There’s still more than a month left of regular-season hockey yet to be played, but as now, the NCHC is on course to have three of its teams play in this year’s NCAA tournament.
That could certainly change, especially if a lower-seeded team goes on a tear at just the right time and wins the conference’s playoff title or, depending on the team, picks off the right opponents. Unpredictable as that might be, it would be a fool’s errand to say it won’t happen.
It’s only coming up on three years ago that Minnesota Duluth won the 2022 NCHC Frozen Faceoff as the No. 4 seed. St. Cloud State did the same in 2015, and in 2014, Denver won as the sixth seed.
The landscape is a little different now, of course. Western Michigan is one of the best teams in college hockey, and if the NCAA tournament began today, the Broncos and Denver would both be in line for No. 2 regional seeds. Arizona State would also make the cut, in the Sun Devils’ first season as a conference member.
Could we still have more NCHC teams fight their way into contention? Time will tell, and you already know to follow my colleague Jim Connelly’s weekly Bracketology columns to see who might be going where come late March. But for now, let’s take a closer look at the NCHC’s contenders.
Western Michigan (No. 5 in the PairWise Rankings): The Broncos are fresh off a road split against a Colorado College team that appears to be course-correcting, picking up wins over ranked opponents in two of the Tigers’ last three games. But WMU is generally great on the road (8-3-0) and is 9-1-1 at home, too, leaving the Broncos in good shape down the stretch. They have a reasonably favorable remaining schedule, too, with only two games against teams currently in line for a NCAA tournament spot (at Arizona State, Feb. 21-22).
Denver (tied with Boston University for 8th): The Pioneers did split a road series two weeks ago against a Minnesota Duluth team that has been struggling for consistency, but on the whole, what’s not to like about the defending national champions? They’re 4-1-1 in their last six games, and after only falling in a 16-round (sixteen!) overtime shootout last Friday against Omaha, DU came back the next night and scored 11 unanswered goals in an 11-2 win. Imagine putting seven past your conference’s reigning goaltender of the month. Or don’t, because the Pioneers just did it.
Arizona State (13th): I’m not sure there’s a team I’m higher on at this point than the Sun Devils. After dealing with several injury concerns with top-tier players earlier this season, ASU has won five of its last six games. Here’s hoping that Artem Shlaine makes a quick but safe return to the lineup, following a scary hit last Saturday at Miami that sent him awkwardly flying into the bottom of the boards behind the RedHawks’ net. He is listed as day-to-day, which, for whatever it’s worth, is a far better prognosis than it could’ve been.
North Dakota (22nd): It’s hard to know what to make of the Fighting Hawks. They’re hovering above the .500 mark both home and away, but after losing three of four against Arizona State and Western Michigan, UND came back last week and took five points with a regulation win and shootout victory at St. Cloud State. The Hawks still have Denver and WMU left to play, as well as Omaha and Duluth down the stretch, but I’m very interested to see how UND’s home series this weekend with Colorado College will go. If the Hawks manage a couple of convincing wins there, bundle that with their 6-2 win Saturday at SCSU and you’ve got a team looking plenty dangerous.
The NCHC’s chances for additional NCAA tournament teams goes down considerably after UND: St. Cloud State is 29th in the PairWise, with Omaha 33rd, Colorado College 35th, Duluth 37th and Miami tied for second-bottom at 62nd.
But again, anything can happen. Watch this space.
