohio State
4 Minnesota
5 Western Michigan
12 Massachusetts
13 UMass Lowell
Are there any other tweaks I can make? I want to align a little bit more closely to bracket integrity in the second and third bands. If I swap Michigan Tech and Notre Dame, then I go from 7-10 and 6-9 to 7-9 and 6-10. This aligns more with bracket integrity to me in that band.
So I make that swap.
1 Minnesota State
8 Quinnipiac
11 Minnesota Duluth
16 AIC
2 Michigan
7 St. Cloud State
9 Notre Dame
14 Northeastern
3 Denver
6 North Dakota
10 Michigan Tech
15 Ohio State
4 Minnesota
5 Western Michigan
12 Massachusetts
13 UMass Lowell
Now I will start placing the brackets into regionals.
Loveland – Denver bracket because Denver is the host.
I want to place the Minnesota State bracket in Albany because of Quinnipiac and AIC.
I want to place the Minnesota bracket in Worcester because of the two Hockey East teams.
That leaves the Michigan bracket in Allentown, which has two Big Ten teams.
Albany
1. Minnesota State
2. Quinnipiac
3. Minnesota Duluth
4. AIC
Allentown
1. Michigan
2. St. Cloud State
3. Notre Dame
4. Northeastern
Loveland
1. Denver
2. North Dakota
3. Michigan Tech
4. Ohio State
Worcester
1. Minnesota
2. Western Michigan
3. Massachusetts
4. UMass Lowell
