Heading into the final weekend of regular-season Big Ten play, we know two things for sure about conference playoff seedings: Minnesota has the first-round bye and Wisconsin travels for that first week of playoff action.
Where the Badgers are going, though, remains a mystery for a few days more.
First things first. Congratulations to the Golden Gophers, who secured their second consecutive regular-season title when Ohio State took a shootout point from Michigan last Thursday.
While winning the title came on a night that they didn’t play, the Gophers put their own stamp on it with a road sweep of Penn State, a team that had previously lost just four home games this season.
Minnesota coach Bob Motzko said that he liked how the Gophers played in both games against the Nittany Lions, which included a resounding 7-2 Friday win and a 3-2 OT tilt Saturday.
“Man to man, shift to shift, I thought we were a pretty darn good hockey team this weekend,” said Motzko.
Maybe Man to Man, Shift to Shift will be the title of the book that someone writes someday about the last decade of Minnesota hockey. This is the sixth time that the Gophers have finished first in Big Ten play since the inception of the conference in 2013-14.
As for Wisconsin, the Badgers can finish no higher than last place regardless of how they fare this weekend on the road against Penn State. For the first-round, best-of-three playoff series, Wisconsin will play the team that finishes in second place.
Heading into this weekend, this is what the rest of the field looks like.
Michigan and Ohio State
Currently tied behind Minnesota with 36 points, the Wolverines and the Buckeyes can each finish as high as second place and as low as fifth. If they remain tied after this weekend – no matter where they are in the standings – Ohio State owns the first tiebreaker because of its 2-1-1 record against Michigan this weekend.
That means that if each team loses twice this weekend and Penn State wins two games (more on that in a moment), Ohio State will host a first-round series and Michigan will travel.
Michigan hosts Notre Dame this weekend. The teams split a pair of games in South Bend in November.
Ohio State travels to Minnesota this weekend. The teams split a pair of games in Columbus in October.
Any bets? I’ve got nothing.
Michigan State, Notre Dame, Penn State
Each of these teams is still technically in the hunt for home ice in the first round of the playoffs.
Having finished with their regular-season schedule, all the Spartans can do is wait. Right behind the Wolverines and Buckeyes with 34 points, the Spartans are mathematically in the hunt for a first-round home playoff series. Michigan State can finish as high as fourth place.
There are only a couple of scenarios in which that happens, including Wisconsin preventing Penn State from earning more than two points at home this weekend.
The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions each have 31 points. If each team sweeps this weekend and Minnesota takes more than a point from Ohio State, Notre Dame and Penn State would end the season tied in second place.
If that were to happen – if both the Irish and the Nittany Lions sweep the weekend and the Buckeyes earn no more than a point against Minnesota – Notre Dame would be the top seed in the first round of the Big Ten playoffs.
How? Because the Irish would have two fewer conferences losses than the Nittany Lions, and that’s the fourth Big Ten tiebreaker – and that’s how close this season has been.
So there is a possibility that in the first round, Notre Dame hosts Wisconsin, Penn State hosts Michigan State, and Ohio State hosts Michigan.
I’m not wagering on any of that, either.
Season picks vs. this photo finish
In their preseason poll, the Big Ten coaches were confident that Minnesota would finish at the top of the standings and that Michigan State would finish last. They were not alone in those assumptions. Here’s their preseason poll:
1. Minnesota
2. Notre Dame
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Ohio State
6. Penn State
7. Michigan State
With the exception of that fourth-place Wisconsin finish, nothing else is exceptionally glaring about that poll.
And how did I do? Surprisingly okay. Sort of. At the start of the season, here’s how I saw the Big Ten regular-season finish:
1. Notre Dame
2. Minnesota
3. Michigan
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan State
7. Penn State
There are several scenarios this weekend – as unlikely as they may be – that make my preseason picks look a little better than they actually were. Heading into this weekend, there are five teams within a five-point span in the middle of the standings. That’s a prediction that I’m sure no one would have made back in September.
Next week, we’ll preview all the first-round matches.
