Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Jim: Well, Ed, the final weekend of college hockey’s conference playoffs is upon us, which means we had some exciting quarterfinal and semifinal action this past weekend.
There were a lot of favorites that ultimately advanced. The only true upsets in my mind were St. Lawrence, the No. 7 seed in the ECAC, sweeping Colgate in the ECAC quarterfinal and AIC, the No. 5 seed in Atlantic Hockey, advancing past No. 2 seed Holy Cross in three games in the AHA semifinals.
A third “semi-upset,” though, sent some shockwaves through the PairWise and that was Omaha, rallying from a game down in its best-of-three quarterfinal in the NCHC, to knock off Colorado College on the road, winning game three, 2-1.
With the series win, Omaha is now a lock for the NCAA tournament, going 11-2-2 down the stretch to earn that berth. At the same time, Colorado College, which was better than 90% to make the tournament after Friday’s overtime win to open the quarterfinal series, now will advance only in about 25 percent of the 4,096 remaining scenarios.
We’ve been talking about how closely bunched the PairWise has been from 10-19 for more than a month now. But this one series really had some serious ramifications for both the Mavericks and the Tigers.
Ed: I was shocked to see what this did to Colorado College’s NCAA chances. But what a great weekend for Omaha.
The Mavericks head into the NCHC Frozen Faceoff for the first time, and will be up against North Dakota, whom they beat twice at the beginning of March. It’s possible those two teams will meet again in the NCAA tournament. Omaha is the host of the Sioux Falls regional and will be there no matter what. The Fighting Hawks make sense to place there for attendance reasons. But with the NCAA avoiding in-conference match ups in the first round, the committee needs to hope for North Dakota to stay a 1 seed and Omaha a 3 seed – or 2 and 4 – as a 1-4 or 2-3 game will be avoided. We think.
Meanwhile, CC needs to watch and wait, and like every team on the bubble, root for Quinnipiac.
Speaking of the ECAC, St. Lawrence did catch my attention with the sweep of Colgate. They’ll meet the defending national champion Bobcats at Lake Placid in the semifinals Friday. The two teams split during the regular season with each winning at home.
While AIC’s win in three games over Holy Cross may seem to be an upset, only four points separated the two teams in the standings and just five separated second place from seventh in that league. AIC is on a bit of a heater heading to take on a similarly hot RIT in front of what’s will be a sellout crowd of 4,300 on Saturday. The Gene Polisseni Center box office opened Monday at 10 a.m. and all available tickets were sold out before noon. A few tickets reserved for season ticket holders may be released on Friday. This sort of experience is exactly what the league was looking for in the move to on-campus venues.
While it wasn’t a major upset, UMass did win on the road over Providence to keep its Hockey East and NCAA hopes intact. A great Hockey East final four at TD Garden is ahead for this weekend.
Jim: Conferences don’t “root” for teams in the conference playoffs, but if Hockey East did, I believe Boston College, Boston University, Maine and UMass would be the best teams to impact attendance. There is a good chance that the TD Garden could sellout one or both nights this weekend.
On the ice, UMass is the only team that needs to play for an NCAA bid. Win on Friday against No. 1 BC and UMass locks up its hopes. Lose, though, and there is a host of scenarios that have to go right for the Minutemen, most importantly of which is that Quinnipiac must win the ECAC.
That sounds easier than it is for the Bobcats. As much success as Quinnipiac has had since joining the ECAC, including three Frozen Fours and a national championship, QU has only won the ECAC title once. Sure, St. Lawrence might appear as a mismatch on paper, but so did Colgate a year ago.
Honestly, so many eyes will be on Lake Placid, but mine will be focused on Dartmouth. Reid Cashman has done a fantastic job getting this team to a competitive level so quickly after taking over once COVID ended.
Is there any team similar to Dartmouth that you’ll be watching this weekend?
Ed: A team that is in a similar situation to Dartmouth that I’ll be watching is St. Cloud State. Winning the three-game series against Western Michigan has kept the Huskies’ hopes alive for the NCHC title and the NCAA tournament.
SCSU needs at least a semifinal win over Denver to have an opportunity to be an at-large team, and they’ll need some help even with that. DU and St. Cloud met only twice in the regular season, with the Huskies dropping the first night and getting the shootout win point in a 4-4 tie.
It was an emphatic game-three win for St. Cloud against the Broncos, especially after a lopsided loss the night before. St. Cloud is a team that has been on the wrong side of a couple of bad bounces and, arguably, bad replay decisions and making it to the tournament would be a bit of vindication for Brett Larson’s squad.
You mentioned conferences not rooting for teams in the playoffs, but two other leagues that have to be happy are the Big Ten and the CCHA. Bemidji State, which is a torrid 10-0-1 in the last 11 games, hosts Michigan Tech this coming weekend, with the Beavers looking for their first conference title since winning the defunct CHA in 2009.
Meanwhile, it’s one of the greatest rivalries in college hockey with Michigan State welcoming Michigan to Munn. The Spartans are looking for their first Big Ten crown, while Michigan is looking to three-peat.
The final four format for Hockey East and ECAC Hockey still makes sense given the geography of those two eastern conferences. But the on-campus format for three conferences – and the NCHC next year – sure looks to be a smart move, especially when travel, experience, and attendance are all considered.
Jim: I think the overall financial impact makes sense for all four leagues that next year will be on campus. It’s possible that even the ECAC might consider that format as there isn’t a big difference between any on-campus arena and Lake Placid, though former commissioner Steve Hagwell would make me acknowledge the magical setting of Placid.
But for Hockey East, TD Garden will likely always be home. Geographically, any team can reach the Garden easily (Maine is about 4.5 hours away, the longest of any school). And the league and building still keep ticket prices reasonable (parking in the area is another story, but I digress).
I guess I could go down the rabbit hole of how this should impact the NCAA tournament at some point, as moving on campus will likely be discussed in Naples this spring. But I do love the thought of how packed RIT, Michigan State and Bemidji State will be the weekend. I look forward to watching the replays of all three of those games ahead of the regionals.
We do have a chance that all six conference champions could win this weekend, something unprecedented. You and I host the USCHO Edge podcast. If you had to set the over/under on number of No. 1 seeds that won’t win, where would you place it? I would aim for 1.5.
Ed: I think your over/under is perfectly placed.
Now, do I take the over or the under? I’m going to say over, perhaps with one visitor winning in the on-campus finals, and one underdog winning in the groups of four.
Things will be so much clearer in the NCAA picture with Friday’s games in the books. With the CCHA playing its championship on Friday night, just five games will take place on Saturday. And that reduces the current 4,096 possibilities to a number that’s manageable in my brain: 32. Everyone will know what has to happen by then without requiring a bulletin board of sticky notes and yarn.
I’m looking forward to six terrific championships played in front of massive crowds this weekend. What could be better than that?
