Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Paula: Hey Dan, it’s good to be talking college hockey with you again, as always. This past weekend was completely entertaining in some unexpected ways – unexpected, that is, if you’re not following the Big Ten.
Michigan State, the team predicted by coaches to finish last in the conference, is now the top team in B1G Hockey after sweeping a very good Ohio State team. The Spartans are a point ahead of Penn State, the team picked to finish second-to-last, after the Nittany Lions split a pair of games with the Golden Gophers in Minneapolis.
The Gophers entered the weekend at No. 1, just as Michigan had a week before when Penn State split a home set against the Wolverines.
The Gophers and the Wolverines are each 4-2-0 in their last six games and each still has the relative confidence of DCU/USCHO Division I Men’s Poll voters, as they are second and third, respectively.
For the first time in a month, then, we have a non-B1G team in the top spot. Denver is the new No. 1, having swept North Dakota and won five of its last six – the only loss in that span in OT to No. 4 St. Cloud State.
I’m looking at the records of the top-20 poll teams and the stories that they tell are fascinating – like North Dakota under .500 and still being given the benefit of the doubt and Boston University outside the top 10 even though the Terriers have wins over No. 3 Michigan and No. 7 Connecticut.
What do you make of all of this? And is it too early to say that we’re seeing some trends emerge?
Dan: I’m a big fan of Olympic-style sports, so indulge me in a metaphor, simple, parabola, hyperbole, and any other word I can come up with that absolutely doesn’t fit with comparisons to cycling and the Tour de France when I describe what I’m seeing in the polls.
We have definitive tiers that have emerged, and nothing is upsetting that apple cart. The same 10 teams exist with little to no movement, save for the occasional outside-the-box first place vote (see also: my UConn votes over the last two weeks and the voter who went with Penn State this week). Other than that, nobody is moving on which teams should join the breakaway at the top of the poll.
The No. 1 spot is just being ping-ponged between the same teams: Denver, Minnesota, Michigan. There’s a secondary tier down to St. Cloud that’s challenging enough for the first spot, but after that, Quinnipiac, Penn State, Connecticut, and now Minnesota State don’t have the chops to get into that grouping for this year. Call it a disrespect to their conference or disbelief in their performances, but it’s the reality that we live in that a 10-2 Penn State can’t get more than 8-4 Minnesota, and 9-1-3 Connecticut couldn’t move out of being ranked No. 7 or No. 8 despite receiving an intrepid first-place vote two weeks ago and a second first place vote last week.
The funny thing is that I voted for Denver this week because I thought the Pios won the head-to-head matchup against UConn, but further down, Quinnipiac and the Huskies just won’t receive that type of respect anywhere else in the poll. It’s almost as if a team has to go on a run just to join a list of teams that nobody really wants to put it ahead of. Harvard, for example, is 6-0 and moved from No. 13 to No. 10, but it took Ohio State dropping to No. 12. Otherwise, none of the top nine teams changed.
Are we destined to have a boring season in the polls where nobody is allowed to join the breakaway? Is the yellow jersey just going to change hands for the next four months between the same four to five teams? I’m inclined to vote yes, only because nothing has indicated that it’ll change, unless you count Merrimack’s jump from No. 19 to No. 15…and truthfully, even under my criteria, I don’t see that changing too wildly until some of these teams really start losing to unranked teams, and even by then, if Minnesota loses to Michigan State, I don’t think that’s going to drop the Gophers all that much.
What say you?
Paula: I think we are seeing voters who are reluctant to believe that the college hockey landscape may be changing.
I also think we are seeing some voters – like the intrepid pollster who voted for Penn State in the top spot – who are only moved when they see evidence with their own two eyes.
I can understand the general reluctance to believe that Michigan State is for real right now – and I mean no disrespect to the Spartans when I say that. For most of the existence of Big Ten Hockey, Michigan State hasn’t done much above last place, even when the entire conference including the Spartans has played very competitive hockey. I’m guessing that voters who don’t yet believe are in wait-and-see mode and may think that the Spartans are just getting that new-coach boost.
The tiers we’re seeing solidify in the poll are a reflection as much of a bias – and in some cases, snobbery – as they are of caution. Sooner or later, voters will start looking at the PairWise and realize that some of their perceptions are incorrect. Things will budge a little, but you are, I think, essentially correct.
Speaking of bias and perception, I don’t understand why more people aren’t talking about RIT. The Tigers are unbeaten in their last seven and through 12 games this season, RIT is averaging 3.75 goals per game, sixth nationally. They have the third-best power play in the nation (31.7). the sixth-best penalty kill (88.2) and are right behind Ohio State in the PWR.
The Tigers are six points ahead of second-place Sacred Heart in the AHA standings, and while it’s still relatively early in the season, both RIT and Sacred Heart have the potential to be on another level ahead of the rest of their conference.
What is it going to take for good teams in Atlantic Hockey to be given their due, even a little bit?
Dan: You know, over the years I‘ve grown accustomed to that question of how Atlantic hockey gets more respect and love, and the more I’ve covered the national picture, I’ve realized the answer isn’t simple.
AHA programs truthfully deal with inherent bias that the teams in its league don’t operate with a full deck. The league has never consistently won non-conference games, and the times it does win, it gets treated like it wasn’t supposed to happen.
When AIC beat St. Cloud in the tournament, I was told by a number of people how it constituted the greatest upset in tournament history. I pushed back that Holy Cross over Minnesota was a huge upset. AIC wasn’t because that team was super talented in a league that was simply better.
That doesn’t mean the league is on par with a CCHA, but it does warrant a bit more respect. RIT is a darn good hockey team, and Sacred Heart is lots of fun to watch. Bentley has beaten Ohio State and BC. Canisius has beaten North Dakota. Unfortunately, those are isolated cases and not consistent to any one team or group of teams.
So the bias is a little bit justified, a little bit unjustified. I do believe, though, that bias in general very much exists when we talk about certain teams. We expect blue bloods to be good. We expect others to lose.
Look at our expansion teams. None of them are truly winning games with regularity, but the concept of a new team is different with the advent of the transfer portal and fifth year guys. Lindenwood had four wins and split with both Air Force and Bentley. LIU tied Quinnipiac and took Northeastern to overtime, and both built their rosters with help from the transfer portal.
Arizona State is obviously unique, but I’m expecting great things from one of these other programs in the next few years. Conferences aside, we shouldn’t be surprised when Stonehill knocks off BU or something that probably sounds strange, should we?
Paula: That question is more complicated than it looks on its surface, too. My quick answer is, “Yes, I’d be surprised to see Stonehill dump BU,” but that answer requires qualification.
We’re still surprised to see AHA and CCHA teams when they become consistently competitive on the national stage – and we all know that beyond perceptions and biases, the college hockey playing field is distinctly unlevel, so I’m not knocking programs from those conferences.
You mention AIC’s win over St. Cloud in 2019. People were surprised because it really was an upset, but no one paying attention to Atlantic Hockey should have been completely shocked. What I have a hard time grappling with is how dismissive people were of AIC after that – even though the NCAA win came at the end of AIC’s dominance in AHA, something that continued through last season. That’s what I don’t get. When programs show that they’re competitive over a period of time, it’s still nearly impossible for them to earn respect.
Back to your question about Stonehill. Sure, I’d be surprised if the Skyhawks beat BU next season because it would be a genuine upset, but nearly anyone really can beat anyone else on a given night, so a one-off may be a head scratcher but says more about the defeated team than the victors. Now, if Stonehill continued to rack up wins against established teams after than one-off, we’d be having a conversation about the Skyhawks and not the losing clubs.
Pivoting slightly, one of my favorite outcomes from this past weekend was the pair of ties between UConn and Providence. Friday’s 1-1 game somehow led to Saturday’s 6-6 contest, and Connecticut never led in the series. I say that I’m pivoting slightly here because the Huskies and Friars are two of four teams in the Hockey East standings that have neither “Boston” nor “Massachusetts” in their school names – teams that may not get the traditional amount of attention that other HEA teams receive.
I’m not quite sure what’s happening in that conference this season, but if it leads to anything like the finish we saw in HEA last season, I’m all about it. The kind of parity that Hockey East is building conferencewide is very exciting. What’s the buzz about it in Boston?
Dan: I’d like to say that the Commonwealth is teeming with all of this competitive college hockey right now, but it truthfully feels a little bit dead. Coverage is still marching forward, but the advent of Connecticut and Providence is stealing some of the Massachusetts-based limelight.
UMass isn’t the same UMass that went on the national championship run, and UMass Lowell, while intriguing, is in that clear second tier that I mentioned earlier. Northeastern is kind of hanging around but is running well behind all of those teams, and Boston University isn’t jumping into the spotlight currently held by UConn.
Connecticut has really upset the apple cart here. A couple of months ago, I complained that new teams weren’t emerging. I didn’t like how things were gravitating towards the blue bloods to the degree that all of those teams were in clear separation from the pack, but, keeping with my cycling reference from earlier, UConn was the team that successfully chased down the leaders. The Huskies broke from the peloton and attacked the lead group, and here we are, now, with UConn definitively grabbing that spotlight.
That doesn’t mean Boston doesn’t exist, but the heat surrounding Connecticut is a supernova. I’ve watched the state for years because I felt the groundwork from Quinnipiac and UConn laid some serious foundations, and Sacred Heart’s arena announcement launched the program into some serious heights that it’ll occupy before the year is over (there are $75 million reasons people should be paying attention to the Pioneers’ journey).
I’d often talk about the history of college hockey at the state level with SHU head coach CJ Marottolo, and I think the start of this season means the New England region is on the verge of a power shift that’s similar to the one Providence grabbed when the Friars emerged onto the national scene.
There’s a challenge issued, and right now, the headliners from Connecticut and Rhode Island are clearly winning over the market share over the Boston-based and Massachusetts-based schools. If BU and Harvard can chase down UConn and Quinnipiac, things are going to get very interesting.
A hockey civil war in New England? It’d be fun to watch, and after all the posturing that’s taken place, the argument over which field is better – Connecticut Ice vs. Beanpot, Nutmeg State vs. Bay State, even State vs. Commonwealth! – is taking its turn around our carousel, at least for now.
