Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Jim: Well, Ed, I think it’s safe to say that this season is in its waning days.
Four leagues have completely finished play – the CCHA, ECAC, Atlantic Hockey and Big Ten – and a fifth, the NCHC, has already crowned its champion (congratulations, Denver, for a second straight year).
Minnesota State also won the CCHA regular-season title for a sixth year in a row.
And then there is Hockey East, maybe college hockey’s biggest conundrum. I think you may have some of the best teams in the nation in that league, but they are all cannibalizing one another and as of today, Boston University is the only team from the league in the NCAA tournament.
This isn’t a new topic as we’ve seen this coming for a few weeks now, but I think everyone, including you and I, felt like another team – Northeastern, Providence, Merrimack, UConn – would go on a run and emerge. Right now, that hasn’t happened. BU is in the driver’s seat to win the regular season. But beyond that, not surprisingly, little is decided.
Maybe because I see so much Hockey East action, I look at this league with rose-colored glasses. But you’re more neutral. Is it crazy to think that any Hockey East team that could get into the NCAA field could be considered quite dangerous?
Ed: I think any of the four teams you noted could be dangerous if they can emerge from Hockey East or put together enough wins to get inside the PWR bubble.
When it comes to playoff time, having great goaltending can take you a long way. Devon Levi is that sort of goalie. Northeastern took a step back with the road loss at UMass on Friday, but they’ve climbed out of the 40s in the PairWise – after dealing with midseason injuries – to just outside the bubble today. The Huskies can gain some PairWise position and maybe even win the league if they take care of business against UMass Lowell this weekend.
Merrimack is another head-scratcher. The Warriors were as high as No. 3 in the PairWise Rankings in December but had a terrible January and first weekend of February. But they’re right on the heels of Northeastern in the PairWise after four straight wins and are still in the mix to win Hockey East if they can win over Vermont at home. If the first semester version of Merrimack can keep it rolling, I’d watch out for them, too.
Looks like UConn can still make it into the NCAA tournament if the Huskies from Storrs can make it to the league championship game, but Providence needs to win Hockey East or keep its fingers crossed for everything to improbably fall its way. Teams that make a strong run at the end are always dangerous, so if either of those two is able to go on a heater, then I’d watch out.
We’ve talked on our podcasts about the Big Ten getting five or six teams in, but some teams in that league have cooled off. I’ll admit I was ready to write of Notre Dame until their weekend against Michigan propelled them to 14th in the PairWise and home ice in the quarterfinals. The Fighting Irish need to keep above .500 to stay in the mix, and they face a Michigan State team that needs to keep winning to move on. What are your expectations for that conference?
Jim: That may be the best question this week. What can the Big Ten produce?
Obviously, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State are all elite teams and ready to take their positions in the NCAA tournament. The two bubble teams, Notre Dame and Michigan State, are on opposite sides of the PairWise bubble. Notre Dame jumped to the positive position, sitting in 14th, taking four of six points from Michigan including an overtime road win on Saturday.
But Notre Dame feels tenuous to me still. The Irish are one game above .500 so the No. 1 thing they must do is survive a best-of-three quarterfinal series against Michigan State this weekend. Lose two games to none, season is over as Notre Dame will be under .500. Lose two games to one and they’ll be exactly at .500 and tournament eligible but likely will drop enough that they can’t earn an at-large bid. The Irish have to advance and probably need to sweep to feel secure heading to the Big Ten semis.
Michigan State is the other end of that weekend series and is in considerably more dire straits than Notre Dame. Michigan State basically has to sweep this weekend AND likely advance to the Big Ten title game to have any chance at an at-large bid. Even then, there’s not guarantees.
So as fantastic a season it has been for the Big Ten, it’s quite possible that four teams may be the ceiling for the conference.
I might as well take this chance to ask your thoughts on another at-large team on the bubble and that’s Alaska. The Nanooks currently sit at No. 12 in the PairWise, which this time of year usually feels somewhat solid. But as an independent, they’ll play just two more games against Lindenwood this weekend without any chance to improve their position.
How do you see this Alaska team’s hopes? Obviously two wins are a must this weekend. But even then, there seems to be ways that the Nanooks could fall in the RPI and PairWise. Think they’ll make the field of 16?
Ed: Wow. Thanks, Jim! I got taken to task on Twitter for our Weekend Review podcast “selling” on the Nanooks and also for all 50 USCHO poll voters for discounting them. And now you ask me that.
Alaska did exactly what it needed to do against Arizona State. The two wins against a team with a good strength of schedule helped, but victories over Denver, Omaha, and Notre Dame are really what have boosted the Nanooks to No. 12 in the PairWise.
At this point, I’d be foolish to say that Alaska can’t make it to the tournament. As you mentioned, they will need to sweep Lindenwood this weekend. Because the Lions are near the bottom of D-I in strength of schedule, wins won’t help the PairWise much, but losses could be devastating. I’m expecting Alaska to get the sweep and keep practicing. Then Erik Largen’s team will need to watch the six conference tournaments – well, five of them – and keep their fingers crossed that there aren’t too many upsets.
It’s no small task to get to the NCAAs as an independent team. Alaska has played the schedule it needed to and won the games it wasn’t expected to – except by Nanooks fans. That’s gotten them almost all the way there.
ECAC Hockey gets playoffs underway this weekend and the NCHC is one weekend away. Are there teams in those conferences who are good candidates to pull off upsets?
Jim: Well, I’ll thank you back as no writer ever really wants to develop bulletin board material by saying that some team with home ice in a conference tournament can’t advance.
I said it on our podcast (and I know you didn’t ask about Big Ten) so I’ll repeat it. I think that Wisconsin minimally gives Michigan a series. Yes, the Badgers have struggled all year. And yes, they just won their first Big Ten road game in what seems like forever. But Michigan is winless in four and could actually be primed to be picked off in one of the first two games. And if you force a Game 3, anything is possible, no?
In the ECAC, I feel like Yale could play the role of spoiler. At times, this Yale team has been horrible this year. But they played a scoreless tie with RPI and lost 4-2 not too long ago and, moreover, the Bulldogs beat both Princeton and Colgate in the last couple of weeks.
I also wonder about whether Reid Cashman can get his Dartmouth team up to challenge Colgate. Cashman had tons of playoff success at Quinnipiac.
As for the NCHC, I keep asking, “Why can’t North Dakota make noise in the tournament?” That should also answer your question.
Who do you like in an underdog role this weekend?
Ed: Well, as long as we’re going to be bulletin board fodder, I might as well jump in all the way.
Any close matchups are ripe for upsets. In the ECAC, the No. 8 Union vs. No. 9 Princeton strikes me as the one most likely. I’ve seen both teams this season and was more impressed with Princeton. Those first-round single-elimination games are tough. That conference really should consider a first-round best-of-three format.
In the NCHC, I can see Minnesota Duluth winning a road series. But that means they’d have to beat St. Cloud, Western Michigan, or Omaha. I guess when the final weekend has been played and we know the bracket I can revisit this, as only Miami at Denver is decided.
Elsewhere, I would not be surprised if the Notre Dame-Michigan State and Ohio State-Penn State series ended up being upsets, as the teams are so closely matched, but there’s not a lot of momentum for any of those teams right now. Well, maybe Notre Dame has some working after its weekend with Michigan.
I don’t see any major upsets in the CCHA. But don’t be surprised if some underdogs take it to three games. I think Michigan Tech advances, but St. Thomas is playing well enough to make a Sunday game necessary.
Lastly, Atlantic Hockey perennially has upsets. I think the two teams most likely to upset the higher seeds are Niagara at Sacred Heart and Holy Cross in a 1:05 ET matinee series at AIC. The Purple Eagles have had some good road wins and the Crusaders have had a really strong 2023, save for a sweep at the hands of Canisius last weekend.
The biggest upset of all would be if we had none. The fun part is prognosticating which ones.
