It’s that time of year again.
I’m not talking about the holidays. I’m talking about the end of the first half of the college hockey season, when my editors generously let me write a thousand or so words where I get to pretend like I’m Nostradamus.
And, if you’ve been following the CCHA at all in 2022, you’ll know that things have been especially chaotic and that any attempt to try and predict what is going to happen after Christmas is probably going to blow up in my face.
However, with that caveat out of the way, let me get right into it. I’ve categorized the eight CCHA members into three different tiers: “The Contenders,” “In The Hunt,” and the special category entitled the “I have no idea what’s happening here” teams (you’ll see what I mean about that one when you get there).
I think it’s pretty clear that the three teams in the “Contenders” category have the inside track to win the MacNaughton Cup, but also remember that this league is so tight that I think any of the top six teams in the conference have a chance to make a run and win the thing.
So please don’t yell at me about Bowling Green being just two points behind Bemidji State and Michigan Tech – I’m aware, I can read the standings, but I have reasons for why I think this. (Also — and this is important — I’m not a wizard and do not have the power to see into the future. Unfortunately.)
The Contenders
Bemidji State (25 points)
The Beavers (9-5-2, 7-2-3 CCHA) have been quietly plugging along, mostly under-the-radar, but once they took five of six points from the Minnesota State to jump to the top of the standings, people started to take notice. They’re now tied with Michigan Tech for first but have two games-in-hand.
And if you look into the numbers, you’ll see that it’s no fluke. They’ve taken at least three points from every conference series so far this year and have the highest points-percentage of any teams in the league.
Their defense has been outstanding in those conference games, too – goaltender Mattias Sholl and BSU’s experienced back line that includes Elias Rosen, Kyle Looft and Will Zmolek has allowed just 24 goals in 12 league games. That bodes well for them in the second half, but their big obstacle to winning the MacNaughton Cup is going to be scoring. The past four games have seen them score at least three goals each time, but otherwise they have struggled to find consistency up front.
Michigan Tech (25 points)
This season’s success for the Huskies (11-5-3, 7-4-3 CCHA) has been somewhat unexpected. I think most people expected some sort of regression after Tech lost a slew of talented offensive players, including Hobey Baker top-ten finalist Brian Halonen. And unlike Bemdiji State, which also found itself in a similar predicament, the Huskies did not have quite as many top defensemen returning to the fold. They did, however, have goaltender Blake Pietila, who, along with Sholl, has been one of the top goalies in the conference. Pietila leads in save percentage (.928 to .922) while Sholl has the slight edge in goals-against (1.95 to 1.98).
The only real difference right now between the Beavers and the Huskies? The fact that the Beavers took five of six points from Tech in Houghton way back in October. On the other hand: The Huskies are a perfect 4-0 in nonconference play while the Beavers are 2-3-1, which currently puts Tech at No. 19 in the Pairwise and are the team with the best shot at an at-large bid as things stand. Tech has two nonconference series left (both tournaments – the GLI and the Desert Classic) and can further improve their standing with four more wins there. And you’ll want to circle Feb. 3-4 on your calendars. That’s when the Huskies travel to Bemidji for what could be the deciding series in the race for MacNaughton.
Minnesota State (24 points)
Are the Mavericks in crisis mode? Maybe not quite. After all, they’re still in third place. But it sure is odd to take a look at the Pairwise and have to scroll all the way down to No. 24 to find Minnesota State. And it’s even odder still that their record is just above .500 – just 10-9-1 overall and 7-6-1 in conference play.
Can we possibly just chalk it up to a bad December? MSU went 2-4-0 this month, but the odd thing about this was the “how.” The Mavericks lost four straight home games (against Ferris State and Bemidji State) for the first time since 2006, but those losses bookended an emphatic sweep at Bowling Green.
The Mavericks are still scoring, with David Silye and Jake Livingstone leading that charge. And I think we knew coming into the season that life without Dryden McKay might be tough.
In The Hunt
Bowling Green (23 points)
The Falcons (8-12-0, 7-7-0 CCHA) were atop the conference standings for a long time, but that’s mostly because until recently they’d played four more games than most of their conference rivals. Now that games played has evened out a bit, BG has sunk down the standings. Looking a bit closer at their 7-7 record, it seems clear the Falcons are, at least so far, exactly where they’re supposed to be. They’ve beaten the teams they’re supposed to beat (having swept St. Thomas and Lake State), lost to the teams you would expect (0-4 against Minnesota State) and split with the rest of the teams in the league aside from Bemidji, who they haven’t played.
The Falcons could go on a run in the second half of the season and compete for the league title, but the fact that they can’t seem to keep the goals out of their own net doesn’t bode well. (Their 69 goals allowed are among the worst in the country and behind only St. Thomas’ 71 as far as the conference goes.) If you take that into account, it seems much more likely that they will be fighting for the fourth and final home ice slot.
Ferris State (20 points)
I think you’ll find that all three teams in this tier have somewhat similar profiles (lots of splits against their mid-table peers), but the big difference with the Bulldogs (8-8-2, 6-5-1 CCHA) is that they have yet to be swept in conference play. Also big for the ‘Dawgs: Their sweep of Minnesota State in Mankato earlier this month.
The Bulldogs, at least to me, seem to be the team trending best in this group. Those six points against MSU were obviously a big help, but the second half of the season sees them get to play Lake Superior four times, along with more matchups against BG and NMU. They also get to play Tech, Bemidji and Minnesota State at Ewigleben Ice Arena – a place where weird things have been known to happen to the best of teams. A fourth place finish would be outstanding for a team that went 1-23-1 just two seasons ago.
Northern Michigan (18 points)
The Wildcats (11-9-0, 7-5-0 CCHA) are another team that has struggled to put consistent results together, but they, too, found a way to defeat Minnesota State in Mankato (I’m sensing a pattern here).
NMU has one of the top scorers in the country in AJ Vanderbeck (11g-13a-24pts), and teammates Andre Ghantous (4-16-20) and Artem Shlaine (8-9-17) are among the CCHA leaders. What NMU needs is for some of their secondary scorers like Kristoff Papp, Joey Larson and David Keefer to become more consistent so they can start getting more than three points on a weekend to move further up the standings.
The “I Have No Idea What’s Going On Here” teams
St. Thomas (14 points)
As you’ll see, I’m grouping St. Thomas (5-14-1, 4-9-1) and Lake Superior State together for different reasons, but let’s start with the Tommies. They are likely not going to be playing for home ice in the second half of the season, much less the MacNaughton Cup, but they aren’t to be overlooked.
Rico Blasi has assembled a talented young squad that seemingly needed about a month-and-a-half together to really gel. They lost 12 of their first 14 games to the likes of St. Cloud State, Penn State, Minnesota State and Michigan Tech, but they were competitive in every game. Since then, they’ve gone 3-2-1 with points in every series.
As the Tommies’ young players keep growing and getting better, they’re going to be dangerous. Josh Eernisse and Mack Beyers are both in the top five in scoring in the conference with 10 goals apiece, and Lucas Wahlin’s 17 points are already a Tommies’ Division I record. I don’t think anybody in the top half of the conference is going to want to match up with St. Thomas in the first round of the CCHA tournament.
Lake Superior State (7 points)
I have the Lakers (3-13-2, 2-9-1 CCHA) grouped here partly because I think it’s going to be hard for them to move up in the league standings, but mostly I have them here because I’m not sure why they’re here. They returned eight seniors and 10 juniors. Many of them were key pieces of the team that won the WCHA tournament in 2021 and went to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1996. Forward Louis Boudon and defenseman Jacob Bengtsson were both all-CCHA second-team players in 2022.
So it doesn’t make sense that a team with so much talent is so far from contention. I believe I had them picked to finish third in the conference, competing for a title and possibly making some noise in the Pairwise. That hasn’t happened, and although Boudon is still scoring, the rest of the team hasn’t followed suit (just 36 goals scored in 18 games). Maybe some of the other experienced forwards (like Brandon Puricelli, Logan Jenuwine and Harrison Roy) can step up and help the Lakers be more competitive and try to get out of the cellar.
Special observer status
Augustana
This isn’t technically one of the categories I had listed, but I felt I needed to mention soon-to-be-CCHA-member Augustana. There hasn’t been a lot of news out of Sioux Falls, but if any South Dakotans are reading and want to get excited about next season, you can watch their brand-spanking-new Midco Arena be built in real time!
Happy trails, P.A.
One last thing. I know he probably hates the attention, and I know Matt Semisch mentioned him in his Monday 10 piece earlier this week, but I think every CCHA fan needs to take some time to thank and acknowledge the work of former Minnesota State sports information director Paul Allan, who retired last week after 37 years. His last game in the MSU press box was the Mavericks’ Dec. 16 game against Bemidji State.
Allan started at MSU in 1985. That was when the Mavs were (briefly) in Division III. He’s seen Minnesota State play in three different divisions and four different conferences (the NCHA, the two versions of the WCHA and the CCHA). He worked under the legendary Don Brose as well as Troy Jutting and Mike Hastings. He’s seen the Mavericks play in five Frozen Fours – including two at the Division I level. In other words, he’s seen it all, and his knowledge of college hockey is deep and enthusiasm for it is boundless.
I started working with him when I arrived in Bemidji in 2012 to cover the Beavers, and one thing that’s been a constant is how hard he is willing to work to help arrange interviews, credential requests, photos, whatever people need–and always with a joke and a good-natured attitude. You could always tell how much he loved Minnesota State athletics (he did it all, too–not just hockey) and the Mankato community and loved getting more MSU coverage out in the world.
I think most of us Midwest-based college hockey writers have great memories of working in press boxes with Allan, but if not, here’s a nice podcast interview/tribute the Mavericks made with the help of USCHO alumnus Shane Frederick that captures the essence of P.A.
Happy trails, Paul, and enjoy being able to kick back and watch the Mavericks as a fan!
(Of course, right before this piece published, it was announced that P.A. isn’t ACTUALLY retiring. He’s going to be working as director of communications for the USHL. Another gig he’s going to be GREAT at, and one that keeps him somewhat involved in the college hockey world. Congrats, P.A.!)
