Another season, another playoff format for Atlantic Hockey.
Gone is last year’s model which saw only the top eight teams qualify. Now that we’re back to 11 teams, everyone makes it, but the road for seeds six through 11 gets a little trickier.
The format is as follows:
First Round, March 2
Single elimination
No. 11 seed at No. 6 seed
No. 10 seed at No. 7 seed
No. 9 seed at No. 8 seed
Quarterfinals, March 8-10
Best-of-three series
Lowest surviving seed at No. 1 seed
Next lowest surviving at No. 2 seed
Highest surviving seed at No. 3 seed
No. 5 seed at No. 4 seed
Semifinals, March 15-17
Best-of-three series
Lowest remaining seed at highest remaining seed
Second-lowest remaining seed at second-highest remaining seed
Championship Game
March 23
Lowest remaining seed at highest remaining seed
Making the first round single elimination game removing any room for error for the bottom six teams.
The final stretch
With one weekend to go in the regular season, there is much to be decided. Holy Cross and Sacred Heart have only one game remaining, everyone else has a pair of games to close out the season.
What we know:
– RIT can finish no lower than second, and can clinch at least a tie for its second consecutive DeGregorio Cup and top seed with a single point this weekend against Canisius, or if Holy Cross fails to secure a regulation win against Bentley. The Tigers have a first-round bye and will host a quarterfinal series.
– Sacred Heart and Holy Cross have clinched a first-round bye and will host a quarterfinal series.
– Air Force, American International, Bentley, Niagara, and Canisius are all still in the running for a first-round bye, but Canisius would need a lot of help. All have clinched at least home ice in the first round.
– Mercyhurst, Army West Point, and Robert Morris will be on the road in the first round.
After this weekend’s games, expect tiebreakers to come into play to determine tournament seedings. They are:
1. Head-to-head winning percentage (note: this is different from points won as overtime wins count as wins and shootouts count as ties regardless of the outcome).
2. Conference wins (note: includes overtime wins).
3. Head-to-head goal differential.
4. Goals allowed in head-to-head competition.
5. Head-to-head winning percentage in games against teams starting with the No. 1 seed down to the No. 10 seed.
6. Goal differential in games against teams starting with the No. 1 seed down to the No. 10 seed.
Here’s my take on possible outcomes this weekend. Any errors in calculations are mine.
ROCHESTER INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Currently: First
Games remaining: Home vs. Canisius, at Canisius
Possible seed: First-Second
Outlook: The Tigers have reached the 20-win plateau for the second consecutive year. But at 25th in the PairWise, RIT needs to win the league to make the NCAA tournament.
HOLY CROSS
Currently: Second
Games remaining: Home vs. Bentley
Possible seed: First-Third
Outlook: Holy Cross is the hottest team in the league right now and one of the hottest in the country, currently on a seven-game winning streak. The Crusaders are the only team that can catch RIT.
SACRED HEART
Currently: Third
Games remaining: at Bentley
Possible seed: Second-Fourth
Outlook: A sweep at the hands of Holy Cross last weekend ended the Pioneers’ quest for their first regular season title, but SHU has clinched a first-round bye and home ice in the quarterfinals.
AIR FORCE
Currently: Tied for fourth
Games remaining: Home vs. Robert Morris (2)
Possible seed: Third-Eighth
Outlook: After finishing in tenth last season and missing the postseason, the Falcons are in the thick of things and have the inside track to a bye.
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL
Currently: Tied for fourth
Games remaining: At Army (2)
Possible seed: Fourth-Eighth
Outlook: The Yellow Jackets have been devastated by the injury bug in the past few weeks, and have dropped in the standings as a result of a 1-3-2 slide in their last six.
NIAGARA
Currently: Tied for fourth
Games remaining: At Mercyhurst, home vs. Mercyhurst
Possible seed: Fourth-Eighth
Outlook: The Purple Eagles have shown they can beat the top teams in the conference and will be a tough draw in the playoffs, especially if they can lock up a bye.
BENTLEY
Currently: Seventh
Games remaining: At Holy Cross, home vs. Sacred Heart
Possible seed: Fourth-Eighth
Outlook: The Falcons started last weekend in fourth. But they were idle and saw Air Force, AIC, and Niagara leap past them. A bye is still possible, but Bentley will need some help.
CANISIUS
Currently: Eighth
Games remaining: At RIT, home vs. RIT
Possible seed: Fourth-Eighth
Outlook: The defending champs have a very (very) slim chance at a bye but are set to host a first-round game.
MERCYHURST
Currently: Ninth
Games remaining: At Niagara, home vs. Niagara
Possible seed: Ninth-11th
Outlook: The Lakers have shown that they can knock off teams at the top of the standings, and will need more of that as they are locked into a road game in the first round.
ARMY WEST POINT
Currently: 10th
Games remaining: Home vs. AIC (2)
Possible seed: Ninth-11th
Outlook: The Black Knights have split their last three series, but will need to win a single game to advance to the quarterfinals. How they do against AIC will determine their first-round opponent.
ROBERT MORRIS
Currently: 11th
Games remaining: At Air Force (2)
Possible seed: Ninth-11th
Outlook: We expected growing pains from this rebuilt program, but the cliche is true for this league that anyone can beat anyone. There’s no easy outs and an upset in the first round wouldn’t be a big surprise.
