It’s hard to believe, but we’re entering the final weekend of the regular season in Atlantic Hockey America.
Well, there’s one extra game to be played on Monday, Feb. 24 – more about that later.
The format is as follows:
First Round, March 1
Single elimination
No. 11 seed at No. 6 seed
No. 10 seed at No. 7 seed
No. 9 seed at No. 8 seed
Quarterfinals, March 7-9
Best-of-three series
Lowest surviving seed at No. 1 seed
Next lowest surviving at No. 2 seed
Highest surviving seed at No. 3 seed
No. 5 seed at No. 4 seed
Semifinals, March 14-16
Best of three series
Lowest remaining seed at highest remaining seed
Second-lowest remaining seed at second-highest remaining seed
Championship Game
March 22
Lowest remaining seed at highest remaining seed
The final stretch
With one weekend to go in the regular season, much has been decided. We know the five teams who have earned the five first-round byes, but not their seeding. Seeds 6-11 are still mostly up for grabs.
What we know at this point:
– Holy Cross, Bentley, Sacred Heart, Niagara, and Army West Point have secured first-round byes.
– Holy Cross, Bentley and Sacred Heart will host quarterfinal series.
– Niagara and Army West Point are fighting for the final home ice slot in the quarterfinals.
– Canisius will host a first-round playoff game.
– Mercyhurst will be on the road in the first round.
After this weekend’s games, expect tiebreakers to come into play to determine tournament seedings. They are:
1. Head-to-head points (a change from last year’s head-to-head winning percentage).
2. Conference wins.
3. Head-to-head goal differential.
4. Goals allowed in head-to-head competition.
5. Head-to-head winning percentage in games against teams starting with the No. 1 seed down to the No. 11 seed.
6. Goal differential in games against teams starting with the No. 1 seed down to the No. 11 seed.
Here’s my take on possible outcomes this weekend. Any errors in calculations are mine.
HOLY CROSS
Currently: First
Games remaining: Home vs. Bentley, home vs. AIC
Possible seed: First-Second
Outlook: The Crusaders are unbeaten in their last 12 games and can wrap up their first regular season title since 2006 with a single point in their final two games.
BENTLEY
Currently: Second
Games remaining: At Holy Cross, at Sacred Heart
Possible seed: First-Fourth
Outlook: Bentley has clinched home ice in the quarterfinals and has an outside chance at its first DeGregorio Trophy but needs to win out and have Holy Cross go pointless in its final two games. The teams square off on Thursday.
SACRED HEART
Currently: Third
Games remaining: At AIC, home vs. Bentley
Possible seed: Second-Fourth
Outlook: The Pioneers were in the driver’s seat for most of the season but a series against Army West Point last weekend that saw SHU take just one point doomed its chances for first place. Sacred Heart will host a quarterfinal series.
NIAGARA
Currently: Fourth
Games remaining: at Canisius, home vs. Canisius
Possible seed: Second-Fifth
Outlook: Consistency has been key for the Purple Eagles. They have taken points in every conference series this season, heading into this weekend’s Battle of the Bridge series with Canisius. Niagara has earned a bye and has about a 95% chance of finishing in the top four and hosting a quarterfinal series.
ARMY WEST POINT
Currently: Fifth
Games remaining: At AIC, home vs. AIC
Possible seed: Fourth-Fifth
Outlook: The Black Knights are virtually locked into a fifth seed, meaning they get a bye but will be on the road in the quarterfinals. First is a final series with AIC, sure to be an emotional time for coach Brian Riley, who is retiring at the end of the season.
CANISIUS
Currently: Sixth
Games remaining: Home vs. Niagara, at Niagara
Possible seed: Sixth-Eighth
Outlook: The Golden Griffins will host a first-round game, opponent TBD. Last weekend they snapped a six-game losing streak and face archrival Niagara this weekend.
AIR FORCE
Currently: Seventh
Games remaining: At Robert Morris (2)
Possible seed: Sixth-Ninth
Outlook: The Falcons have struggled in the second half of the season, with just one regulation win since Jan. 11. But Air Force is still in excellent shape to host a first-round playoff game.
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL
Currently: Eighth
Games remaining: Home vs. Army West Point, at Army West Point, at Holy Cross
Possible seed: Seventh-10th
Outlook: The Yellow Jackets are looking at the final stretch of games in Division I program history. There’s a decent chance for a final home playoff game. AIC can clinch that by taking six points in its final three games.
ROBERT MORRIS
Currently: Ninth
Games remaining: Home vs. Air Force (2)
Possible seed: Seventh-10th
Outlook: The Colonials have struggled in the second half of the season (2-11-2 since the holiday break) but still have around a 30% chance of hosting a first-round game.
ROCHESTER INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Currently: Tenth
Games remaining: Home vs. Mercyhurst (2)
Possible seed: Eighth-11th
Outlook: The Tigers have a (very) slim chance of hosting a first-round game but the defending champs will most likely be on the road throughout the post season.
MERCYHURST
Currently: Eleventh
Games remaining: At RIT (2)
Possible seed: 10th-11th
Outlook: The Lakers will be on the road for as long they stay alive in the AHA tournament. They will need to sweep RIT in regulation this weekend to avoid finishing in the basement.
Better late than never?
The original schedule had American International hosting Holy Cross for a single game on Dec, 7, but AIC had no healthy goalies at the time.
Rather than forfeit, the schools worked with the league to reschedule, and the game will be played on Monday, Feb 24, two days after the season was supposed to end. The location was also moved from Springfield to Worcester.
I applaud the game being played as opposed to being declared a forfeit – players want to play. But the timing is less than ideal. Air Force has about a 90% chance of finishing in sixth-eighth place, good enough to host a first-round game. But the visiting team will have to scramble to make travel arrangements on just four or five days notice. More than one coach has pointed this out to me.
So we won’t get final standings/seedings until Monday evening. Hopefully this won’t present too much of a hardship to the team that gets paired with Air Force.
