Gambling, indeed, is a fickle beast.
Proof positive was last Friday’s upset by Miami (+120) on the road of UMass Lowell. The River Hawks dominated the game in many aspects – shot attempts, shots on goal, face-offs – but Miami jumped to a 3-0 lead and walked away with what was really the only major upset on the slate of five that USCHO columnists picked.
Denver, Minnesota, Quinnipiac and Ohio State all took care of business, some as slight favorites. And a five-team parlay on a $100 bet paid $1655.24. Better yet, if you took the majority favorite on each game (Wisconsin/Ohio State was a split, so taking OSU as favorite), you’d be up three units.
Which brings another explanation of betting units. Most prognosticators like to talk in units rather than actual money. For to me or you, a $100 bet might be too expensive, but a $10 wager would be considered reasonable. Thus, think of your bets in units that you can afford (if you’re gambling).
Thus, if you followed our staff’s favorite on each game, you would have won four bets and lost one, so you would be ahead three units (yes, there are money lines involved, so this isn’t the perfect measurement, but let’s try to keep this as simple as possible).
This week brings forth the first weekend where on Friday we have 10 nationally-ranked teams battling one-another. We may not come across such a scenario too many times this season, so let’s think of this like a unicorn. Rare, but still kind of exciting?
Here are this week’s breakdowns:
No. 1 Denver (-165) at No. 13 Massachusetts (+150) o/u 6
One week ago, we’d look at this matchup and think that Denver is such a massive favorite. But oddsmakers love the recency bias and last weekend Denver won twice against a nationally-ranked Notre Dame team and Maine to capture the IceBreaker.
UMass, on the other hand, had to rally from 2-0 down to earn a 2-2 tie was AIC, something that, regardless of AIC’s recent success, will be frowned upon by sharp bettors.
Thus we’ve manufactured a heavy home underdog in the Minutemen. Denver, as a defending national champion, will show as a bulked up favorite until it loses. UMass should get that respect but simply isn’t right now.
This is one of those games that should be easy to lay off as Denver’s price isn’t right and UMass feels like a risk, even at home. But if you’re so tempted, the odds may not be this good for UMass for a while.
No. 9 Boston University (+200) at No. 6 Michigan (-250) o/u 6
If you think UMass has a long price, take a look at fellow Hockey East foe Boston University which is a +200 road underdog.
This is a sensible line given that no one knows exactly what to expect from Jay Pandolfo’s team, it’s only test an 8-2 win over Bentley. But even so, this feels like a long line to set for a BU team that seems to have high expectations nationally.
But Michigan is Michigan and returns enough of a nucleus that many still believe this team can accomplish plenty. Some may say this team has even more upside with less superstars as more players can be cast in to roles as opposed to trying to find time for first-round draft picks on the third line.
Another game we’d advise to bet carefully.
No. 11 Ohio State (-115) at No. 17 Connecticut (-115) o/u 5.5
This is the first true “pick ’em” game that we’ve featured in USCHO Edge this season. Last week, we had a couple of games where both teams were taking negative money (i.e. -125), but neither had the exact game line. Well, OSU-UConn provides that new scenario.
Two teams that are perfect thus far in the season each face their biggest test. Can home ice prove to be enough of an advantage for the Huskies? That might be the biggest question.
Ohio State has a 15-7 scoring edge in four games; UConn a 15-8. Both are 4-0-0. Both has played two conference games and won each. Razor thin margins at this point. Which could tell us more at the end of the weekend about the leagues than the actual teams.
No. 8 Quinnipiac (+145) at No. 3 North Dakota (-180) o/u 5
Well-known college hockey scribe Brad Schlossman of the Grand Forks Herald made a very bold pick to begin the season.
Twelve months after correctly picking Denver as his preseason favorite to win the national championship, Schlossman, trying to ride his hot streak, picked Quinnipiac. The North Dakota faithful look at this weekend as a chance to hang their favorite scribe by his preseason pick.
In seriousness, Schlossman had perfect reason to select the Bobcats given their offensive prowess and the return of sophomore Yaniv Perets in goal, only the best true rookie netminder in the nation a year ago.
The fact that the Fighting Hawks are a favorite at home isn’t surprising. But how heavy favorite, -180, speaks more to Quinnipiac’s struggles last weekend at LIU as anything. Under Rand Pecknold, the Bobcats have gotten up plenty for big games, so this feels like a juicy line to challenge if you love the underdog.
No. 4 Minnesota Duluth (+105) at No. 5 Minnesota State (-135) o/u 5
Another great weekend of intra-Minnesota non-conference hockey is upon us. And once again, the pundits have a difficult time setting a line.
The atmosphere at Minnesota State last Saturday likely led to the slight favorite status for the Mavericks on Friday. But the reality is these two teams could flip a coin every time they play.
An underlying storyline that might play out for the final time this weekend is Sandelin vs. Sandelin as Duluth coach Scott Sandelin faces his son Ryan, a senior on Minnesota State, for what could be the last time.
But the way, talk about an easy over/under to set. These teams each have posted a total of five goals in their last two respective games. Thus, the over/under of 5 feels like the automatic push.
