After a hotly contested regular season, the first round of the Big Ten playoffs begins this week and it’s nearly impossible to predict who will advance to the semifinals.
First-place Minnesota gets a first-round bye. The quarterfinal best-of-three series has No. 7 Wisconsin at No. 2 Michigan, No. 6 Penn State at No. 3 Ohio State and No. 5 Michigan State at No. 4 Notre Dame.
And some of that, hockey fans, is screwy – not in any way underhanded or unfair, nor is there an implication here that teams don’t deserve to be exactly where they are right now
It was just a weird season.
There are two outliers to the weirdness that was the Big Ten regular season: Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The Golden Gophers have been at the top of the Big Ten standings for so long that it would be easy to forget that they didn’t start the season that way. Minnesota split its opening B1G series with Ohio State (Oct. 28-29) and entered the standings in fourth place.
After eight conference games had been played, Minnesota ascended to first place after a road sweep of Michigan Nov. 17-18. The Gophers never relinquished that position for the remainder of the season.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, never climbed out of last place. The Badgers earned their first conference win in their seventh game of the season, a 6-3 win over Michigan Dec. 2.
The Badgers finish the regular season with just six wins, having beaten each of their Big Ten opponents once this season.
In retrospect, Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to have been locked in place for the entirety of the season. Everyone else, though – well, that’s a ride.
There isn’t enough time to tell the stories of every team between Minnesota and Wisconsin in the Big Ten standings, but there are a couple of ways to illustrate the immense weirdness of this season.
First is this, the standings after six of the league’s teams had played four conference games. There are three teams at or near the top with three wins and a loss apiece with Michigan State in the middle of the standings and both Michigan and Notre Dame floating just above Wisconsin.
The crazy crowding for conference points began early but note the overall records. Early on, the Big Ten was establishing itself as a dominant conference.
Here are the standings after the third weekend in January. Everyone but Michigan and Wisconsin had played 16 games.
Minnesota is clearly running away with things at that point, two teams are 10 points behind and tied for second, and there are nine points – three games – separating those two teams with sixth-place Michigan.
The Fighting Irish and the Wolverines are still hovering above last-place Wisconsin at that point. Granted, the Fighting Irish and Wolverines had distanced themselves from last place, but they hadn’t distanced themselves from finishing higher than fifth place a month before the end of the season.
A quick glance to the side of those standings, too, shows how successful four teams – Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State – were in nonconference play. Each remains among the top 10 in the PairWise Rankings heading into this weekend.
The second way to illustrate the craziness of this season is to look at how Michigan finished second. After having played 14 games, the Wolverines were in sixth place with 18 points.
A week later, Michigan was tied for fifth place with Michigan State, each with 24 points. Michigan was still, though, only position above last-place Wisconsin.
On week later, both Michigan and Michigan State had played themselves into a four-way points tie with Ohio State and Penn State – each in second place, each with 30 points.
A week later – mid-February, mind you – the Wolverines had sole possession of second place after sweeping Michigan State. The Wolverines entered last weekend tied with Ohio State for second place and managed to hold onto sole possession of second at the end of the season with 38 points, two ahead of the Buckeyes.
The Wolverines finished in second despite going 0-2-2 in their last four games of the season, playing against two of the teams chasing them most ardently, Ohio State and Notre Dame. And they lost shootouts to each team, too.
That’s just one wild ride. Consider that both Michigan and Notre Dame remained below home-ice contention for most of the season and that they’re both hosting first-round playoff series. Also consider the weirdness of Penn State – No. 9 in the PWR – traveling in the first round.
My favorite feel-good oddity of the season: Michigan State’s single week at the top of the Big Ten standings, when the Spartans had gone 4-1-1 with an extra shootout point after six games.
What forces in the universe must be aligned for each series this weekend to finish in a two-game, home-team sweep? I have neither patience for math, nor the astrology chops to handle that kind of calculation.
Here’s a look at the quarterfinal matches.
No. 7 Wisconsin at No. 2 Michigan
Wisconsin comes into this series on a high note, having defeated Penn State 2-1 on the road in their final game of the regular season. The Badgers went 3-5-0 in February, but they’ve split each of their last three series.
Michigan was 4-2-2 in February, but the four wins were the first four games of the month. The Wolverines were 0-2-2 in their last four, with their last regular-season game an overtime home loss to Notre Dame.
Michigan leads this all-time series 86-67-14 and is 12-4-0 against Wisconsin in regular-season play for the last four seasons. This year, the Wolverines have won three straight against the Badgers after Wisconsin took the first contest 6-3 (Dec. 2).
Here are some quick comparative stats.
- Scoring offense: Wisconsin, 2.50 goals per game (tied 44th nationally); Michigan, 3.88 (fifth)
- Scoring defense: Wisconsin, 3.32 goals allowed per game (tied 53rd); Michigan 3.12 (42nd)
- Power play: Wisconsin, 21.5% (23rd); Michigan 23.2% (16th)
- Penalty kill: Wisconsin, 78.4% (41st); Michigan, 77.4% (50th)
- Top scorer: Wisconsin, freshman Cruz Lucious (10-21—31); Michigan, freshman Adam Fantilli (20-30—50)
- Top goal scorer: Wisconsin, senior Brock Caufield (11); Michigan, freshman Adam Fantilli (20)
- Goaltender: Wisconsin, senior Jared Moe (.901 SV%, 3.16 GAA); Michigan, junior Erik Portillo (.908 SV%, 3.01 GAA)
The last time these two teams met in the Big Ten playoffs in 2019, the Badgers had home ice and they swept their quarterfinal series against the Wolverines, 5-4 and 4-3.
Wisconsin hasn’t taken two games in a weekend this season.
Last year, the Wolverines went 4-0 in the Big Ten playoffs to capture their second championship. Michigan has advanced to the conference title game three times.
No. 6 Penn State at No. No. 3 Ohio State
Neither of these teams had the February they wanted to, beginning with the opening weekend of the month when they split against each other in Columbus. The Nittany Lions scored six goals that weekend to the Buckeyes’ seven.
Penn State played six games last month, going 3-3-0 for the stretch and finishing the regular season with a 2-1 home loss to Wisconsin last weekend.
The Buckeyes were 2-4-2 in February, having dropped the final two games of the season to Minnesota on the road last weekend, a series in which the Gophers outscored the Buckeyes 9-2.
Ohio State leads this series 23-17-4 all time with a 12-10-2 edge in Columbus. The teams split the season series this year, with each taking a game in the other’s barn. Ohio State is 7-5-2 against Penn State in the last four seasons.
Here are some quick comparative stats.
- Scoring offense: Penn State, 3.41 goals per game, 10th nationally); Ohio State, 3.24, (tied 14th)
- Scoring defense: Penn State, 2.79 (28th); Ohio State (2.50, tied 15th)
- Power play: Penn State, 15.5% (50th); Ohio State, 22.1% (21st)
- Penalty kill: Penn State, 74.7% (58th); Ohio State, 89.4% (first)
- Top scorer: Penn State, seniors Kevin Wall (14-13—27) and Ture Linden (10-17—27); Ohio State, freshman Stephen Halliday (8-26—34)
- Top goal scorer: Penn State, senior Kevin Wall (14); Ohio State, freshman David Burnside (13)
- Goaltender: Penn State, junior Liam Souliere (.910 SV%), 2.53 GAA); Ohio State, sophomore Jakub Dobes (.916 SV%, 2.35 GAA)
Last year, Penn State ended Ohio State’s season when the Nittany Lions took the playoff quarterfinal series in Columbus. The Buckeyes won the first game 4-3, but Penn State took the next two, 3-2 and 2-1.
Penn State has a seven-year Big Ten semifinal streak on the line this weekend, and the Nittany Lions have advanced to the semifinals in eight of the conference’s nine seasons. The Nittany Lions haven’t lost a best-of-three quarterfinal series since the Big Ten adopted the current playoff format in 2018.
Ohio State is one of two Big Ten teams looking to capture its first-ever B1G conference championship.
No. 5 Michigan State at No. 4 Notre Dame
For the Spartans, the regular season ended two weeks ago with a split series at Wisconsin. The weekend resulted in a pair of 6-2 games and Michigan State on the losing end of their last regular-season game of the season. The Spartans went 3-3-0 in February, beginning with a weekend sweep of Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish also played six games in February, fighting their way to home ice with a record of 2-2-2 and important shootout extra points against Ohio State and Michigan. The Irish ended their regular season on a very high note, an overtime road win against the Wolverines.
Michigan State leads this all-time series 68-57-16, but Notre Dame hold a 32-26-11 home advantage. In the last four years, the teams are even at 6-6-4. This season, Michigan State was 2-1-1 against Notre Dame.
Here are some quick comparative stats.
- Scoring offense: Michigan State, 2.88 goals per game (27th nationally); Notre Dame, 2.35 (tied 52nd)
- Scoring defense: Michigan State, 3.09 (41st); Notre Dame, 2.62 (22nd)
- Power play: Michigan State, 19.2% (34th); Notre Dame, 19.7% (31st)
- Penalty kill: Michigan State, 80.0% (35th); Notre Dame, 75.4% (57th)
- Top scorer: Michigan State, senior Nicolas Muller (7-22—29); Notre Dame, graduate student Chayse Primeau (8-14—22)
- Top goal scorer: Michigan State, senior Jagger Joshua (13); Notre Dame, graduate student Chayse Primeau (8) and senior Trevor Janicke (8)
- Goaltender: Michigan State, Dylan St. Cyr (.914 SV%, 2.83 GAA); Notre Dame, senior Ryan Bischel (.932 SV%, 2.39 GAA)
The Irish have more than advancement to the semifinals riding on this series. Currently, Notre Dame sits at No. 14 in the PairWise Rankings, and losses to Michigan State may end the season for good for the Irish.
Notre Dame captured their only Big Ten tournament championship the season they joined the league (2017-18).
The Spartans are looking for their first-ever Big Ten playoff win, having gone 0-13-0 since the league’s first season. Michigan State is one of two teams still in the hunt for a B1G conference playoff title.
