Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Jim: Well, Ed, we begin this week’s TMQ talking about a lot of carnage among the top teams in the USCHO.com poll.
The top 10 teams from last Monday’s poll went a collective 8-9-2 this past week with North Dakota, Wisconsin and Maine all suffering two-game sweeps (Wisconsin did earn a single point for losing in overtime).
Maybe it’s just the time of year. Every team is on the hunt for playoff positioning and the intensity of every matchup is ramped up. But some of these losses for top teams were pretty significant.
North Dakota was blown out of Robson Arena at Colorado College, 6-2 and 7-1, giving CC the season sweep in all four games against the Fighting Hawks. Maine lost to its rival, New Hampshire, by identical 5-2 scores and coach Ben Barr admitted after Saturday’s loss his team got its butts kicked.
The team that probably enjoyed the weekend the most was Michigan State, which didn’t play and simply got to watch all of the teams around it in the USCHO poll struggle.
Did this weekend strike you as strange as it did me?
Ed: It really did seem strange to me too, Jim.
You’re not surprised to see results like this in the first week or two of the season, especially when poll positions are largely educated guesses based on last season’s results and what players have returned.
The two wins by Colorado College are probably the most significant of the weekend. The Tigers are now just four points behind North Dakota and three in back of St. Cloud State in the NCHC standings with six games left in the regular season.
The wins also vaulted CC in the PairWise, moving them all the way up to No. 11, solidly inside the bubble.
Michigan State not only got to watch all of this from afar, but the Spartans also moved into fourth in the PairWise. That would be a regional top seed for them if the season ends that way. That was helped out by Ohio State getting five of six points at home from Wisconsin, dropping the Badgers to sixth in the PairWise.
The Spartans have a four-point lead over Wisconsin with four games left for each. The final weekend sends Michigan State to the Kohl Center in what might just decide the Big Ten regular season.
That New Hampshire sweep over Maine caught my eye, and as I look at a few numbers, I wonder if I’ve been overestimating an undoubtedly good Black Bears team. They’re just 5-5-0 in their last 10, all in conference. While they’re 10-1-2 at Alfond Arena, they’re just 7-7-0 on the road (plus a neutral-site victory).
Should Maine fans be concerned about this last stretch?
Jim: I don’t know if it’s red flag time for the Black Bears but this weekend, combined with a loss to Providence in OT that disappointed Ben Barr a week earlier and another defeat at Northeastern that was spurred on by a major penalty in the third, seems to have this team that was trucking along wobbling a bit.
Part of this could just be inexperience. No player on this team has been to an NCAA tournament or to the TD Garden for the Hockey East tournament. They have a solid foundation but now need to prove they can play in big-game situations.
The good news is this Maine team is guided by a head coach in Ben Barr who is a proven winner as an assistant.
Although not in the top 10, a team that met a bit of carnage on the weekend that can be included is UMass. The Minutemen got swept by a red-hot Boston College team. And while you wouldn’t think two losses to the nation’s top team would be too harmful, the razor-thin margins for teams near the PairWise bubble dropped UMass to 15 and below the current cut line.
While UMass falling out of the top 14 is eye opening for me, I’m equally shocked to see just how volatile the PairWise bubble is this late in the season.
Ed: And not only is the PairWise volatile along the edge of the bubble, it’s also surprising how almost nothing is a complete lock.
Typically by late February, we’d see three or four teams definitely in. As of today’s column, only unanimous USCHO No. 1 and PairWise No. 1 Boston College is in the NCAA tournament no matter what. A few other teams are almost certain, but still not clinched.
But back to the bubble. There’s a big drop off in RPI after New Hampshire, so while it’s a mathematical possibility for teams below UNH, it’s going to take a great run.
The teams right along the cut line of 14 are another story. It looks like teams like Colorado College, Providence, St. Cloud, Cornell, Michigan, UMass, New Hampshire and perhaps Omaha will all find themselves battling for the last three spots in the tournament come conference playoff time.
Just a week ago we were talking about Cornell as an at-large and two teams from the ECAC in the tournament, maybe three. The Big Red’s tie with Yale this past weekend may loom large if Cornell misses the NCAAs.
Jim: I think you’ve just identified the biggest problem for teams that aren’t playing in NCHC, B1G or Hockey East. It is difficult for those teams to make up any ground with wins in their conference and it is too easy to lose ground for something like a tie against an inferior opponent.
On another topic, it shocked me this weekend to see just how close the CCHA standings have become. Bemidji State is now on top but leading a trio of St. Thomas, Minnesota State and Bowling Green – yes, Bowling Green – by just two points with two weekends left.
The Falcons are the hottest team in the CCHA and are almost in the best position to win the league regular-season title after a very slow start to this season.
This would be a great turnaround story for Ty Eigner who was suspended by the school to begin the season and now might bring home some hardware before all is said and done.
Ed: That would be fitting for Eigner and BGSU after things were cleared after what seemed to be a disaster for the program.
There are also tight races in both Atlantic Hockey and ECAC Hockey, but not only at the top.
Atlantic Hockey comes down to a two-horse race for first place and the top seed. RIT needs just one point out of home-and-home with Canisius for a tie for first and a top seed in the league. A surging Holy Cross can keep its chances alive in its final game of the season Thursday against Bentley. A win moves the Crusaders into first place pending results from the weekend for the Tigers.
But the rest of that conference is in play for a first-round bye or home ice in the first round. Six teams still can get one of three remaining first-round byes heading into the last weekend of the regular season.
With all 12 teams eligible for the ECAC playoffs, the two coveted positions are in the top four for a bye and in the next four for home ice in the first round. Only Quinnipiac has locked up the first-round bye (though Cornell is close) and everyone else is still mathematically eligible with three or four games left.
Buckle up. It’s going to be quite a ride no matter which conference you follow.
