There are three weeks left of the regular season, but many teams will either take a bye week or play non-conference opponents in that time, meaning for some teams, they have just four games in which to make their final play for seeding in postseason tournaments. There are tight races in every conference, even if the top spot might already be secured. Each conference’s home page has information on scoring and tiebreakers, but consider this a quickish guide to how things stand, how they might shake out and what teams and series will have the most riding on them.
CHA
Penn State has the top spot and eight points over both Mercyhurst and Syracuse, but Mercyhurst will play two more conference games than the other two and has what looks to be the most favorable schedule, playing Syracuse, RIT and Lindenwood, teams they are 5-0-1 against this season.
The Nittany Lions are looking for the regular season championship and top seed, but they’re also looking not to lose any ground in the Pairwise, where they are currently 10th and in place to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. They’d be happier winning the CHA tournament and getting the autobid, but they’ve done their best to cover all their bases and put themselves in the best possible situation to earn their first-ever trip to the NCAA Tournament. They can’t afford to drop any points, give up any ground or give the committee any reason to doubt their resume. Teams that advance in the NCAA’s are playing their best hockey at the end of the year. I think that’s true for Penn State right now and they need to prove it and use these final few weeks to build up and be ready to peak at the right time.
The CHA Tournament has been one of the most volatile in recent years in terms of upsets and someone other than the regular season winner taking the championship – and autobid. Syracuse is a team in transition after longtime coach Paul Flanagan retired following last season. Britni Smith has the Orange in position to be a spoiler. They’ve been a team to reckon with in the postseason for a few years now, so I’m less hung up on their regular season record or finish. If they end up third, which feels likely, and end up in the semifinals, they’ll give the top seed a tough game.
Mercyhurst can never be counted out. They’ve got strong goaltending, some very good goal-scorers and Mike Sisti has had his program in more NCAA Tournaments than the rest of the conference combined. The Lakers know the rhythm of the season and he’s been preparing them to be their best here in February. They can build momentum against teams below them in the standings, push Penn State for that top spot and all other things being equal, they are the team I’d pick in a one-off conference tournament every time because of Sisti’s experience.
ECAC
Yale has a two point lead on Quinnipiac and have a game in hand over the Bobcats. The Bulldogs are pushing for their first-ever regular season championship after setting a program record in wins last season and finishing second. Colgate has not gotten quite as much attention as the Bulldogs and Bobcats, but they’re just five points behind Yale and are actually fourth in the Pairwise at the time of publishing. They also have six games left on their schedule.
Yale and Colgate will meet each other next week, but Quinnipiac’s toughest opponent left on the schedule is Clarkson, who they’ll play to close off the season. They’ll face three of the bottom four teams and St. Lawrence before they get there. After a fully uncharacteristic 11-3 shellacking by Princeton last week, the Bobcats need to make sure they keep their focus, don’t look past anyone and figure out not just what went wrong, but how to make sure it doesn’t happen again. That loss is either going to start a slide or serve as a wake-up call for Quinnipiac.
With the strength of the bottom half of the ECAC standings, absolutely nothing is going to be guaranteed or easy for any of these teams. Yale has been the most even-keeled and steady of the three so far. Their defense has been stellar, allowing just more than a goal per game. Nothing has seemed to fluster the Elis and it certainly feels like they are on course to repeat last season’s march to the Frozen Four, though they’ll be looking to make it to the title game this season.
Clarkson and Cornell will be fighting it out to close out the season for the fourth spot in the standings and home ice in the conference tournament quarterfinals. The Golden Knights have what looks to be the toughest path to the end of the regular season, starting with Cornell and Colgate this weekend and finishing up with Princeton and Quinnipiac.
Harvard and St. Lawrence are tied and Princeton is two points back. I’m not sure any quarterfinal assignment would be preferable here, but not heading to one-loss Yale is the priority, I would think.
Hockey East
Northeastern already has the conference title wrapped up, but Vermont and Providence have outside hope for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, so there’s still a lot on the table in the final weeks of the regular season.
The Huskies have a game against UConn and two against Boston University on the calendar, plus The Beanpot, where they’ll face BU in the opening round. While I don’t think Dave Flint would have chosen to play a team from the bottom half of the conference so much as preparation for the postseason, there’s also a lot that can be learned in terms of mental approach and preparation that I think could put them in a good place for the postseason.
Vermont is currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the Pairwise. Their loss to BU last week was a hit they couldn’t really afford. They close out the season with three straight games against New Hampshire. At this point, I think what the Catamounts are looking for is a second place finish and not having to play the Huskies until the conference tournament championship.
The Friars would be looking for that same eventuality in hunting down the two seed. The difference is their 1-1-1 record against Northeastern this season. Providence would love nothing more than a one-game shot at knocking off the top seed and they have proven themselves capable of doing so. In fact, with Hockey East’s new playoff format, which debuted last season, every team will be hoping for that one-game magic against Northeastern. All ten teams once again make the postseason, with the bottom four teams facing off in a quarterfinal round before reseeding. The whole tournament is single-elimination.
NEWHA
LIU have the lead and two games in hand over Saint Anselm, who only have four games left on their schedule. LIU has a much tougher go of it over the final weeks, with games against the teams currently sitting third, fourth and fifth, but have just one conference loss all season and need just one point out of their next six games to secure at least a share of the regular season title. Meanwhile the Hawks play the bottom two teams in the standings. Saint Anselm swept the four games they had against Post and Saint Michael’s already and while it’s never wise to count points before you earn them they should come out with enough points to force LIU to have to at least tie in order to take a share of the title. Beyond chasing LIU, the Hawks need to earn every possible point as Stonehill sits just one point back.
In their first year in the league, Stonehill is looking to follow the history of new programs making big waves. Moving up in the standings would give them a better path to the conference title game and from there, the conference’s first autobid is up for grabs.
If the Hawks and Skyhawks spend too much time looking forward, they could get caught unaware by Sacred Heart or Franklin Pierce, who are in striking distance. They each have two games in hand, giving them more of a chance to make up ground and really disrupt the way the final standings shake out. Thirteen points separate eighth place from fourth place. How the final few weeks shake out could significantly shake up those seeds.
WCHA
Never let it be said that the WCHA doesn’t like drama. A quick look back in the archive shows the folks who make the schedule in this conference are a big fan of having the top teams meetup up over the final few weeks and this year is no exception. Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin all face each other over the final three weekends of regular season play and, thanks to a Saturday/Sunday series, Wisconsin and Ohio State will face off as the final game of the regular season across DI women’s college hockey. They’re the only ones scheduled to play on February 19.
The WCHA is also one of the conferences that uses a three point system, meaning that Minnesota’s nine point lead on Wisconsin is absolutely surmountable for the Badgers. The Gophers get to play their four games against UW and OSU at home and thus far this season, they’re the team that’s given the Buckeyes a full, tough two-game weekend, taking a win and a tie with a shootout loss. I don’t think any of these teams will dominate the others. Wisconsin still has the biggest question marks, but they know their position is more precarious than they’d like and they get Ohio State at home, which I think is to their advantage.
I can’t imagine trying to predict any of the outcomes of those games. Never underestimate Nadine Muzerall, Brad Frost or Mark Johnson or the players on their teams. It’s a fool’s errand to try and hypothesize, so it’s probably best to sit back and enjoy the very good hockey fans will be treated to over the next three weeks. Minnesota and Ohio State faceoff this weekend, the Badgers head to the Twin Cities for Valentine’s and the Buckeyes and Badgers fight it out in Madison to close out the year.
We have our Pairwise rankings up and based on that information, all four of the top teams here should get into the NCAA tournament – Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Minnesota Duluth. At the moment, St. Cloud State is actually a tournament bubble team, sitting 13th in Pairwise. That would be a stretch and I’ve heard chatter that folks think it might be unlikely for the selection committee to award three at-large bids to one conference, so seeing five teams go would be pretty shocking. That being said, the Huskies have shown they can take on any team in this league. I like their chances best in a one-and-done scenario, so the goal from SCSU has to be eking out two wins in the quarterfinals. With Emma Soderberg in UMD’s net, that’s a tough ask, but honestly, not out of the realm of possibility. I love a team that has nothing to lose and if St. Cloud makes it to the Final Faceoff, things could get very interesting here.
