It’s down to the final weekend of the season and the national championship is on the line. Three of the top four seeds survived the quarterfinal round to advance to Lake Placid where east and west-based semifinals shape up for some exciting hockey to settle the season on the ice. In the battle between the two USCHO writers, the east has a slim lead over the west with both writers falling short on the pick for a win by UNE over Utica. So, after the quarterfinal round it is Tim at 6-2 and Brian at 5-3. Another two games this Friday with the Frozen Four championship at stake on Saturday night. Here are this week’s analysis and picks for the semifinals:
Friday, March 25, 2022
NCAA Semifinals
University of New England (8) v. Geneseo (3)
TC – It has been awhile since these two teams faced each other (2018) and the contest produced 14 goals in a 9-5 UNE win over Geneseo in the Times-Argus Tournament at Norwich. Both teams certainly have a reputation for their offensive pedigree, but they are both in Lake Placid for their team defense, goaltending and opportunistic scoring. Both teams play a disciplined style and can get up and down the ice with speed which will help on the Olympic-size sheet. This one is going to come down to one-on-one puck battles and Geneseo wins the last one leading to an overtime winner – Geneseo, 2-1
BL – University of New England (23-3-1) vs. Geneseo (23-3-1)
New England is the underdog of this national semifinal round and is here in the Frozen Four for the first time in program history. That is if you can call a team with 23 wins and the No. 8 ranking an underdog. It is worth noting, though, that the Nor’easters are the only team in the Frozen Four not ranked in the top five.
Still, they have what it takes to get the job done. New England is coming off a huge shutout win on the road over Utica over the weekend and hope to carry that momentum into Friday’s showdown with Geneseo. It was their 13th consecutive win. Playing in front of nearly 4,000 fans the way they did against Utica shows that the Nor’easters aren’t going to be rattled easily.
The Knights sit in third in the nation entering this national semifinal. They are here for the fourth time in program history and the first time since 2018.
Justin Cmunt was the hero in a 3-2 quarterfinal win over Babson, scoring a goal and dishing out an assist. He has 18 goals on the year and will be key to success in this matchup. The Knights have won their last five games, holding three of those opponents to one goal. They’ve scored six or more goals three times during that stretch and appear ready for this moment.
Geneseo and New England last played in a mid-season tournament during the 2017-18 season and the Nor’easters prevailed 9-5. Could this game be just as wild? Perhaps. But a low-scoring affair is the more likely scenario. And I think I’ll roll the dice on an upset. New England, 3-2
Augsburg (4) v. Adrian (1)
TC – The Bulldogs unloaded on Hobart last weekend scoring seven goals and cruising to a 7-4 quarterfinal win. Adrian also had success against Augsburg with a 5-2 home win over the Auggies to close out the calendar year. In that game Adrian scored three power play goals and one goal shorthanded to dispatch the Auggies. Not expecting much special teams play in this one and Adrian showed last week they don’t need the man-advantage to light up the scoreboard. Closer game here with an empty-net goal providing some late insurance for the nation’s No. 1 team – Adrian, 5-3
BL – Augsburg (24-4-0) vs. Adrian (29-1-0)
For most of the season Adrian has been the No. 1 team in the nation in the DCU/NCAA Division III men’s poll, and for good reason. The Bulldogs skate into Lake Placid riding a 29-game winning streak and have as balanced of an attack as anyone left in this tournament. They get it done on defense as well.
Augsburg is no pushover either.
The Auggies have looked impressive on both ends of the ice as well, looking the part of a top five team nationally as they head into their first Frozen Four since 1998.
At one point you had to wonder if Augsburg could get here after it dropped the MIAC championship game to St. Olaf. But the Auggies responded, using the first-round bye to their advantage and notching an impressive win over St. Norbert in the quarterfinal round.
This will be the second time this season these two teams have played. Adrian won the first meeting 5-2 on the second to last day of 2021. But that result doesn’t carry much weight now as both teams are much different than they were a few months ago. It’s a one-game situation and anything is possible.
Keep an eye on the goaltending matchup in this one. Adrian’s Cameron Gray and Augsburg’s Samuel Vyletelka are two of the best in college hockey, and the goaltender that gets the job done here is going to go a long way in setting his team up for success and a spot in the national final.
It won’t surprise me if Augsburg wins, but I just feel like Adrian has been the team to beat all season and I don’t see that changing this weekend. Adrian, 4-2
So, Brian and I are going with Adrian but differ on the east matchup between UNE and Geneseo in close game action to set-up the national championship game on Saturday. Will reset with championship pick after Friday’s dramatic semifinal games are complete. Hard enough to get to this point but even harder to win it all – “Drop the Puck!”
