With three weeks remaining in the regular season, everything in the Big Ten is a numbers game.
Last weekend’s results created the kind of scenario that many sports fans love and coaches hate, the possibility that nothing concrete will be resolved until the last game of the season.
Well, maybe not nothing. While results aren’t guaranteed, there’s very little wiggle room at the top and the bottom of the B1G standings. The rest is math, although there may be a little magic involved, too – magic numbers, that is.
Minnesota’s magic number
Two. That’s the number of games that the Golden Gophers need to win to secure their second consecutive and sixth total regular-season Big Ten title.
Minnesota is the only B1G team in control of its own fate right now. Any two wins will work for the Gophers without any help from anyone else in the league.
The Gophers can clinch the season this weekend with two wins against Wisconsin or a single win if both Ohio State and Michigan each lose a game this weekend.
Not a magic number, but fun all the same
Four. That’s the number of teams knotted together behind Minnesota in the standings.
Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State have 30 points each. The four-way tie is a result of the Wolverines and Spartans sweeping their opponents and the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions splitting a series.
Because the Buckeyes, Wolverines and Gophers have two games in hand on the Spartans and Nittany Lions, Ohio State and Michigan are the only two teams in that standings clump mathematically capable of capturing part of the regular-season title. It’s a long longshot, but with some help from Minnesota losses, the Buckeyes need to win five of their six remaining games and the Wolverines need to win out to catch the Gophers.
National numbers that matter
Six. That’s the number of Big Ten teams currently in or near enough to the top 16 spots in the PairWise Rankings to hold out hope for an at-large NCAA tournament bid. At No. 18, the Irish are the team on the outside looking in, but Notre Dame’s remaining games against Ohio State (No. 8) and Michigan (No. 4) may help them gain some traction, depending very much on how other teams near them in the PWR end their seasons.
Minnesota remains at the top of the PairWise Rankings. With a bit of luck, the Big Ten could see two of its teams garner top seeds in NCAA regionals.
Interesting math
Six. That’s the number of games that Wisconsin would have to win in addition to Notre Dame losing its remaining four games for the Badgers to move out of last place in the final standings.
A simple formula
Three. That’s the number of games by which Michigan State has surpassed its season win total from 2021-22.
The Spartans added two of those wins last weekend with a home sweep of Notre Dame, limiting the Fighting Irish to two goals in the series a weekend after Michigan State allowed 14 goals to Minnesota on the road.
First-year coach Adam Nightingale said that he and his staff have been consistent in their approach all season and that some things aren’t measured in the number of wins the Spartans have earned.
“We’ve tried to focus the whole year on things we can control,” said Nightingale, things like practices and weight room sessions. Nightingale said that effort and attitude are key. “You focus on those versus the results or making something really bigger than it is at the end of the day. It’s the game of hockey. We work on it every day and I think we’ve got a good team. There’s no reason to panic. Our group’s done a good job of that throughout the year.”
Nightingale pointed to Michigan State’s first Big Ten game of the season, a 5-0 loss to Notre Dame Oct. 28. “We came back and won in the shootout.” Bouncing back after tough loss is a trademark for this team, he said.
“I look at the way we lost to Ohio State and came back and swept Penn State at home. The way it went for us at Minnesota. Every time before that weekend, people were saying, ‘it’s a big week, it’s a big week,’ and for us, we’re excited about playing any time we get to play. I think our guys have enjoyed that approach.
“I think that’s just how our staff’s wired, just not trying to get ahead of ourselves and understanding that every day’s an opportunity to get better. I do think that’s important for any team, just focus on the next game.”
This weekend, the Spartans host the Wolverines Friday before the teams face off inside the home of the Detroit Red Wings, Little Caesars Arena, on Saturday.
“Our guys are focused on Friday,” said Nightingale. “We’ve got enough guys that have played in those buildings that I don’t think we’ll be overwhelmed. We’ll be excited and appreciative of the opportunity, and we’ll take full advantage of it, but they’re not making it bigger than it is.”
Like the Wolverines – and the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions – the Spartans are vying for home ice in the first round of the Big Ten playoffs. All seven B1G teams participate in the three-weekend conference playoffs, with the regular-season champs earning a first-round bye and the teams that finish second through fourth hosting best-of-three quarterfinal series March 3-5. If the Spartans finish fifth or lower, Friday’s game against Michigan will be their last at home this season. They finish up with Wisconsin on the road.
“We’re going to have to stay the course, just focus on the next game,” said Nightingale. “I think that stuff will take care of itself. Obviously, we’d love to have the chance for our fans to see us again, but we’ve got to take care of the games that are played in front of us, and that starts Friday.”
A rivalry by the numbers
One of the most exciting things about the reemergence of Michigan State hockey is what that does for the rivalry between the Spartans and Wolverines, arguably one of the best in college hockey.
The teams are even this season after splitting a pair of 2-1 games in home-and-home series Dec. 9-10, but the Wolverines owned the Spartans last year, taking all six games that the teams played including a two-game sweep during the first round of the Big Ten playoffs in which Michigan outscored Michigan State 12-1.
- The teams first met Jan. 11, 1922, a 5-1 Michigan win.
- Michigan is 177-139-24 all-time against Michigan State.
- The Spartans are 70-54-12 all-time in the series in games played at Munn Ice Arena.
- Michigan is 38-22-7 all-time against Michigan State at neutral sites.
- Michigan has won The Iron D, a trophy at stake in the annual game played in Detroit, a total of five times since the introduction of the hardware in 2016. Michigan State has claimed it once.
The Wolverines and Spartans have been league foes in six different college hockey conferences dating back to the formation of the Midwestern Collegiate Hockey League in 1951. In those 71 years, the teams have faced off in a playoff championship game only three times, and all in CCHA play. Michigan won twice (1997, 2002) and Michigan State once (2001).
One final number, and it is magic in its own way
Sixteen. That’s the number of games that Michigan defenseman Steven Holtz missed after his brush with death earlier this season.
Having recovered physically and been declared academically eligible, Holtz played both games in Michigan’s sweep of Wisconsin last weekend.
