Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Dan: A good Tuesday to all of you out there, and an especially Happy Tuesday to those of us on the East Coast preparing for a battering ram nor’easter. We’re getting this thing going on a Monday, and the hot rumor is that a foot of snow is about to dump its way into my front yard before lunchtime tomorrow.
The good news: my kids love snowbanks and playing in the snow. The bad news: they’ll have to do it in a house where my work laptop instantaneously becomes everyone’s favorite toy.
Onto the hockey and teams holding serve after the week’s results pressured the PairWise Rankings. Boston College remained No. 1 despite losing to Boston University in the Beanpot semifinals, and North Dakota remained at No. 2 with a bye, one week after a sweep of Miami brought its unbeaten streak to seven games (6-0-1). For what it’s worth, that game could’ve been much worse after North Dakota dropped a 2-1 lead into a 4-2 deficit in the second period.
I’ve got this uneasy feeling about the race atop the rankings because it feels too jammed. Maine’s overtime loss to Providence dropped the Black Bears to No. 6 and upended the race for a regional, and UMass snuck into the 10-slot by sweeping past Connecticut. Cornell jumped into 13th and is now breathing down Quinnipiac’s neck.
The race is tightening, and while it’s exciting, I’ve got the feeling that something is going to break things open in a big way. Take a 30,000-foot view and hit me with the perspective as the Beanpot championship round gets underway in Boston.
Paula: Dan, with the exception of the clouds carrying that storm your way, I don’t have the sense that anything is going to break open at all this week or for the remainder of the regular season.
Yes, it’s close at the top of the PairWise, as tight as the race is for the regular-season title in several conferences, but in the second half of the season, every bit of movement among the top teams in the PWR feels glacial to me: slow, steady, incremental, and in some cases inevitable.
A few weeks ago, I would have put money against any team from the Big Ten earning a top seed at any regional, but the sustained solid play of Michigan State and Wisconsin may prove me wrong. I also would have put money on Minnesota finishing lower than 10th in the PWR, but the Golden Gophers are playing some of the best hockey in all of D-I right now and look to me to be on solid postseason ground.
What seems inevitable to me is that either BC or North Dakota will be the top seed overall and BU will be among the top three. That’s as far as I can go in terms of predications, especially with Michigan State ending the regular season on the road in Wisconsin and how wide open the B1G postseason tournament may be.
I can see Maine, Denver, Minnesota and Quinnipiac finishing in the PWR pretty much where they are now – in Nos. 6 through 9 – given their remaining schedules.
Where I see a lot of volatility is from Nos. 13 through 17, which includes seven teams with Cornell and St. Cloud tied at No. 13, Michigan (15), New Hampshire (16) and three teams – Colorado College, Omaha, Arizona State – tied at No. 17. There is going to be more than one good team sitting out the NCAA tournament this year. It would be wild to me if it were Arizona State, a team with 20 wins. And No. 22 RIT needs an autobid to play in the tournament in spite of having 19 wins already this season.
I can’t remember, Dan, a season with this many teams playing such good, good hockey. We hate the word “parity” here at USCHO because it’s so often misused. Parity doesn’t mean “equally good,” strictly speaking, but I think we’re seeing a season in which there is just a ton of outstanding hockey being played.
Dan: Outstanding hockey is definitely true! I look at even what I’m witnessing in ECAC with Cornell chasing down Quinnipiac, which looked like it was running away with the league at the halfway point of the season. The Big Red are now a weekend’s work away from jumping on the Bobcats and making the Cleary Cup race something worth watching with its ensuing fallout in the national picture.
The hockey aspect really shines a light on one thing for me, and that’s the sheer volume and depth of talent that we’re seeing on every single one of these teams. Fan voting remains open for the Hobey Baker Award, and while that’s something of a popularity contest among fans, the vast majority of guys nominated for the award are turning out phenomenal seasons. It’s a deeper talent pool than the years where I’d see schools represented and chuckle about their names being on the list, and I think it’s creating a scenario where the trip to the Hobey Hat Trick is much more competitive than most years.
From a frontrunner standpoint, it feels like Gabe Perrault and Macklin Celebrini are likely to lead the pack from the eastern schools, but a Cutter Gauthier, Collin Graf, Lane Hutson, Josh Nadeau and Bradly Nadeau could easily sneak into the conversation. Tommy Scarfone is a goalie from Atlantic Hockey who is posting some incredible numbers for arguably the league’s best teams.
I readily admit the names are off the top of my head, but before we take a deeper dive, who are the names on the top of your head who you think are ready to burst into the Hobey conversation?
Paula: Honestly, all of my own top picks are from the east, including Perrault, Gauthier, Hutson and Josh Nadeau.
One of my favorite players this season has been Denver defenseman Zeev Buium. His hockey sense is incredible, he’s good on both sides of the puck, he’s fearless – but he’s a rookie. Given the way I think he’ll develop at Denver, he’ll be in the mix in 2025.
I don’t really see any Hobey dark horses – it seems as predictable to me as does the way the PWR is shaping up – but there are other players worth mentioning. I like Minnesota’s Jimmy Snuggerud and Michigan’s Rutger McGroarty, but I don’t see either of them contending because of the seasons their teams have had in a very, very tough Big Ten conference.
Wisconsin goaltender Kyle McClellan is worthy of Hobey consideration, but I doubt very much that any goaltender will win the Hobey in the foreseeable future, given the talent at other positions and the existence of the Richter award.
Given the seasons that so many top players are having, I’d be surprised if the Hobey went to someone who plays for a team without the word “Boston” in its school’s name.
But you make reference to league play with Cornell chasing down Quinnipiac, and that my friend is an area where very little seems inevitable. With conference postseason play beginning as early as March 2 in Atlantic Hockey and as late as March 15 in the NCHC, there is anywhere from two weeks to a month remaining in regular season play.
It’s only in the ECAC where a single top team has a significant points lead over its nearest opponent. Quinnipiac is eight points up on Cornell, but the Big Red has a game in hand on the Bobcats. Quinnipiac closes out the season against five of the six opponents Cornell will still face.
The Bobcats are 4-1-0 this season against their remaining opponents; Cornell is 6-0 against theirs. I don’t think that Cornell catches Quinnipiac, but there is a slim possibility that it happens.
For obvious reasons, I’m intensely interested in that season-ending B1G series between Michigan State and Wisconsin. Anyone who says that they thought from the start that the B1G season would come down to those two teams is a liar – but what a season of hockey they’ve given us. Five points behind the Spartans, Wisconsin has two games in hand on both Michigan State and third-place Minnesota. Eleven points out of first, the Golden Gophers are mathematically in the hunt, but not practically.
A point behind Minnesota State, St. Thomas has two games in hand on the Mavericks, as does Bemidji State three points out of first place and Bowling Green five points out –and Minnesota State ends its season at Bemidji. The CCHA is crazy.
How do you see conferences playing out?
Dan: My opinion is honestly very different from when I talked conferences a couple of months ago, but I think some of the same rules apply across the board.
Nothing is going to be set in stone. Even Hockey East is arguably wide open, and I’d put my Monopoly money on Maine making a run past BC or BU by the time the league gets to TD Garden. I’d also throw a flyer down on UMass since the Minutemen are sneaky good, and I’d honestly take them over Providence at a time when they’re arguably passing the Friars in the national numbers – provided they even get to Boston. The league itself still has to deal with UConn and Northeastern, and I’m convinced Jerry Keefe’s team is primed for a major run down the stretch.
ECAC? We’ve covered that at length, but this feels like a year where anything’s possible since the parity is paired with a single-game elimination in the first round. Truly anything is possible this year, and it’s worth noting – which is going to come up several times in the next month – that Quinnipiac won its only ECAC championship in 2016 despite being the undisputed cream of the crop. Every time a team rises, it falls almost immediately, and this is a year where I’d lay some good attention on the six Ivies if someone decided to get hot – Harvard, Dartmouth and Brown especially.
Out west? I don’t even know. The CCHA is chaos right now, and I’m rooting for St. Thomas because I think the NCAA rule regarding transition teams is archaic and draconian. The NCHC? Give me anyone. The Big Ten? Tell me if you don’t see four or five teams capable of winning the whole thing right now.
Atlantic Hockey? Bentley’s going to win it. Mark it down. It’s going to happen at home, and I’m going to have the broadcast of a lifetime.
Last question from me – as we near postseason time, the single-elimination conversation starts to inevitably come back around. I’m still very vocal about wanting more hockey and wanting best-of-three weekends throughout the entire postseason, but I understand that this simply isn’t a realistic expectation. Tell me your thoughts. Best of one? Best of three? Round robin? What’s an ideal way to settle the score once we get to the playoffs?
Paula: I really like best-of-three quarterfinal weekends. I really dislike every team in any conference with eight or more members making the tournament.
If a conference has more than eight teams, the top eight should make it with a first-round, best-of-three weekend. The semifinals should be single elimination. There should never be a third-place game.
That’s my playoff bible right there.
I’m also in favor of more uniformity in terms of when conference playoffs begin, league to league.
The Big Ten does the best it can with seven teams. The regular-season champ earns a first-round bye and the remaining teams play a best-of three weekend, followed by a weekend of single-elimination semifinals, followed by the championship game a week later. I dislike the three-week format, but until and unless the Big Ten picks up another team, this is it.
And like so many others, I am all in on regionals being hosted on campuses. I understand the logistic difficulties, but I’ve spent too many weekends in empty, atmosphere-less arenas where players as well as fans deserve a much better college hockey experience.
