It always feels like this.
In the 10 years I’ve spent covering the old WCHA, then the new WCHA, and now finally the new CCHA, it can often feel like I’m writing the same story every year at the season’s end: Nothing is decided, and everyone is pretty close.
Michigan Tech leads Minnesota State by two points in the title race. Bowling Green, Bemidji State and Ferris State could all still finish third, or they could be out of home-ice contention. Both Northern Michigan and St. Thomas could also technically gain home ice for the playoffs.
While that seems almost too good to be true – like someone is writing a script – let me just reiterate: It’s always been like this. There’s only been three seasons since realignment when the winner of the MacNaughton Cup did so before the final two weeks of the season. More often than not, it’s close right up until the end for the league title, not to mention for things like home ice.
At this point, the only thing that has actually been clinched is Michigan Tech’s home ice in the first round of the playoffs. Nearly everything else is still up for grabs.
“It’s a weekend that, this time of year, these are huge weekends for everybody,” Bemidji State coach Tom Serratore said during his weekly press conference prior to Beavers taking on Minnesota State at home this weekend. “Everybody has something at stake right now. Mankato wants to win a championship, we want to get home ice, things are tight between Tech and Mankato, it’s tight between us and Ferris State and Northern Michigan right now… so I mean, there’s just so much on the line right now.”
With that in mind, I thought it would be a good idea to run down where we’re at with two weeks left.
The way I see it, there are three bands of competition.
The title race
Michigan Tech (47 points), Minnesota State (45 points)
With apologies to Bowling Green (41 points), but for them, the math (as they say) ain’t mathin.’
The Huskies lead the Mavericks right now, but because the CCHA schedule has been so fluky – it seems like nobody has ever played the exact same amount of games all season – MSU has two games in hand. The Mavs travel to Bemidji State this weekend while the Huskies are off. Last week, it was reversed. The Huskies split with Bowling Green and took the lead in the conference, but only because the Mavericks were on their bye week.
Of course, when I talked about “script writers” earlier, what I actually meant was “schedule-makers.” Whoever finalized the league schedule this year did a fantastic job, as the Mavericks host the Huskies in Mankato next week in what essentially will amount to a winner-take-all series.
Third place
Bowling Green (41 points); Bemidji State (34 points); Ferris State (33 points)
With regards to BGSU: The Falcons are technically six points behind Tech and four behind Mankato, but they have two things against them. The first – the little fact that Mankato and Tech play head-to-head – wouldn’t be so bad if not for the second – the fact that the Falcons are also on a bye this week.
Meanwhile, Bemidji and Ferris just met head-to-head last weekend and… nothing changed. The Bulldogs beat the Beavers on Friday to briefly pull ahead in the standings but stayed there for less than 24 hours, as BSU won the series finale.
Although BSU and FSU are eight and nine points, respectively, behind the Falcons, both could sweep this weekend and actually put themselves in contention to pass them. This is easier said than done, especially since the Beavers have to play Minnesota State this weekend, but it’s very possible that both teams could secure home ice and leave the Falcons on the outside looking in.
The “Still-not-out-of-it-for-home-ice” teams
Northern Michigan (27 points), St. Thomas (26 points)
A pair of longshots who technically still have a chance to clinch home ice should other results go their way.
NMU, as noted, plays Ferris State this weekend and could move into a tie for fifth if they sweep the Bulldogs. If that happens, St. Thomas could also close in with a sweep of Lake Superior – a team the Tommies have already swept once this year.
The Wildcats then close out with Bowling Green – the team they opened the season against on the very first weekend of the season – while the Tommies host Bemidji State.
On the bottom
Lake Superior State (17 points)
The Lakers’ chances of escaping the cellar are slim, but it’s still possible if they win out and results go their way. The only thing we know for sure about them is that they are the only team in the league out of the running for home ice. The more likely question is this: Will they be visiting Houghton or Mankato in the first round of the playoffs?
