Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Ed: Jim, we saw the last four regular-season champions crowned last weekend, and all but Hockey East and the NCHC are now in the playoffs.
The top two teams in the Big Ten and CCHA met to decide the regular-season titles. (Hats off to the schedule makers in those two conferences!)
Let’s start with the CCHA.
Bemidji State needed only two points on the weekend, but clinched in a convincing way over Minnesota State with a pair of shutouts, 6-0 and 2-0. Tom Serratore’s Beavers have been terrific down the stretch, unbeaten in their last eight games and picking up 21 out of 24 league points. Bemidji also only allowed 14 goals in those contests while piling up 31, a big turnaround from some lopsided numbers before semester break.
Should the Beavers win the CCHA – their only route into the NCAA tournament – they’d likely be the 15th or 16th overall seed. While Bemidji would be a big underdog against Boston College or Boston University, I’m certain they wouldn’t underestimate a Tom Serratore-coached team playing this well.
Jim: I think the CCHA championship is the best regular-season story this year.
Bemidji State went 7-1-2 down the stretch to win the title, its first since 2017. And Tom Serratore guided this team down the stretch to win this title, despite the significant feedback I received from CCHA fans that told me the Beavers had no chance.
You mentioned that three other teams clinched this weekend, which included Michigan State, North Dakota and Boston College.
All three were impressive, but I have to talk about BC, which has won 12 straight Hockey East games and beat New Hampshire 1-0 on Sunday to clinch the Eagles’ 18th league title, expanding their record.
BC is proving they can win games in multiple ways. They can score, no doubt, but on Sunday they proved they can stop teams as well.
Is BC the most complete team out there?
Ed: I will say without a doubt Boston College is the most complete team. I said, “Yes!” to myself immediately when you asked and then I decided to look at some numbers to see if I could back that up.
Individually, BC has the top three scorers in the nation – all Hobey Baker nominees – in Will Smith (17 goals and 37 assists for 54 points), national goal-scoring leader Cutter Gauthier (31-20–51), and Gabe Perrault (15-35–50). Plus Ryan Leonard is not far behind at 25-23–48. Rookie goalie Jacob Fowler is No. 8 in goals against and tied for fifth in save percentage.
Overall, Boston College is second in the nation in scoring and fourth in team defense. The Eagles have the No. 3 power play at 27.94% and the top penalty kill at an astronomical 90.08%.
So whether it’s a gut reaction or a dissection of the numbers, I have to not only call them complete, but maybe the biggest favorite to win the tournament that we’ve seen in quite some time. They’re all but a lock for the No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and have already sewn up a No. 1 regional seed.
At this point, BC, BU, North Dakota, Denver, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are the teams that are locks for the NCAAs. As we head into playoffs and into Hockey East’s last week, there are still up to eight at-large berths up for grabs.
Last weekend saw some teams help their cause and others slip into dangerous territory in the PairWise. Who gained the most from last weekend?
Jim: That’s a difficult question.
Honestly, Boston College probably did the most, winning twice in regulation against New Hampshire while No. 2 in the PairWise, Boston University was idle. The Eagles lead in the RPI is now greater than .0200, which virtually anoints the Eagles as the number one overall seed.
But two teams who really helped their cause were Massachusetts with a pair of overtime wins versus UMass Lowell and Colorado College, which tied and beat Minnesota Duluth.
Neither of these teams took all six points, but honestly at the PairWise bubble, that doesn’t matter. Not losing is the key for every bubble team right now and UMass moved to 12th overall while Colorado College is now 11th overall. Math says UMass still has a better chance to make the tournament, but both teams did themselves well with this past weekend.
Teams that did not help their cause included St. Cloud State, Western Michigan and Cornell. All are at or near the current bubble.
What concerns you most about these teams?
Ed: Let’s start with St. Cloud State and Western Michigan. The Huskies can finish anywhere from second to fourth in the NCHC regular season, while the Broncos will finish either fifth or sixth. So it’s possible that they could meet in St. Cloud for the conference quarterfinals. Wins by Western Michigan would be more valuable as the road team and a series like that could make or break either team in the PairWise if swept.
But this coming weekend, St. Cloud visits Minnesota Duluth and Western Michigan is home against Miami to wrap up the season. The Broncos should be expected to prevail against Miami, while SCSU and UMD have a bit of a rivalry match, even in a somewhat down year for the Bulldogs. St. Cloud as the road team would really help itself with a sweep, while WMU gets a little less out of two wins as the home team against a lower-ranked opponent. In either case, anything less than a win and an overtime win probably means treading water in the PairWise for both.
Cornell still has a mathematical path to an at-large bid, but it’s only about a 4% chance. The Big Red had the opportunity to move up in the PWR, but a loss to Union on Friday coupled with an overtime loss to Clarkson and a tie with St. Lawrence on a north country swing the weekend before really makes winning the ECAC Hockey playoffs virtually the only route for the Big Red. That has to be disappointing when just three weeks ago, Cornell was in position for an at-large bid.
I mentioned eight at-large berths as the maximum still up for grabs. Upsets in Hockey East, the Big Ten, the NCHC, and anyone other than Quinnipiac winning the ECAC means fewer at-large bids. What teams do you see, if any, that are teams to watch for an upset in a conference championship?
Jim: I feel like you are baiting me with this question as I have said all season that I feel like the top 14 in the PairWise will still make the field.
For the most part, that hasn’t changed. Obviously the AHA and CCHA champions will take the final two spots, but I do feel like the other four champions will come from teams inside the current top 14.
But I will answer the question.
Honestly, the ECAC has the best chance of an upset. Cornell is currently outside of the cut line and could win the tournament. I want to add Colgate and Clarkson to that list as well.
In the NCHC, unless Omaha goes on a run, I don’t see anyone busting the bubble. Big Ten, maybe Notre Dame, but not really.
That leaves me with Hockey East. Could New Hampshire make a run? Yes. Maybe if UConn gets hot with a goalie. But honestly, I think one of the best Hockey East teams win that title.
I still hold the cut line at 14, relying on Quinnipiac to win in Lake Placid. Maybe naive, but that’s where I am today.
